The natural gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine didn't worry the European Union much until now. The conflict seemed limited to the everlasting quarrel over Ukraine's unpaid bill and Moscow's accusations concerning "hijacked" gas. After difficult negotiations and meetings, the European Commission received the assurance that neither Moscow nor Kiev would ever again hold importing countries hostage to their differences. The events of the last few hours and the many interruptions in deliveries show that Russia and Ukraine - which assure the production and transit of a quarter of the gas Western Europe consumes - do not keep their promises. The situation is worrying in the countries of Central Europe and the Balkans which have not had time to constitute reserves since the last dispute, in January 2006. The big countries of Western Europe - including Switzerland - are in a better position, even though the interruptions of deliveries at their borders may give rise to serious disruptions. Increased need due to the great cold and the ever-more-significant recourse to natural gas for electricity production only fuels the risks of a rapid succession of power failures.

    The European Union knows this, but prefers to negotiate softly with Moscow and Kiev. It wants at all costs to avoid a power struggle which serves no one. In spite of its efforts to diversify its supply towards the south, through the Caspian fields, and, undoubtedly one day soon through Iraq's and Iran's deposits, Europe does not have alternative routes to Siberia's great gas fields, at least for several years. Brussels could undoubtedly make Kiev listen to reason. The situation reigning in Moscow is far more worrying. The champion Gazprom is deeply in debt and facing real problems to honor all its contracts due to supply issues. Consequently, Russian cities are frequently deprived of gas and turn old coal plants back on to keep the lights on while assuring the deliveries promised to the West: flagrant and dramatic proof of the fragility of the network Gazprom controls. The most dangerous trap is not the quarrel, nor even, perhaps, the political issue between Moscow and its neighbors, but a bad surprise from the natural gas empire, unable to maintain pressure in its dilapidated pipelines.

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    Translation: Truthout French language editor Leslie Thatcher.