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Geithner's Plan Will Tax Main Street to Make Wall Street Richer

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

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Many financial experts have focused narrowly on the immediacy of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's plan while neglecting to consider certain long-term implications. (Photo-illustration: Everett Bogue /
t r u t h o u t)

    The new consensus among the experts who missed the housing bubble (EMHB) is that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's plan to subsidize the purchase of junk mortgages and their derivatives will help alleviate the stress on the banking system. That's good news.

    These geniuses have devised a plan that for $1 trillion (approximately equal to 300 million kid-years of SCHIP, the State Child Health Insurance Program) can alleviate the stress on the banking system. Note that no one claims that $1 trillion spent on the Geithner plan will actually clean up the banking system - that would be asking too much. The EMHB only assure us that this $1 trillion (more than enough to have energy conserving retrofits for every building in the country) will make things better. Isn't that enough?

    Oh, by the way, some people will get very rich off the Geithner plan. Some hedge and equity fund managers could make hundreds of millions or even billions off the Geithner plan. And, under current law, they will pay a lower tax rate on this money than a schoolteacher or firefighter. Are you sold yet?

    One other outcome of the Geithner plan is that the folks who bankrupted their banks and wrecked the economy will be able to continue to earn multi-million dollar salaries. Of course this is necessary, because who else has the skills to run these banks, other than the people who drove them into bankruptcy?

    For some reason, every plan the EMHB have developed so far involves using taxpayer dollars to subsidize the bankrupt banks and keep them breathing a little bit longer, while offering opportunities for other Wall Street actors to get hugely wealthy. Some people say that the EMHB keep coming up with plans that enrich the Wall Street crew because they are so closely tied to the Wall Street financial interests.

    It is, of course, possible that the EMHB are too closely tied to the financial industry, but it's also possible that they just lack the creativity and imagination to think of a plan that doesn't enrich the Wall Street crew. After all, these people lacked the ability to see an $8 trillion housing bubble, the largest financial bubble in the history of the world. So, let's see if we can help them out.

    The core problem is that many of the largest banks are bankrupt. They are currently concealing this bankruptcy by listing assets on their books at prices that are far above their market value. In principle, they can do this for a long time, unless the government forces them to write-down the value of these assets. As long as the banks are bankrupt, they will not make new loans, limiting the ability of many businesses to get capital.

    Instead of Geithner's plan to allow banks to sell these assets at a subsidized price, we can go the other way. Geithner could have announced a plan to clean up the banks, following a standard FDIC-type takeover.

    This approach could harness the power of existing bondholders to help the government clean up the banks quickly. Geithner could, for example, promise to honor the banks' commitments to bondholders in full, if the banks recognized their losses immediately. Bondholders, however, would be offered a lower payback rate for each month that the banks waited.

    So, if a bank waited one month, the bondholders would only get a guarantee for 90 percent of the value of their assets. If the bank waited two months, the payback would fall to 85 percent and so on. (Note the issue here is bank bonds that the government has no legal or moral obligation to pay off. The government will, of course, pay off the banks' FDIC-insured deposits.)

    Under this kind of a plan, bondholders would place enormous pressure on the banks to recognize their losses. Bank executives that refused to own up to the bank's bad assets might even face personal liability. In other words, executives who lie about their bank's assets might not just lose the bonuses that came out of TARP money, they also might lose the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars they "earned" during the housing bubble.

    If President Obama's advisers, all of whom are leading members of the EMHB camp, had more imagination, they might have devised a plan like this for dealing with the banking crisis. Instead, they came up with a plan that will enrich Wall Street and further punish Main Street.

    Congress can try to bring enough pressure to make President Obama reverse course. At the very least, Congress should insist that when this plan fails, Secretary Geithner and others involved in drafting the plan are sent packing. We cannot continue to have a system that always ignores the mistakes by those on top and only holds those at the bottom accountable. The EMHB already wrecked the economy once; how many more times will they get the opportunity?

  

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Dean Baker is the Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR's Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.

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Is this article an actual

Is this article an actual shock to anybody? Ol' Timmy boy was president of the Federal Reserve bank. Obama is a hoax. His team is a hoax. I remember him saying no lobbyists, well he's appointed the biggest group of banker lobbyist you could dream up. This dream team is thinking bigger than the US they want global control of money and in order to do that they need to drive the US economy into the ground, run the dollar into the ground, steal and enslave us to debt, horde all the cash, then when they have the whole county on it's knees they will "relieve" us of our debt if we accept their bigger vision one world currency and one world government, which since we won't be able to make our mortgage or car payments we'll accept like the herd of sheeple we are... and we can kiss everything we love about this country goodbye including your rights and the constitution. Enjoy we "voted" these fools in (hey I didn't vote for ol' Timmy). Here comes totalitarianism it's so close they can taste it. You people ready to throw these fools out yet?

This is absolutely screwed.

This is absolutely screwed. Obama may not want much to do with the liberals who brought him to power, but we need to make damn sure he listens on this one. Unbelievable that he campaigned against trickle-down economics. Absolutely unbelievable. I have never felt so powerless in my life. Not even when Bush was at the helm.

I am not sure how the plan

I am not sure how the plan Mr Baker recommends fixes the economic problem. Seems to me if banks regardless of how they recognize bad debt, foreclose on homes to get cash to pay bond holders, the problem for homeowners remains, as does the bank liquidity problem. I don't disagree that this subsidizing banks for losses incurred is undesirable. But having the US buy the toxic assets may help homeowners more than forcing banks to acquire cash by foreclosure. And it may give banks liquidity to begin lending again. Concurrently there should absolutely be Glass-Stegall style regulations and some trust busting of these gigantic financial organization who were allowed to become too large to fail.

I think the reason for this

I think the reason for this bailout that they are stealing money. I think a lot of the people who get into the banking business do so because they want to make a lot of money. So the banking business attracts a lot of greedy people. Greedy people are more likely to steal money. These bankers just finished looting their own banks, while paying themselves big bonuses to to it. Now they are using the government to steal more money. They won't stop until we either lock up the money or lock them up. They can't help it: they smell gold and it drives them crazy.

"The core problem is that

"The core problem is that many of the largest banks are bankrupt. They are currently concealing this bankruptcy by listing assets on their books at prices that are far above their market value." You are drawing a false legal conclusion from mis-stated facts. Most of the under-performing real estate assets that you are speaking about have already been written down so far that the big question about Geithner's rescue plan is whether the banks will sell at all; certainly not for the written-down price that they are currently carried at.

Different fox, same hen

Different fox, same hen house, same results. It is still the same players that took the banks and investment firms down with their greed that are now in charge of distributing the bailout funds. Any surprise that the program is only getting bigger. What do you call socialism when it applies only to the rich - because all rhetoric aside that is what is taking place? No one knows how much money is actually going to Wall Street on a daily basis and how large the commitment is and for how many years. Forget social security it has been spent to insure that Wall Street executives can retire at the same level of luxury to which they have become accustomed.

Well, if that does not beat

Well, if that does not beat all. It seems that everyone with an opinion has experts to verify their opinion. Who are these experts? Obama has experts too. Most of us have to depend on the expertise of those in charge - hoping they are correct. One thing that is different with the approach by Geithner, it is that they are willing to try something with the best information on have and be willing to change if something does not seem to work. The problems are so complicated that we have to treat the symptoms and at the same time look at correcting the systemic causes. Too much time has been placed on short-term fixes. I like the Presidents approach to look at making corrections to respond to symptoms but at the same time looking at treating the causes. This is refreshing. Nevertheless, we will have to wait and see where we are in 12 months. The dollar is still the preferred currency in the world and that makes us very solvent in comparison to the other countries. Since everything is relative, we are still a strong country.

And put back those to whom

And put back those to whom "fools" would be a compliment? Who in the world do you think you are kidding? The last administartion were perhaps the worst this country has ever seen, and while it seems that Obama has fallen in with the power structure, he would have to go amazingly far to be as putrid as the scuzz creeps that just left office. You know, the ones who allowed 9/11 to occur, the ones who totally destabilized the middle east, got us trapped in Afghanistan, the ones who dismantled FEMA and then paid the price in Katrina, the ones who appointed fresh faced obedient politicos to watch the billions sent to reconstruct Iraq but helped steal all the money? Obama's people would have to go further than is possible to get more foolish, corrupt, incompetent, venal, evil and stupid, as the last bunch of morons were/are Get real. McCain-Palin would have been far far far worse, they still haven't a clue as to what to do in the least. Whine, they seem very good at that.

I just cross-posted this

I just cross-posted this over on another Truthout article about the health care crisis. If Geithner's plan is such great shakes, hey why can't we apply lessons learned from the Financial Crisis to Health Care? We'll just have the government pay 85 cents on the dollar when health insurance companies buy up a "claim risk" (a person who likely has health problems and therefore isn't profitable). Just like the government is paying 85 cents on the dollar to banks in order to get them to buy toxic securities! That outta get the "frozen" health care market flowing again. And we'll only need to print up another elevendy-quintillion worthless dollars in order to do it. I don't see what could possibly go wrong. Do you?

I was listening to Bernie

I was listening to Bernie Sanders on Thom Hartmann last Friday, and he tacitly admitted that the banksters were threatening retaliation if they weren't given what they wanted. I assume that they are threatening to take away all of the money while jacking up prices and cutting off the supply of food and other necessities. My question is: Who cares? All the public has to do is ensure the orderly distribution of goods and services while we establish a new monetary base. International trade can continue using the exchange of goods and letters of credit, instead of the exchange of currency. Will we have to use force to defeat the oligarchs? There exists a distinct possibility that we will. But isn't what they're doing to us now?

Will the US--all those

Will the US--all those people who cry "socialism" and deplore every social welfare proposal-- ever stop socializing loss and privatizing profit in the financial world?

"they smell gold and it

"they smell gold and it drives them crazy" That's what the Aztecs said of the Spaniards. These guys just figured out an easier way of getting hold of it.

I don't trust a guy who

I don't trust a guy who cannot keep track of paying his own taxes. Same old, same old... one of Obama's more disappointing appointments.

The only solution is to

The only solution is to throw ALL the bums out and start fresh - including Obama. How could he possibly appoint Geithner is an enigma to me as well as some of his other appointments. As far as I am concerned, yes, totalitarianism is just around the corner - watch out Americans - there are no quick fixes for this. GREED and the Military Industrial Complex have destroyed not only the last super-power but is busy destroying the entire world economy. NAFTA was a joke, I said it then and I believe that it was planned by the elite to give them exactly what they wanted. A "service" society or a "consumer" society are not sustainable and they had to know that!

Folks, we don't have a

Folks, we don't have a credit problem (banks wont lend)--we have a people are too scared to buy and so they don't ask for credit from the banks problem. Reading the NYTimes last week, I learned that, despite Obama's ravings that payrolls will be missed unless the banks are whole, not one large company has missed a payroll, nor have the car rental companies (to take one example on an segmewnt of the economy) suffered because they can't get loans to buy new cars--they are suffering because fewer people are renting. Besides, the banks don't really enjoy lending out money. There's not much money there. They enjoy taking in subprime junk mortgages and turning them into AAA rated securities--i.e. turning crap into gold.That sells (sold) like crazy. That's a much easier buck for them to make. It's also what led to the world-wide economic meltdown. In short, the banks, AIG, hedge funds, etc. are quick-buck fraudsters. Capitalism has finally developed its own economic weapons of mass destruction: cdo's, quants, credit default swaps, securitization, mega-million dollar salaries. Combine this with the usual greed, fraud and avarice and you have a killer system. Except it will kill itself.

"They are currently

"They are currently concealing this bankruptcy by listing assets on their books at prices that are far above their market value." - Okay, here's the new plan: let's all "list our assets" at far above their market value, then take out huge loans against said assets and start buying all kinds of crazy shit we don't need or want! Seriously, I got this Schwinn here, newly listed market value of $34,000 (not including helmet,) a sofa with a market value easily of $11,500, and the cat's box has got to be in the $5-700 range, for sure. Hey, look at that - I'm no longer bankrupt anymore either!!

Re: freelyb. Obama is right

Re: freelyb. Obama is right in line with Reagan now. I feel the same betrayal. Of course McCain/Palin would be worse. They're stupid. But smart can screw us over subtlety. I wonder why they're not bothering to.

The Confidence Man and Tiny

The Confidence Man and Tiny Tim. What a crew for the Good Ship Lollypop as she sails toward the abyss. "Stop making sense." - Talking Heads

Putting people like Paulson

Putting people like Paulson and Geithner in charge of the Treasury Department is like putting John Gotti in charge of the Justice Department or making Rush Limbaugh the head of the DEA.

Anonymous didn't see how

Anonymous didn't see how Baker's plan would solve the problem, since Banks would be forced to call mortgages to raise cash, causing distress to borrowers. Distress can't be avoided -- but WHO is managing the portfolio will have big impact on borrowers. Existing bankers and bond holders may not be the most satisfactory. AND, this solution would also leave lots of doubts about future solvency (and so impeded lending, even trade credit). How about natinalising all nonsolvent banks immediately. Wipe out the equity and bond holders, both of whom are partly responsible for the mess. INstall new management. Restructure banks so no surviving bank will be "too large to fail." And correct the credit freeze by providing the security of the state, until the restructured banks can again be sold. Existing borrowers would still have to be dealt with, but perhaps in a more orderly and humane fashion than under the Baker plan. Also, replace the "economic team" with people less beholden to the financial powers that (used to?) be.

AND SO---- THE GREAT

AND SO---- THE GREAT HOODWINKING CONTINUES....

Simple strategy to a better

Simple strategy to a better solution: Hold another Forum on the topic of the Bailout and the Economic Stimulus suggestions. THIS TIME, invite as Organizers and Presenters ONLY THOSE economists, leaders, writers, and labor people who predicted this economic disaster and accurately described what was likely to happen given the anti-regulatory free-for-all climate of the past decades.

Geithner Put to the Stress

Geithner Put to the Stress Test: It's been a week since Geithner released his plan. NO ONE IN THE MEDIA has done a serious anlysis of what the plan does. It's amazing, we are spending a trillion dollars and no one pulls out a calculator. Let's d0 some first grade numbers, call it are you smarter than a six year old stress test. Dean, I hope you read this! Banks want 60% for their toxix assests or 60 cents on the dollar. Going market price is 30 cents on the dollar. Say we partner with some Hedge Fund each paying 7.5% for a total of 15% or 9 dollars total. The Fed backs up the rest with a loan. The only way the investor makes a profit is if the asset is in the end worth more than 60 dollars. If not the investors are whiped out. A first grader gets this, CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg haven't come this far. So why would an investor buy junk at 60 when it's going for 30 on the open market? I have the answer, but I think I'll come back tomorrow and post it. If you want to know the real reason why Geithner is casting a trillion dollars at this, let me know by posting a response that you want to know. It's very odd that if you look at the math you will find a easy reason "why" we are being taken again. Geithner thinks us so dumb as to not get his con. He's right so far and we are down a trillion. I'll check back tomorrow to see if there is any interest. I can tell you Barney Frank won't tell you this answer. There's a trillion dollars at stake! I emailed Micheal Moore but no response, I emailed Jim Hightower and Daily Kos, but no response. Right now you are out a trillion dollars. You lost to Geithner's con.

Gates, Salazar,

Gates, Salazar, Geithner....How many more and how much longer....I am still willing to give Obama some slack but the rope is tightening!

It appears that the their

It appears that the their plan of total theft of the taxpayer is going to succeed! This administration is pulling a very similar kind of deception that the Bush/Cheney cabal did just after the 9-11 fiasco. And we are buying it hook, line and SINKER!!! IN THE END THESE CROOKS WILL HAVE DESTROYED AMERICA AND SET THEMSELVES UP AS THE ARCH CROOK CONTROLLERS OF THE PLANET. I know that most of you have succumbed to the psychological warfare (brainwashing hypnosis) that has been waged most effectively on the American public and thus are convinced that me and others who see the implementation of the PNAC (Plan for a New American Century) are just a bunch of crazy conspiracy theorists! Wake-up my countrymen! We are conspiracy factualists!

No takers on the Geithner

No takers on the Geithner Con. Oh well, wave a trillion dollars goodbye. 1 trillion dollars would buy 50 million high fuel effiecient cars and trucks. This would end our dependence on Mid-eastern oil, cut our transportation carbon footprint in half, provide a solid industry with products for the world and the added plus is that we would get back our entire investment plus interest. Instead we threw the trillion into a black hole to make the super wealthy whole on their bad investments. We bought yaughts, multimillion dollar townhomes and mansions. Things that do the planet little good. As a friend said, we've been hope-a-doped. American has lost it's soul. Only a few voices in the wilderness against this madness. Our leaders are blind, lack courage or sold us out. Thank you Truthout for being here!

This article is a complete

This article is a complete misread of the Geithner Plan. To take just one example: "... some people will get very rich off the Geithner plan. Some hedge and equity fund managers could make hundreds of millions or even billions off the Geithner plan." Excuse me, the Geithner Plan caps all hedge and fund managers' profits at 17% of all the Plan's profits. The government gets the rest. If you hate Wall Street, then you'll hate any plan that tries to clean up after its excesses so long as that plan doesnt abolish Wall Street. Well guess what? If Obama tried to do that, he'd use up 200% of his political capital in the first week, and while doing so, would fail to prevent this recession from turning into a depression. You want major Republican gains in the House and Senate in 2010? Then please do prevent Obama from pragmatic action to end the recession.

Just bring back

Just bring back Glass-Stegall. Banks should be banks, insurance companies insurance companies, and investment firms investment firms. They shouldn't be doing each others business. Really simple solution. and I agree with the post that it is perhaps a good idea for the government to buy these toxic assets and that homeowners might be helped from that. Undoubtedly the caps on what the capitalist crooks can take home as pay is also a great idea. Let's take that a few steps further. Let's have a maximum wage for individuals of $5 million take home a year. Isn't that enough to live on? Anything above goes into the Federal Treasury as it would be TAXED. Budget deficits will be a thing of the past, and there will be plenty of money for both guns and butter, and the incentive to be a hedge fund crook or predatory lender will go away. These people can look for real jobs, like being a cop, school teacher, or computer sales person.

That Didn't Take Long

That Didn't Take Long (Gaming PPIP) I told you so..... The huge subsidy to banks hidden inside of Tim Geithner's public-private partnership program may already be leading banks to load up on securities they plan to sell at inflated prices. According to the New York Post, Citi and Bank of America have been aggressively buying up Alt-A and ARM mortgage backed securities, sometimes paying more than the going rate of around 30 cents on the dollar. .... Recently, securities rated AAA have changed hands for roughly 30 cents on the dollar, and most of the buyers have been hedge funds acting opportunistically on a bet that prices will rise over time. However, sources said Citi and BofA have trumped those bids. There's nothing complicated about this at all. Buy for 30 cents, sell to the PPIP for 50 cents, pocket a quick (and huge) profit immediately and nobody's the wiser. Oops - now someone is the wiser. Oh darn. The reason ALT-A (liar loans) and Option ARM securities are trading at 20-30 cents on the dollar is that nearly all of those "loans" were either made to someone who lied about their income, couldn't afford the reset/recast payment and is underwater on their house (and thus can't refinance), or both. When those loans default (and most of them eventually will, even if they're paying now) recovery is extraordinarily poor; 30 cents is likely just about right. Get the BBQ Sauce.