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It's a Depression

by: Robert Reich  |  Robert Reich's Blog

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Tent cities are popping up around the country, like this homeless campsite near Sacramento, California, an area hard hit by the economic downturn. (Photo: Reuters)

    The March employment numbers, out this morning, are bleak: 8.5 percent of Americans officially unemployed, 663,000 more jobs lost. But if you include people who are out of work and have given up trying to find a job, the real unemployment rate is 9 percent. And if you include people working part time who'd rather be working full time, it's now up to 15.6 percent. One in every six workers in America is now either unemployed or underemployed.

    Every lost job has a multiplier effect throughout the economy. For every person who no longer has a job and can't find another, or is trying to enter the job market and can't find one, there are at least three job holders who become more anxious that they may lose their job. Almost every American right now is within two degrees of separation of someone who is out of work. This broader anxiety expresses itself as less willingness to spend money on anything other than necessities. And this reluctance to spend further contracts the economy, leading to more job losses.

    Capital markets may or may not unfreeze under the combined heat of the Treasury and the Fed, but what happens to Wall Street is becoming less and less relevant to Main Street. Anxious Americans will not borrow even if credit is available to them. And ever fewer Americans are good credit risks anyway.

    All this means that the real economy will need a larger stimulus than the $787 billion already enacted. To be sure, only a small fraction of the $787 billion has been turned into new jobs so far. The money is still moving out the door. But today's bleak jobs report shows that the economy is so far below its productive capacity that much more money will be needed.

    This is still not the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it is a Depression. And the only way out is government spending on a very large scale. We should stop worrying about Wall Street. Worry about American workers. Use money to build up Main Street, and the future capacities of our workforce.

    Energy independence and a non-carbon economy should be the equivalent of a war mobilization. Hire Americans to weatherize and insulate homes across the land. Don't encourage General Motors or any other auto company to shrink. Use the auto makers' spare capacity to make busses, new wind turbines, and electric cars (why let the Chinese best us on this?). Enlarge public transit systems.

    Meanwhile, extend our educational infrastructure. So many young people are out of work that they should be using this time to improve their skills and capacities. Expand community colleges. Enlarge Pell Grants. Extend job-training opportunities to the unemployed, so they can learn new skills while they're collecting unemployment benefits.

    Finally, accelerate universal health care.

  

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Your observations are well

Your observations are well grounded

"Capital markets" need to

"Capital markets" need to "unfreeze"?? More "stimulus" needed?? How very "caring" to focus on the jobless. At least he has an inkling that the $787Bn. hasn't resulted in many jobs. Why? Because the Market Makers in the "capital markets" are bankrupt, and the Treasury is being looted by the owners of the Federal Reserve Bank, while the viability of the US$ is being destroyed, along with the nation's ability to finance its legitimate operations. If we just let the losers go bankrupt and the gamblers go broke, the assets and properties that "shake loose" will be put back in play. So much of the "bubble wealth" was and is imaginary that the US Gov't. should not be trying to protect its "owners" from loss. Mr. Reich may be more part of the problem than part of the solution. His ideas do not seem critically relevant to the need to get the dead wood out of the system, take the monstrous losses, and move on. The government needs to allow this to happen. Some new programs are, indeed, indicated, but as adjunct activity, not the main thrust, and NOT with newly-printed money. The US Treasury and the credit worthiness of the nation should not be squandered on private banking and insurance business. Mr. Reich knows this. He does not seem to comprehend the size or the true nature of the looming disaster which now threatens the nation, itself, as well as that bunch of politically dominant multinational corporations. To equate the national interest with the interests of these corporations will soon be seen as the greatest folly in the history of America.

Speak out brother! This

Speak out brother! This could be the beginning of the beginning!

""Liar, Liar," are you

""Liar, Liar," are you responding to the article above your post? β€’ You accuse Mr. Reich of "not...comprehend[ing] the size or true nature of the looming disaster," yet the very title of his article is "It's a Depression." β€’ You accuse him of "equat[ing] the national interest with the interests of these [politically dominant multinational corporations," yet he specifically wrote "We should stop worrying about Wall Street. Worry about American workers. Use money to build up Main Street, and the future capacities of our workforce." β€’ What's more, I believe reflects exactly what is needed: β€’ "Energy independence and a non-carbon economy should be the equivalent of a war mobilization. Hire Americans to weatherize and insulate homes across the land. Don't encourage General Motors or any other auto company to shrink. Use the auto makers' spare capacity to make busses, new wind turbines, and electric cars. (Why let the Chinese best us on this?) Enlarge public transit systems. β€’ "Meanwhile, extend our educational infrastructure. So many young people are out of work that they should be using this time to improve their skills and capacities. Expand community colleges. Enlarge Pell Grants. Extend job-training opportunities to the unemployed, so they can learn new skills while they're collecting unemployment benefits. β€’ "Finally, accelerate universal health care." β€’ Sorry, "Liar, Liar"...you seem to have missed the point entirely.

Hey yeah! hey Yeah! so very

Hey yeah! hey Yeah! so very true. The worst of it is that there is no accountability for the fraud perpetrated against the American people and that the people are having to bail out failed deregulation. Geithner et al perpetuates failed ideology with failure their to let banks fail and all to protect the political elite 401 K and punish labor. It is as if all this happened because of Main Street bubble wealth which is part of the myth of a consumer society. Bottomline America cannot spend its way out of a Depression, there is no money to do that. Our government has failed its people by not protecting the welfare of the stateadditionally affecting the world over. The type of Capitalism we have seen previous to this point must die in order for the phoenix to rise from the ashes of a brave new renewable world of the next centuries technology which will allow us to shift the socio-economic paradigm. Until we muster courage to see the truth and act upon what is real and to make the change people need we will only continue to spiral down further. The truth about of the abyss is it is bottomless. It looks as if the people will have to rise up to force the politicos to see the light, obviously, they are not listening.

It's all true what you wrote

It's all true what you wrote on 'Sat, 04/04/2009 - 19:27' but if U.S. Government allowed the insolvent institution go bankrupt as most of us would like the United States would turn into something between Zimbabwe and Brazil so as of now the government needs to use all it's tricks to keep themselves in power and slow down the death of an empire. Btw adding (printing) money is a last resort move and if this doesn't work WWIII will overtake our planet.

Let's face it, the criminal

Let's face it, the criminal bankers, financiers, politicians, CEO's, and other assorted liars, thieves and cheats have taken all the money and run. They left our country bankrupt and will soon be moving to places where they can't be found and will leave us holding the bill. Let's pray it can be paid. This article leaves me feeling like we are pretty totally screwed. I will leave the door open for hope and am planning for the worst.

What is needed for the long

What is needed for the long term: 1. Public funding for political campaigns. 2. Government managed Single-Payer Health care. 3. Strong incentives for alternative energies and mass transit funded by raising gasoline tax. 4. Regulate financial institutions. 5. Cut military spending to defense only and shut down overseas military bases. 6. Raise minimum wage to a livable wage. 7. Reform foreign policy (no body hates us for our freedom). None of the above will happen without eliminating the influence of money in politics.

America deserves everything

America deserves everything it gets from the way it has treated people in the third world. At least when it has no more weapons to bomb villages more children outside the western sphere will get to grow to adulthood.

I would like to see the tax

I would like to see the tax INCREASE substantially for corporations that send our jobs overseas, like IBM, and DECREASE for jobs kept here. That may be the incentive corporations need to think twice about unemploying Americans. They should not profit from taking our jobs and selling their goods here.

Except, RR is off on two

Except, RR is off on two basic points: the majority of 'good' jobs are gone and are never coming back, and a few hundred thousand "green" and shovel jobs won't make a dent. Plus, even if we started building stuff that the world wanted to buy on a mass scale, we're two generations removed from a skilled, not to mention motivated, industrial work force. Second, the presumption that "consumers" will start living above their means and buying tons of useless crap again is both silly - a large percentage have experienced a paradigm shift - and sad, because of the fact that our "economy" has to rely on such a stupid premise to begin with...

Hear, hear!

Hear, hear!

Allow all medical expenses

Allow all medical expenses past the first $1000 to be tax deductible. Give tax breaks for students repaying their loans. Make the self-employment tax non-punitive and fair. Give extra cash to states whose legislators have demonstrated basic mental skills. Buy government vehicles that do not guzzle gasoline. Administer breathalyzer tests at the entrances to Congress.

If the US manufactured more

If the US manufactured more of what other people wanted, then prosperity wouldn't have to rely on a constant & growing consumerism of Americans. Yes, we need universal health care--single payer universal health care. Too bad Obama & almost every member of Congress has decided that just can't be. The health insurance industry is just too powerful. But we can still spend billions on armed actions we're losing and billions on missile defense shields, & new weapons. And of course, continue to bailout the banksters. Good to know what matters to the Chief Executive & members of Congress. Maybe we'll get better candidates in 2010 & 2012.

We have been going down ever

We have been going down ever since Bill Clinton and the Bush Family passed and promoted Nafta, Privatization, The New World Order, One world Economy, WTO, and all those fancy titles. Senators trading favors like Senator Dodd and AIG and his getting a pardon for his gangster buddy for other personal favors. Dodd and his Ilk should be removed from office. The Demoratic party since Clinton has doublecrossed the working classes and destroyed the economy and our industrial base. We are in a major depression. Obama does not have a clue..

Yes, Anonymous, to every

Yes, Anonymous, to every point you make in your "What is needed for the long term" post!

David: don't get snookered

David: don't get snookered by his tone, OK? Mr. Reich is voicing his "concerns" for the working man, as well as the "safe" social programs. How reasonable and wonderful!! But, David, not where his true emphasis has been--Citi, Wall Street, repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act. You want to buy his b.s. propaganda, be my guest. He has no issue with the looting of the Treasury--he's one of those who say, "We must DO something; we can't fail to act!!", yet have no cogent reasons for doing anything--just Spend More Money. He just loves what the Fed. & Treasury are "doing"!!

It started with Reagan.

It started with Reagan.

What's needed in the long

What's needed in the long term is right on. I'm reminded that years ago the Tobin Tax was suggested: 1/4 of 1% tax on every currency speculation gamble, $1.5 trillion daily. That would generate $250 billion a year,enough the UN says to clean up our ravaged environment, provide basic healthcare, nutrition, education, clean water and sanitation for every person on earth. And imagine if we added the tax to hedge funds transactions as well ( until we outlawed them all). Isn't it time for the Tobin tax?

It began with Reagan and the

It began with Reagan and the ending of the Fairness Doctrine in Media, which allowed for the emergence of 24/7, non-debated political ranting machines..., and then... progressed with the almost complete elimination of Media ownership Regulations, which allowed for a reduction/concentration of media ownership entities down from the wide variety of a couple hundred 'mom&pops' to just a few gigantic corporations which now control almost all the News and Information Pipelines in America... AND THAT TOGETHER... is what allowed the Small, Wealthy, Corporate, CONservative Political Class to undertake the GREATEST HOODWINKING IN HISTORY and, just like a bunch of Con Artists with relentless tag lines like 'Less Government' and 'Tax Cuts' and 'Liberals are Evil' ...,they were able to talk enough of the American Public into going along with their Scheme to transfer the largest amount of wealth and power in human history from the working middle class to the wealthy class and do it under the foisted illusion that such concentrations of wealth would lift all boats.... And so---- WAH LAH..!!!... :-D~~~~ How does it feel to know you've been conned for 30 freekin years...? Better still---> The CON Continues...!!!!... I mean... look around... Who owns the Media..?... Who is still out there ranting the 'same old' song and dance...? .... Why does spelling CONservative like that seem to make sense..?... :-D

We can still do this, but it

We can still do this, but it is starting to feel too late if we don't get going with the suggestions made in Mr. Reich's lat three paragraphs. I may add, that we definitely need not be a "supply sider" economy. I know a couple who have 8 big screen TV's. WHY?? Gluttonous consumption has to stop. Although I'm not sure it is our fault, the psychological manipulation by corporative advertisers to sell us things we don't need, like replacing a TV instead of fixing it. It is just gross, how wasteful we've become.

A volcano crater is a

A volcano crater is a depression, this is the grand canyon!!

Two additions to Robert

Two additions to Robert Reich's always helpful analysis and appreciated advocacy for workers: (1) Student Loan forgiveness--this is the sole barrier to my purchasing a condo so I can be out of the rental market. It is also the sole barrier to any other credit card purchase over $500. Help!!! (2) How do we help our economy yet move away from our over-dependence on consumer spending to drive it? We must save; we must spend within our means; focus on necessities instead of luxuries is a good thing for a "simple living" goal that many of us have. Thanks for comments.

End the FED ACT OF 1913,

End the FED ACT OF 1913, which Wilson said was the gravest crime ever enacted on the American People.-it was set up by private banks of which Jefferson warned us about 200 years ago. If people lose their jobs give them free rent until things pick back up. Cut at least 50% of our GUNS AND BOMBS Budget and switch it over to the Electric Car we can plug into our solar powered roofs-which would put generations to work on something useful.

The saddest commennt that I

The saddest commennt that I have read is the one that ends with "Maybe we'll get better candidates" because that is the real problem, nearly everybody is waiting for "them" to do something instead of turning off American Idol and getting involved. It doesn't matter what kind of candidate "they" give you, you are just going to vote for whomever is currently in office without thinking. 2008 was supposed to be a change election but 88% of the House of Representatives was reelected. Why? Because you don't really care enough to find out who represents you and replace them thereby showing elected officials that their actions have consequences and that every election could be their last.

Obama needs to do what FDR

Obama needs to do what FDR did: full on New Deal type recovery, with the addition of tax-payer supported national medicare for all Americans. Screw the insurance companies. And regarding corporations, 2/3 don't even pay any taxes, for crissakes! Soak the rich, as they made their millions and billions off a minimum wage that didn't move up for decades. Cap anyone's pay at $5 million per year, taxing anything over at 100%. Tell the wealthy that it is their patriotic duty to start coughing up some tax dough to the Treasury or there will be a Bolshevik Revolution in the USA, and they'd rather keep their wealth than have political party goons take it ALL away from them, like in 1920 Russia!

The majority of our trading

The majority of our trading partners employ a value-added tax. This tax is subtracted from exports and imposed on imports. Our American corporations who use China as their manufacturing base do not want this system imposed in the US because it would make their goods more expensive compared to items made in the USA. If we want to equalize our trade imbalance and encourage exports, we must consider a value-added tax.

Ha! Ha! ha! Another Kynesian

Ha! Ha! ha! Another Kynesian light who thinks we will get out of it trough government spending. The capitalist system is just and virtuous, let it work its way out b y punishing the culprits and restart lean and mean. This Obama's interference means that the suffering will likely last 10 to 15 years rather than the 2 it should take to go back to normal.

As one of the probably

As one of the probably thousands of state workers who are due to be laid off at the end of the budget cycle, I tend to agree that it's a depression.

Reich is a bankster shill.

Reich is a bankster shill.

America deserves everything

America deserves everything it gets from the way it has treated people in the third world. At least when it has no more weapons to bomb villages more children outside the western sphere will get to grow to adulthood.