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The Bankrupt Debate Over Bankrupting Our Children

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

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President Obama discusses his budget proposal for 2010. Much of the budget debate has focused on deficit projections, yet according to Dean Baker in the accompanying article, resolving the deficit should not be our first priority. (Photo: AFP)

    Suppose that the federal government decided to give every newborn baby $200,000. That might seem like an extremely generous gift. However, by the peculiar accounting of those who claim to be watchdogs for future generations, this policy would be bankrupting our kids.

    If that is hard to understand then you haven't been reading The Washington Post or listening to the Blue Dog Democrats or following the work of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. This crew, along with the other deficit hawks inside the beltway, has decided that the way to measure intergenerational equity is to measure the size of the national debt, and this gift to newborns will undoubtedly increase the size of the debt.

    With a bit more than 400,000 kids born every year, this plan would add more than $1.6 trillion dollars to the national debt over the next two decades. No doubt the Peterson-Post crew would be decrying the unfairness of handing down this huge burden to our children.

    In their quest to cut Social Security and Medicare they have promoted a nonsense worldview in which the metric of how well we are treating our children is the size of the national debt. In the Peterson-Post world view, programs that spend money to better the plight of our children. For example, improving the education system or rebuilding the infrastructure or developing clean energy technology all make our children worse off, since their main measure of intergenerational equity is the size of the government debt.

    In reality, what determines the well-being of future generations is the whole world that we hand down to them: the public and private capital stock, the state of technical knowledge and the specific skills and education that we give the future workforce as well as the natural environment and resources.

    If we let the capital stock deteriorate or destroy the natural environment, then our children and grandchildren should be furious at us, even if we hand them a country with zero debt. The national debt is not only a bad measure of the burden born by future generations; it is not even a measure of intergenerational equity at all.

    At some point, everyone alive today will be dead. At that point, the government bonds that constitute the debt will be owned by our children or grandchildren. In other words, our children and grandchildren will be paying the interest burden to themselves. If future generations both receive and pay the interest on the debt, then how can it be, on net, a burden to them?

    There is an issue of foreign ownership of debt. But this is due to the trade deficit, which is a result of the over-valued dollar and has no direct connection with the budget deficit. If we had the same overvalued dollar, but no budget deficit or even national debt, then we would be in the same situation relative to foreign investors, except that they would be buying up more of the private capital stock rather than public debt. The outcome for future generations would be the same; a larger share of future income would be paid out to foreigners.

    However the Peterson-Post crowd doesn't want to talk about the overvalued dollar; that would offend the Wall Street crew. A lower dollar would give them less clout in the world, even if it would increase the competitiveness of US manufacturing and improve the economy that we hand down to our children. No, the Peterson-Post crew just wants to talk about cutting Social Security.

    The Peterson-Post crew's line on the debt is just straight bad logic and bad economics. If the money being spent today helps boost the economy out of the downturn, then it will lead to more growth, an improved public and private capital stock, better technology and a richer, cleaner world for our children and grandchildren, even if it is a world that comes with more government debt.

    Thinking people who care about future generations should be insisting that the government spend whatever is necessary to get the economy back on its feet, just as we spent as much as was necessary to win World War II. There is no serious prospect that we will face the same debt burden as we did after World War II, which happened to precede the most prosperous three decades in US history.

    The Peterson-Post crew strongly disagrees with this analysis. But remember, these are people who somehow could not see the $8 trillion housing bubble that exploded the economy. Remember that fact.

  

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Dean Baker is the Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR's Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.

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To finance our government,

To finance our government, historically, we taxed the wealthy. Now we increasingly borrow from the wealthy and tax the middle class to pay interest to the bondholders. This has the advantage for those who have accumulated wealth that it allows them to keep more of it, and in fact, to increase their wealth in times of high interest rates, i.e., when the money supply is being restricted. So, a basic problem with increasing national debt is not so much that it is a mechanism of generational transfer as that it is an economic transfer from the middle class that increases the concentration of wealth in our society. This, if it continues, will have more impact on the lives of our children than the mere magnitude of government debt.

the big fallacy in the

the big fallacy in the Peterson "bi partisan coalition" camp is the assumption that when the cost of living longer goes up... because we are living longer... that we will be too stupid to pay for it. of course if we plan to live longer but not pay for it... somehow borrow the money, then our debt will grow very large. but since the cost of paying for it is very small, it would be pretty stupid of us to just say, nope, living costs too much; we'll just cut off our heads instead. the cost of paying for your own future retirement is an extra 35 cents per week each year. this is while incomes are rising about ten dollars per week each year.

In Mr. Baker's world view

In Mr. Baker's world view (shared by Bernanke et al) debt doesn't matter since it can be paid for with printed money. The fundamental difference: the 1940's saw the US emerge as the world's greatest creditor nation. The new century finds US as the world's greatest debtor nation, and getting deeper in debt all the time. Sure, we can print up a bunch of shiny new dollars and give a pile to each newborn. This is a virtually cost free exercise, except -- oops! -- better move fast because the price of a first-class stamp just went up another 5% from 42 cents to 44 cents. By the time these newborns reach adulthood how many shiny new dollars will it take to mail a letter? If Mr. Baker believes being a debtor or a creditor doesn't matter, he is not living in the real world. As Dickens wrote in David Copperfield: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery." It was true then, it is true now. It is true for individuals, families, and nations -- both great and formerly great.

IT SEEMS THAT THE BASIS OF

IT SEEMS THAT THE BASIS OF OUR ECONOMY IS THE BANKING SYSTEM(FEDERAL RESERVE). IT TAXES US IN A WAY THAT WE CAN NEVER PAY BACK. (GIVE THE PEOPLE $100 AND TAX THEM 10%. THE FIRST YEAR, THEY GET $10 BACK IN INTEREST. THAT LEAVES US WITH $90. THE NEXT YEAR ANOTHER $10 IN INTEREST. WE NOW HAVE $80... AND IN 10 YEARS, WE HAVE NOTHING AND THE BANKING SYSTEM OWNS IT ALL.) STOP THE PRIVATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKING SYSTEM. IT IS BANKRUPTING US!

It is as fallacious to

It is as fallacious to ignore the cost to future generations of servicing public debt as it is to suggest that we "bequeath" to them nothing but debt. Of course, some deficit spending may buy infrastructure and intellectual capital. Some of it is wasteful - earmarks, farm subsidies, ethanol, anyone? Ultimately, deficit spending has to be repaid and should be limited to truly crucial needs. Not everything on the Obama "to spend" list is truly crucial.

It is truly amazing how the

It is truly amazing how the debt crowd cannot see the real debt we will leave our grandchildren if we do not invest in mitigating climate change, improving education, increasing healthcare, or reducing inequality. The only debt they see is, as the post explains, monetary debt owed by the population to their own government. Real environmental or social deficits are not visible to this crowd. Peterson is best known for seeking to replace social security with an alternative system that would have crashed spectacularly during the current financial crisis. Thankfully we did not listen to him then. We should not listen to him now.

Borrowing future wealth

Borrowing future wealth undermines representative democracy today. Representatives have control over spending and have the shortest elected term; this is no coincidence, it is the design of our democracy, exactly as put together by the founders of the United States. Spending the wealth of future generations insulates the taxpayers from the pain of funding government programs, which may or may not be a good idea, though it always assumes that we today know better how to spend the future's wealth than the future will. Deficit funding is stealing from unborn children so that representatives do not anger the voters and loose their jobs. Most of the deficit is used to fund endless war, a small portion is for logical infrastructure like bridges and schools, the rest is to stimulate corporate consumerism, which is destroying the planet. The deficit funded stimulus program is a premeditated crime against human freedom and the planet. The time has come for the United States to manage real money with a real central bank. If this does not happen PDQ, the US will join GM at the auction block.

The debt worriers always

The debt worriers always seem to want to focus on the social programs is where cuts need to be made. What about the bloated defense budget? For every billion dollars spent on defense 40,000+ people are employed. Yet, it seems to me that for every billion dollars spent on social programs almost twice as many people are employed. Granted no one is getting rich but again no one is starving. Large spending on defense for antiquated weapon systems employees less people and enriches the elite and plutocrats at the expense of many people.

Another fine piece that

Another fine piece that makes it clear what's really at issue in choosing an economic path for our country. But can I suggest a simpler acronym in place of "the experts who missed the housing bubble" (EMHB) -- which is a bit of a mouthful? How about just the BBE -- Bubble Blind Experts. There are plenty of these folks in the media world, still offering their tainted wares to those who don't remember their record.

Why is it that we believe

Why is it that we believe that the debts we contract will be paid by our children? That is tantamount to saying that the 30 year loan I'm pulling out to buy a house will be paid off by my children...

the wealthy profit by the

the wealthy profit by the governed and the government. They should pay every dime and do a little critical thinking about the effects of their pet tax breaks and the unproductive military spending

Continued growth based on

Continued growth based on more debt is just plain dumb. We are in the situation we are in because we have been living beyond our means on borrowed money. In reality, there has been little to no growth in the real economy for years. Basing a future on a money system that must create more and more debt to survive is unsustainable and all those in power know this. However, none of them are willing to face this reality and none of them are willing to take on the banking cartel that run this worldwide scam.

Whoa there! Just because you

Whoa there! Just because you got mad at what you call the "Post-Peterson crowd" is no reason to treat the subject of debt with shallow invective, and make us all guilty by association. I've been a Baker fan, but this is unworthy. There are plenty of good liberal reasons to oppose raising the national debt. You treat it as primarily a way to expand welfare spending. How about a way to pay for wars without taxing the rich? This idea that "we" owe it to "ourselves" wrongly assumes that the rentiers and the taxpayers are the same people.

It is really very simple.

It is really very simple. Whatever the economic policy is, if it is favored by the rich, it is sure to be a burden to everyone else. Can anyone think of an example that is contrary to this rule? I didn't think so...

To Anonymous who said

To Anonymous who said without qualification "Continued growth based on more debt is just plain dumb. " Then don't send your kids to college unless you can pay cash I guess? It all depends on what you are spending on and for what purpose. Right now we need to spend it on the infrastructure we have let crumble for the past few decades while also trying to get people working. If the economy drags for the next decade or more, we will be as far behind as if we spend it now trying to get things started.

To Anonymous - Maybe you

To Anonymous - Maybe you should read the whole article. Where does he say "debt doesn't matter "? Of course it matters but it's not the only issue to focus on, especially given today's economy. He does say "If the money being spent today helps boost the economy out of the downturn, then it will lead to more growth, an improved public and private capital stock, better technology and a richer, cleaner world for our children and grandchildren, even if it is a world that comes with more government debt. "

PERCEPTION IS EVERYTHING, it

PERCEPTION IS EVERYTHING, it seems, and the Obama White House has mastered the art of affecting consciousness in presenting itself, and particularly the β€œbudget cuts.” http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2009/05/obamas-aggressive-budget-cuts.html Obama is completely squandering an opportunity for reform.

Money is not wealth! You

Money is not wealth! You can't breathe, eat or drink it if the planet's going under, which is our current trajectory. If our practices aren't sustainable then it doesn't matter whether a country is indebted or not to ITSELF, or to any other country for that matter, there will be no economy. We have to move away from trying to assign a monetary value to everything, this is where the true fallacy lies. Money is just a currency we invented to trade objects which ultimately derive from the planet. In fact, money is just a fistful of dead trees. And the planet does not care or not if we have enough of it to go around.

A shift from a monetarist

A shift from a monetarist economy to the american credit system is urgently needed. The USA constitution allows to create credit for development in all senses. A profound look into American history will give the key answers to todays problems.

In the corrupt banking world

In the corrupt banking world a mortgage is a way of making 3 times the property price over 25 years. Its a great scam which has been making bankers rich for gernerations. So, why, when the governments of the west had the opportunity to nationalise banks and take over all the debt and, of course, all the long term repayments, did they choose to let the bankers off ? Instead of massive national debt for our children and grandchildren we could be looking forward to trillions of mortaged property coming to term. So, for the very poor we could have extended their repayment to 40 years giving them a chance to repay and making truck loads of money in the process. Oh Dear Is it too simple ?

Borrowing from ourselves?

Borrowing from ourselves? According to Dean Baker, "If future generations both receive and pay the interest on the debt, then how can it be, on net, a burden to them?" The problem is that the ones who hold the bonds and the ones who owe the money are not the same people. For one example, money we have borrowed from the Chinese will have to be paid by Americans.

There are only a finite

There are only a finite amount of goods being produced. Deficit spending takes those goods away from consumers RIGHT NOW. Deficit spending is an insidious scheme also known as the inflation tax. The spending is paid for at the time of purchase through inflation and every Dollar holder suffers through a loss of their purchasing power aka INFLATION. Inflation is only caused by money creation in our economic system. There is a reason why the FED no longer releases M3 money data; that is to hide what they are doing. We are doing with less because the government is taking more for war, power and control. Debt and interest is simply gravy.

Without commenting on the

Without commenting on the crux of the argument, I note an error in the number of kids born each year - it's off by a magnitude of 10. There are roughly 4 million live births each year in the U.S., not 400,000. That would add $16 trillion to the debt, not the $1.6 trillion cited.

Dean Baker fails to realize

Dean Baker fails to realize that buying yourself a victory in war, isn't the same as buying yourself out of an economic collapse. Also; he doesn't acknowledge or debate the broken bond policies which have so many people concerned about the rising debt ( for them, and their children ). The Democrats are printing money, and it's destroying the value ... Read Moreof our dollar on a daily basis. Tax inflation is on a faster rise then we've seen in decades. Debt and spending are at all time highs. But none of that really matters, I don't think Obama can make / break anything. I'll try to summarize; You cannot buy everyone in this country jobs, or the will to create jobs. Our economic solution doesn't revolve around a Presidents decision, or lack there-of. We issued him into power, and he's virtually worthless without us. We're the only ones that matter, and if our economy has any hope of achieving the same success it's seen in prior years, then we as Americans have to raise it ourselves.