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Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge

by: William Pesek  |  Bloomberg News

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(Photo: Gawker)

    It's a plot better suited for a John Le Carre novel.

    Two Japanese men are detained in Italy after allegedly attempting to take $134 billion worth of U.S. bonds over the border into Switzerland. Details are maddeningly sketchy, so naturally the global rumor mill is kicking into high gear.

    Are these would-be smugglers agents of Kim Jong Il stashing North Korea's cash in a Swiss vault? Bagmen for Nigerian Internet scammers? Was the money meant for terrorists looking to buy nuclear warheads? Is Japan dumping its dollars secretly? Are the bonds real or counterfeit?

    The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.

    The trillions of dollars of debt the U.S. will issue in the next couple of years needs buyers. Attracting them will require making sure that existing ones aren't losing faith in the U.S.'s ability to control the dollar.

    The dollar is, for better or worse, the core of our world economy and it's best to keep it stable. News that's more fitting for international spy novels than the financial pages won't help that effort. It is incumbent upon the U.S. Treasury to get to the bottom of this tale and keep markets informed.

    GDP Carriers

    Think about it: These two guys were carrying the gross domestic product of New Zealand or enough for three Beijing Olympics. If economies were for sale, the men could buy Slovakia and Croatia and have plenty left over for Mongolia or Cambodia. Yes, they could have built vacation homes amidst Genghis Khan's Gobi Desert or the famed Temples of Angkor. Bernard Madoff who?

    These men carrying bonds concealed in the bottom of their luggage also would be the fourth-largest U.S. creditors. It makes you wonder if some of the time Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spends keeping the Chinese and Japanese invested in dollars should be devoted to well-financed men crossing the Italian-Swiss border.

    This tale has gotten little attention in markets, perhaps because of the absurdity of our times. The last year has been a decidedly disorienting one for capitalists who once knew up from down, red from black and risk from reward. It almost fits with the surreal nature of today that a couple of travelers have more U.S. debt than Brazil in a suitcase and, well, that's life.

    Clancy Bestseller

    You can almost picture Tom Clancy sitting in his study thinking: "Damn! Why didn't I think of this yarn and novelize it years ago?" He could have sprinkled in a Chinese angle, a pinch of Russian intrigue, a dose of Pyongyang and a bit of Taiwan-Strait tension into the mix. Presto, a sure bestseller.

    Daniel Craig may be thinking this is a great story on which to base the next James Bond flick. Perhaps Don Johnson could buy the rights to this tale. In 2002, the "Miami Vice" star was stopped by German customs officers as he was traveling in a car carrying credit notes and other securities worth as much as $8 billion. Now he could claim it was all, uh, research.

    When I first heard of the $134 billion story, I was tempted to glance at my calendar to make sure it didn't read April 1.

    Let's assume for a moment that these U.S. bonds are real. That would make a mockery of Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano's "absolutely unshakable" confidence in the credibility of the U.S. dollar. Yosano would have some explaining to do about Japan's $686 billion of U.S. debt if more of these suitcase capers come to light.

    "Kennedy Bonds"

    Counterfeit $100 bills are one thing; two guys with undeclared bonds including 249 certificates worth $500 million and 10 "Kennedy bonds" of $1 billion each is quite another.

    The bust could be a boon for Italy. If the securities are found to be genuine, the smugglers could be fined 40 percent of the total value for attempting to take them out of the country. Not a bad payday for a government grappling with a widening budget deficit and rebuilding the town of L'Aquila, which was destroyed by an earthquake in April.

    It would be terrible news for the White House. Other than the U.S., China or Japan, no other nation could theoretically move those amounts. In the absence of clear explanations coming from the Treasury, conspiracy theories are filling the void.

    On his blog, the Market Ticker, Karl Denninger wonders if the Treasury "has been surreptitiously issuing bonds to, say, Japan, as a means of financing deficits that someone didn't want reported over the last, oh, say 10 or 20 years." Adds Denninger: "Let's hope we get those answers, and this isn't one of those 'funny things' that just disappears into the night."

    This is still a story with far more questions than answers. It's odd, though, that it's not garnering more media attention. Interest is likely to grow. The last thing Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke need right now is tens of billions more of U.S. bonds -- or even high-quality fake ones -- suddenly popping up around the globe.

    --------

    (William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

  

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Yeah,, whatever happened to

Yeah,, whatever happened to Don johnson for his attempt to smuggle the $8 billion? I remember seeing it in the news , and then never hearing another word. I once met an American man in Spain, from the midwest ,who claimed to be a money "handler" in Spain. when asking him if what he did was legal he responded this way; "Well, I am not breaking any U.S. laws because I am not in the U.S. And I am not breaking any laws in Spain because I am handling U.S. cash." Upon returning back to the states I made small reports to the FBI and the CIA about the man. The FBI was not even slightly interested because the supposed crime took place in Spain, and the CIA was not interested because the man was a U.S. citizen currently living in the U.S. Seems the thing to do is to do your deeds in Europe,, and then come back and hide in the U.S. So,, anybody know if Don Johnson even got his hand slapped,, or know what happened to the $8 billion of bonds?

Wake up. The dollar, thanks

Wake up. The dollar, thanks to congressional and the Fed's malfeasance along with Peak Oil has caused this disaster. When tech is connected to unbridled greed and managed by a private cartel protected by government, the destruction of the dollar was just a matter of time. It took 90 years for this to happen but now we are here. The real question to ask now is, what can we do about it? Thus far, Obama has been a complete failure on dealing with this, starting with the fact he hired the very people who perpetrated this fubar in the first place. The Fed has to be abolished and replaced with a system managed by us, not the banks who run this country, plain and simple. (Something Obama lacks the courage to do something about it.) We now have a system that's fraudulent, period. No other industry save religion, creates something out of nothing, a fact never taught in economics 101. The article's terrific BTW. No doubt Tom Clancy would get off on this. The thing I would like to know is how many others did a caper like this and how much money/bonds made it into Switzerland. Food for thought I must say.

It makes me wonder if the

It makes me wonder if the rats are leaving a sinking ship.

$134 billion? That's a lot

$134 billion? That's a lot of cake.

"The dollar is, for better

"The dollar is, for better or worse, the core of our world economy and it's best to keep it stable." I've read in places that it was only after Iraq converted from petrodollars to petroeuros that the US seriously considered invading. Guess who else is evil enough to commit such malfeasance? Yep, Iran. The other thing I was thinking about was this: Does anybody else but me remember how the US "lost" Twelve Billion Dollars in Iraq in '03 and '04? Why does this incident surprise us when we have a profligate government that throws billions literally away while denying its own citizens healthcare? We have the equivalent of a "fantasy football" economy grafted onto our real economy. Wall Street and the banksters gambled away real money on fake commodities, while the real economy was slowly siphoned off to WTO and IMF "free trade zones" overseas over 30 years, and now we're surprised that we have no real economy and that Japanese businessmen are carrying around large chunks of what once had value as if it were post-Reich wallpaper? No matter how you spin it, the Milton Friedmann bottom line was bought by Rockefeller, and the rest of us were sold down the river by the Bilderbergers. If you don't have your debt paid off, like I do, consider yourself a slave. Congratulations.

If the Italians get to keep

If the Italians get to keep some of it, I hope they use it to showcase rebuilding with earth-smart design and the latest solar gizmos. I learned the other day that ultra passive house designs were pioneered in Montana in the 70's. Leave it to the Germans to scale it up. You can still buy stuff with dollars. It's just that the U.S. needs to have a giant garage sale. And forget that intellectual-property jazz. We could just get into knocking off the knock-offs of what we used to do. We could become the country of high-quality knock-offs. We've got huge, abandoned buildings in which to do it all. If transparency in the fed somehow passes, maybe the influx of off-shore reporters will supplement that economy based on the usual graft. Maybe D.C. will become so busy naval-gazing, the rest of the country can create its own currency and go its own way. Thanks for the article..

How much healthcare would

How much healthcare would 134 billion buy, even if 31% were siphoned off by Big Insurance and another 31% went to Big Pharma?

Yes I agree, rats leaving a

Yes I agree, rats leaving a sinking ship. International criminals using Swiss banks to keep all the money for themselves. There is a brotherhood of criminals, but no brotherhood of man.