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Unemployment Jumps to 9.7 Percent, as Economy Loses Another 216,000 Jobs

by: Dean Baker  |  The Center for Economic and Policy Research

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New figures show a 10.1 percent unemployment rate for adult men, the highest since Word War II. (Photo: AFP)

    The 10.1 percent unemployment rate for adult men equals the prior post-war high.

    The unemployment rate hit 9.7 percent in August, up from 9.4 percent in July. According to the establishment survey, the economy shed 216,000 jobs in August. In addition, the job loss numbers for June and July were revised up by 49,000. This puts the average rate of job loss over the last three months at 318,000 per month.

    The rise in unemployment in August was disproportionately among men, with the unemployment rate for adult men rising to 10.1 percent. By comparison, the unemployment rate for adult women is 7.6 percent. Before the recession, the unemployment rates for men and women were essentially equal. The 10.1 percent unemployment rate for adult men is equal to its previous post-war high in December of 1982.

    Underemployment also rose in August, with another 298,000 workers involuntarily working part-time. This number now stands at8.9 million, or 5.8 percent of the labor force. This is the same rate as the prior peak in January of 2003. Most of the other data in the household survey is consistent with a labor market that is still weakening. The percentage of unemployment attributable to voluntary quits dropped to 5.5 percent, another record low. The number of discouraged workers is almost exactly double the August 2008 number. And the U-6 measure of labor market slack rose to 16.8 percent, 0.3 percentage points above the 16.5 percent peak hit in June.

    The slower rate of job loss is the result of further moderation in the pace of job loss in the sectors that have been the biggest job losers. Construction lost 65,000 jobs in August, down from 119,000 per month between October and March. Most of this job loss is now coming from the non-residential sector. This is not surprising since residential construction has stabilized in the last couple of months, while a glut in the non-residential market is leading to a sharp contraction in this sector. Stimulus-related jobs will be an offsetting factor.

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    Hours for production workers have been reduced by 8.5 percent over the course of this recession. This is the largest percent reduction of hours during a recession since the Great Depression.

    Manufacturing lost 63,000 jobs in August. Job loss in the sector had averaged 181,000 a month between October and March. Some of this job loss was a fluke of seasonal adjustment, as the July employment levels in the auto industry were almost certainly overstated, leading to a reported loss of 14,800 jobs this month. Employment in the auto sector is likely to be stable or up slightly through the rest of the year.

    Retail trade lost just 9,600 jobs in August, compared to a 69,000 monthly rate of job loss last winter. Auto dealers actually added 5,200 jobs to deal with the Cash for Clunkers program. Employment services shed 10,500 jobs in August, down from an 84,000 monthly rate earlier in the year.

    It is worth noting that the number of jobs imputed into the data for new firms continues to exceed the number for the corresponding months of 2008. The total difference over the last three months has been 53,000. It seems unlikely that new firms would be adding more jobs this year than last year.

    Health care continues to add jobs at a rapid pace, with employment increasing by 27,900 in August. On the other side, state and local governments lost 13,000 jobs, as the negative effect of their huge budget shortfalls outweighed the positive impact of the stimulus.

    One bright spot in the report was a 0.3 percent increase in the average hourly wage. Over the last quarter, hourly wages have risen at a 1.7 percent annual rate. This is somewhat of an uptick from prior months in which nominal wage growth had virtually stopped. The rise in the minimum wage was likely a factor, with the average wage in retail rising by 1.0 percent in August. If wage growth is sustained, then it can help boost consumption going forward.

    This report, like the prior three reports, shows a slowing pace of job loss. It is important to recognize that this rate of job loss, especially when adding in the upward revisions, would be considered disastrous at any other time. The labor market is still deteriorating, albeit less rapidly.

  

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Dean Baker is the Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR's Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.

Comments

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Why does the press keep on

Why does the press keep on reporting false statistics? ACTUAL unemployment -- i.e. people who could be employed but are not and/or have given up looking for work -- is approximately double 9 pc and in the vicinity of 18 pc. The 9 pc figure refers to some useless false category known as the "unemployment RATE". It is this figure which is used to disguise how bad the situation really is. BTW -- 35 MILLION people are now on food stamps (i.e. don't have enough money to cover their food-needs). Way ta go! Bama/Bernake.

The unemployment rate is

The unemployment rate is probably about 20%. In my town it's more like 35 maybe 40%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics can fiddle the numbers anyway they like. Doesn't change the number of jobless on the ground. The jobless issue is the seminal problem facing America and the Obama refuses to address that. We get health care reform/overhaul which is a distraction. What good is health reform without jobs?

In America if you don't have

In America if you don't have a job, you don't have health care. Your taxes instead pay for the war machine so you are protected. Aren't you glad? You don't need a roof over your head, or food to eat, or medical care when you are sick, all you need is to know that the government feels that the best use of your hard earned money is taking care of the wealthy of the world and protecting their interests. If you don't have a job and aren't giving the government money and spending money, then the rich are going to do their best to make sure that when you get sick you give up everything and die. Thats the American way.

@chip: > Way ta go!

@chip: > Way ta go! Bama/Bernake. You really think this mess we're in was all created in just 7 months?

If it is true that 70% of

If it is true that 70% of our economy depends on consumer spending and those consumers are out of work then it is logical to conclude that they will not have enough "disposable" income to buy things they don't need. Whatever income they do manage to accumulate is all allocated to necessary expenses. Therefore, it is not great leap of logic to see that 70% of the economy will tank. It's so obvious. Thus, it would seem to me that in order to get out of this mess we need to create our own jobs and abandon the corporation altogether. It would probably be in our own best interests to stop trying to recapture the "good old days", stop trying to do what we've always done and start doing something different. My observation is that what got us out of the last deep recession in the late 80's and early 90's was the expansion of computer hardware, software and the internet. Perhaps it's time to stop listening to and looking for a rescue from the top (because frankly they don't give a damn) and start innovating from the bottom, where, by the way, all great things begin. Chaos Theory suggests that when things become too rigid, too calcified, too structured and too corrupt, nature has a way of throwing sand in the wheels in order to break this up. It then re-organizes in to something new. This has born out repeatedly. Corporations, by their very nature, are neither creative or innovative but rather rigid and predatory loaded with rules, policies and so forth. Innovation starts with a vision, begins in garages, basements, kitchens and backyards. It grows from there. So, instead of lamenting a time that has passed, instead of hanging on with your fingernails to things and a way of being that no longer is functional, it's best to get innovating and creating; using the time and energy you have to do something different. The path out of darkness is before your feet.