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The Great Recession: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over

by: Robert Borosage  |  The Campaign For America's Future

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Job fair in Orlando, Florida. (Photo: kwalk628 / Flickr)

    The world economy is growing; stock markets are up; talk of recovery, not world depression, fills the business pages. As the leaders of the 20 leading economies gather in Pittsburgh this week, they might well feel the euphoria of someone who has survived a near-death experience. (For an insightful report on Pittsburgh and the G-20, go here)

    Well, hold the champagne. Don't declare victory while the enemy is still advancing. Bush's calamitous folly in Afghanistan-celebrating victory and invading Iraq while the Taliban and al-Qaeda were regrouping in the mountains - should have taught us that much. Let's not go Bush on the economy.

    The question is one of jobs. The reality is companies are still shedding workers; unemployment is still rising. There is no recovery until jobs are being generated. Before the leaders deal with what comes after the recovery, they better secure it. Pittsburgh should be first and foremost a summit on jobs.

    The leaders of the labor union federations from the 20 countries, led by the AFL-CIO, call the leaders to sober up in their "Pittsburgh Declaration." Unemployment is high and rising. It is slated, they report, to almost double over the next 18 months in the industrial countries, and continue rising with rates over 10 percent well into 2011. Over 200 million workers worldwide could be pushed into extreme poverty.

    In the U.S., one in six workers is unemployed or underemployed. Companies are shedding jobs, not hiring. Young workers are hurt the most. Even recent college graduates struggle, with 80 percent of new college graduates - the boomerang generation - moving back in with their parents. Long-term unemployment is at record rates. Unemployment is the worst in a quarter century and rising.

    High unemployment is accompanied by stagnant wages and benefits, and cutbacks in hours. This comes after a lost decade in which most families lost ground. Hard-pressed families have no choice but to tighten belts. Declining consumption means more layoffs. Declining incomes mean falling revenues for governments. State and local governments, having burned through their rainy day funds, are now laying off teachers and police.

    The unprecedented intervention of the Federal Reserve to bail out the banks - interest rates near zero, purchasing over a trillion in mortgage backed securities, and much more - and the Obama recovery plan - providing aid to states and localities, bolstering low-wage workers, and beginning to generate jobs from public works programs - have managed to staunch the hemorrhaging, at least temporarily. Unprecedented in scope, they aren't yet enough to generate a recovery.

    The union leaders get it right. The recovery plans to date "are inadequate in size" and "do not sufficiently focus on employment." They urge the leaders of the G-20 not to exit from their stimulus measures prematurely. Instead they argue for another round of job-focused spending, targeted on putting people to work, and sustained until the recovery is clear.

    This is heresy in this country. Our know-nothing right dismisses the recovery plan as a failure, when it is in fact what is holding up the economy. The business community and conservative economists are railing about debt, calling for cutting back the current spending plans. They fret more about the potential of future inflation than the reality of right-now misery, and the clear and present danger of continued stagnation. The big banks are gamboling back into leveraged speculation and million-dollar bonuses, and fending off efforts to shut down their casino.

    Obama must stand firm against this tide. The president should make it clear to the leaders in Pittsburgh that the measure of a recovery is that people are back at work, and that wages are rising once more. He should challenge them to focus on jobs, pushing for another round of coordinated recovery plans to put people to work. Hold off on the party. There is no recovery without jobs. And no victory while unemployment is rising.

  

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Comments

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The challenge is that the

The challenge is that the economic situation is not being looked at as a situation far different than anything before. It takes less people to make things than before. There is more wealth concentration. Resources are no longer unlimited. The needs are not for technological innovation to solve the problem but social innovation which focuses on how all the people on this world can live harmoniously at a decent standard of living on a healthy, not dying, planet. The need for a paradigm shift - from 'me' to 'us' centered decisions is causal in the current economic malaise. That thinking change has yet to take root.

This could be a

This could be a Mission-Accomplished-style turnaround. A few years from now things may actually be worse on the ground in the US, while the Wall-Street occupiers proclaim the natives have now learned how to 'ride a bike' so they can take care of their own country. Pete Edler, Stockholm.

Unfortunately, the US is

Unfortunately, the US is becoming increasingly inhospitable to the average worker. Due to heavy lobbying by connected industries, all legislation that passes Congress seems to support business, not labor. The current health reform issue is just one example: in the face of declining real incomes, Congress is poised to approve a bill that does not lower prices, but instead guarantees the insurance industry continued profits, via a mandate, either directly from peoples' pockets or by soaking the taxpayer. This is a receipe for fiscal disaster.

It seems that the cash for

It seems that the cash for clunkers did jolt the consumer a bit out of his lethargy, but I don´t believe either that a little bit of shopping will put one fifth of the country back to work and restore one fifth of the value of real estate and get everyone buying homes again, etc. etc. Globalisation has to be restructured so that americans can be put back to work making socks and washing machines. We´ve used up our war economy boost for some time now, as well as speculating on real estate and oil. Bring the soldiers home and find them some other work.

The Government trying to

The Government trying to stimulate job growth..? Gee Gosh Golly.., that would mean less direct handouts to Corporations.., Global Corporations... The same Corporations that now RUN America and Operate what was once OUR Government.... So... It'll never happen. Because... It ain't ''We The People'' anymore... Its WE THE AMERICA CONSUMERS... And Consumers have no right to tell Corporations what to do.... If you don't believe me, just go ask any of the Gigantic Global Corporations that tells Congress what to do.....

The Romans gave people panem

The Romans gave people panem et circenses, bread and games. When they ran out of bread they gave them war. Not much seems to have changed. Pete Edler, Stockholm

In the future we will need

In the future we will need to live less wasteful lives. We have used up many of our resources (oil, lumber, water, top soil and agricultural space). We need to be happy with just one modest home, public transportation, and less extravagant vacations. It is misleading to tell people that the good times of the past (normal business cycle economics) will return. Almighty God did not make us policemenof the universe. We need to end our tragic foreign wars and live sanely and modestly here at home.

The G-20 should be very

The G-20 should be very pleased. Jobless economic recovery! They can now print their own money without limit, not have to produce or pay to produce ANYTHING for ANYONE, and ride around in their private jets forever. PERFECT! ....... FOREVER??