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Is the Bailout Needed? Many Economists Say "No"

by: Kevin G. Hall  |  McClatchy Newspapers

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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange react to turmoil among investment banks on Wall Street. Many of the nation's brightest economic minds are warning that the Wall Street bailouts a dangerous rush job. (Photo: Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

    Washington - A funny thing happened in the drafting of the largest-ever U.S. government intervention in the financial system. Lawmakers of all stripes mostly fell in line, but many of the nation's brightest economic minds are warning that the Wall Street bailout's a dangerous rush job.

    President Bush and his Treasury secretary, former Goldman Sachs chief executive Henry Paulson, have warned of imminent economic collapse and another Great Depression if their rescue plan isn't passed immediately.

    Is that true?

    "It's more hype than real risk," said James K. Galbraith, a University of Texas economist and son of the late economic historian John Kenneth Galbraith. "A nasty recession is possible, but the bailout will not cure that. So it's mainly relevant to the financial industry."

    The Paulson plan will get some bad assets off the balance sheets of troubled Wall Street institutions and commercial banks. That may help thaw the lending freeze.

    But it wouldn't reduce the crush of homes in or near foreclosure, said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. That's a problem that will surely grow worse if the U.S. economy enters recession, leading to greater job losses, which feed a vicious downward spiral of even more foreclosures and defaults on car loans and credit-card debt.

    Americans are spooked by talk that financial Armageddon awaits.

    The global financial system nearly melted down last week when investors pulled out en masse from money market funds and the short-term debt markets that help corporate America fund its day-to-day needs.

    These traditionally have been viewed as safe investments for ordinary Americans, so the flight from them struck fear in the hearts of policymakers.

    Few economists, including Galbraith, are willing to discount completely the chance of a financial collapse, given the turmoil in credit markets and banking.

    "My sense is it will delay a disaster, given that you only have three months left in this administration. But it will not cure the problem in the (financial) industry or prevent the shakeout and downsizing of the industry," Galbraith said.

    Many lawmakers also expressed skepticism.

    Coming out of the White House on Thursday, the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, Alabama's Richard Shelby, held up what he said was a five-page list of economists opposing the rescue plan.

    "This is not me. This is economists at Harvard, Yale, MIT, University of Chicago, our leading universities," an exasperated Shelby told reporters. He called the administration plan "flawed from the beginning."

    Johnson, a former assistant director of research for the International Monetary Fund, said: "I think the main problem is what they have on the table is not truly comprehensive, and I think it's probably not decisive for that reason."

    With the problems in money market funds and the fact that banks have stopped lending to each other except at high rates, the global financial system is as weak as it has been in modern times, he said.

    "It's a very dangerous situation. I would not recommend doing nothing. The world financial markets were in cardiac arrest last week," Johnson said.

    What Congress and the administration failed to do, Johnson said, is develop a mechanism to quickly modify distressed mortgages and prevent even more empty homes from being dumped into real-estate markets in freefall. The plan also doesn't help banks bring in new capital to boost lending; instead many are sitting defensively on their reserves to offset expected loan defaults.

    "I think the rush that happened this week is unfortunate," Johnson said. "I don't think it is enough."

    Another doubter of the Great Depression theme is Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor, who thinks the intervention may prevent or delay the necessary failure of weak financial institutions.

    "It is time to take stock of the crisis and recognize that the financial industry is undergoing fundamental shifts, and is not simply the victim of speculative panic against housing loans," he wrote in a syndicated column. "Certainly better regulation is part of the answer over the longer run, but it is no panacea. Today's financial firm equity and bond holders must bear the main cost, or there is little hope they will behave more responsibly in the future."

    Some analysts think the most important steps to avoid another depression may have already occurred without the $700 billion bailout.

    "Last week we came real close to a financial economic meltdown because of the run on money market funds, resulting from the bankruptcy of (investment bank) Lehman Brothers, and I think insuring the money-market funds was enough," said Ed Yardeni, a veteran Wall Street analyst. Last week the Treasury announced a $50 billion insurance plan for money market funds, which restored confidence in them. "It wasn't necessary to move to Plan B."

    Doubting the financial Armageddon scenario, Yardeni said another measure that could have the same effect as the $700 billion rescue plan is simply to change accounting rules for bad assets - mostly bonds with mortgages as their collateral.

    Right now, banks and others with this toxic debt by law must write down losses every quarter. They are forced to put a present-day value on these assets. Yardeni thinks suspending this rule could do the job without taxpayer money.

    "There are quite a few of us who think that could have stabilized the situation quite effectively," he said, adding, "I think it (the bailout) was rushed, and certainly we didn't give other reasonable, cheaper alternatives a chance. But at this point it is what it is, and we all have to pray that it works."

  

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Comments

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Throwing money at a

Throwing money at a problem--literally. The most egregious example in the history of the world. They don't have a plan. They don't know how (or if) it would work. They haven't looked at the side affects. They don't know if it actually would "save the financial system" or if doing that would "save the economy." Nothing. Nothing. Nothing at all. Yet, they say, it is essential to do something--anything--right now. And throwing this vast amount of money, they say, will solve the (vaguely understood) problem in some magical (completely not understood) manner. Who's crazy here?

Whatever transpires,

Whatever transpires, bail-out or not as a reality, the voting public is learning a lot from the goings-on back in Washington. Even with the gates of hell yawning before them where the country's financial melt-down is concerned, Republicans debating the details of this federal rescue mission steadfastly continue to manifest the greed that got us to this point in the first place. They insist on including in a bail-out plan a provision for further tax cuts, basically capital gains. One might suspect the hand of John McCain, who parachuted into the battle zone at the 11th hour to knock the wheels off a bi-partisan compromise proposal that was nearing the agreement point. Meanwhile, I'm impressed by the calm and professional demeanor of Senator Reid in spelling out details of the negotiations over TV for the public.

Where are the WMD's??

Where are the WMD's??

The worst entity to bail out

The worst entity to bail out the banks is the US government known as the "lack of oversight" club. I am not surprised the Democrats are falling for this shakedown of the American taxpayer. They should join their conservative friends in the house to back out of this deal. This is a market problem and it will be fixed by market solutions. The bailout will only prolong the problem and will further devalue the dollar and increase inflation. Market solutions would strengthen the dollar and decrease inflation. Yeah, it would be a big hit for about half the country and they need to feel the pinch instead of burdening their children and their children's children.

If mortgages are the root

If mortgages are the root cause - why not simply put a floor on the market by using the bailout funds to simply offer to buy any mortgage for 50% of its face value? Last count the default rate was about 1m homes at 250k median home value times 50% its gonna cost a lot less than $700B. No money goes directly to the financial wizards who created the mess in the first place. I suspect that once there is a value placed on the collateral for the mortgage related securities the credit markets will thaw out...and probably the government would not end up owning many properties at all.

What Congress SHOULD do is

What Congress SHOULD do is bring together - not themselves - but instead, the greatest economic minds of our day. Let THEM hash out a plan. Would that this wasn't more about politics than about a solution.

The Democrats are merely

The Democrats are merely trying to respond to the needs of their biggest financial supporters and their local economic interests (their leadership is a pathetic joke,Reid,Pelosi,Dodd,Frank and etc.) ie the large money-center banks in the "blue" electoral states and too bad for the dummies in the middle of the country who are too stupid to understand what is really happening. The cable news channels are currently reporting that the public opinion of us "dummy's" are 90-95% against this "bailout" of Wall Street ... no sales this time you spin doctors!

The most suspicious thing

The most suspicious thing about this is the 'NEED to hurry up' and that is why this smells of robbery in the first degree. And still, I don't see how bailing out businesses that have proven their own unworthiness to remain in business makes ANY sense whatsoever. Regulations, penalties, oversight, CEO compensation caps, and doing hard time for what is mostly grand larceny from that good old white boy club of corporate america to bring these greedy and unscrupulous evil people into line with accountability. And how else than the most serious threat to the security of the U.S.A. could this be? Planes driven into buildings are easy to see and investigate if it was investigated with the most intense scrutiny but with the executive management of the major money changers in corporations you just find out way too late of the cash out of irresponsible heads of businesses and for some strange reason it is accepted and no inquiry is undertaken. So no wonder so many criminally minded people try their damndest to get into positions to 'cash out'. So, what part of milton friedman's wonderful world of economic fantasy land helps to maintain a healthy economy?

In the first place there

In the first place there needs to be a separation again of the investment companies from the commercial banks as was done in 1933 and undone starting with Reagan. If anything needs to be "saved" in terms of liquidity it is the commercial banks. Having a Bear Stearns tank or a Merrill Lynch is not going to impact the ability of businesses to borrow or of traditional lenders to provide funds for mortgages. It is hardly impartial advice that is being given by the former head of Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest abusers of the law going back to the days of the junk bond bust in the mid-1980's.

Just like republicans to

Just like republicans to blame the democrats for this administrations failed policies. I wonder what they all are drinking?

Bailing out the bankers is

Bailing out the bankers is really "pushing on string". After all, there have already been several bailouts this year, and each has settled things down, but only for maybe a week or so. Why should we expect that any positive effects of this bailout would last? Wouldn't just be another attempt to paper over a more fundamental problem? What's really happening here is that people don't have the money to keep up with their debts. That's the immediate problem that needs to be addressed. So how about we take that $700 billion and apply it to the base of the pyramid: give every woman in the U.S. $250 a month for the next two years. There's a Keynesian solution! Why women? Because they'd spend it on their families, while men would spend it on beer and SUVs.

While all of this "crisis"

While all of this "crisis" was underway, Congress passed a defense bill for 2009. BY A 392-39 VOTE the Housesent to the Senate $612.5 billion in spending for national defense programs in 2009, including $68.6 billion for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. An earlier version of the bill eventually passed the Senate, 88-8. A pox on both houses (and all "accomplice" parties)

Its all about the 'they'.

Its all about the 'they'. What are we going to do? When do we stop the wheel and say it's time for me to get off, collectively. Why do we continue to let these people, who ever they are, decide our fate? Somehow we need to take responsibility for the US in the USA and do something. What, I don't know but something, for sure. The 'they' don't know what they heck they are doing but 'they' are in control. How do we stop that? How do we take more responsibility for what is going on? What do the 'we' do?

Do you think Milton Friedman

Do you think Milton Friedman is turning over in his grave?

There are many of us who can

There are many of us who can remember back to the 1980 election and the "October Surprise" that was supposed to have won that election for Reagan. We have been fearful of "October Surprises" since then. Perhaps the surprise this time is designed to lose the election. By that I mean hand $700 billion over to Wall Street (remember Secretary Paulson received almost $700 million from Goldman Sachs) and then leave things to the Democrats to clean up? A Democratic President and Congress would have to face fixing up an unprecedented financial mess at home, finding an answer to the war in Iraq where there is no good alternative, divert military resources we don't have to Afghanistan, and execute a 180 degree turn on global warming/climate change. Any party with those four horsemen to defeat would come out looking bad.

The way I see it, it is the

The way I see it, it is the Federal Governments fault and it was TOTALLY avoidable. Think about this. The banks gave out adjustable mortgages. These are based on the Feds interest rates. The Feds kept raising the rates up. They didn't have to but they did. If they lowered the rates, most people wouldn't have been hammered by the high interest rates and all would be well. It is THEIR fault, not the banks. Has anyone talked about this yet?

This is rich reward to the

This is rich reward to the same banks that have been scamming home owners with predatory mortgages for the past 7 years!! What a joke - but who can laugh? This is the Grandest Extortion ever played upon the Public. I'm more sad that people beleive it is necessary, and that the politicians are sticking to their scripts instead of speaking out.

Please, Lets get a couple of

Please, Lets get a couple of things straight. Besides there being a rule that whomever is the presidential candidate nominated by their party that they have to let the public know who they are considering for their cabinet, judges, all the people who assist them in their decision making process. Another one would be; There should be no vote on any plan/or/ plans until AFTER the election. If there is then a bail out, insist that for every $1 that goes to the bail out, that $2 get spent on education. That would send a message at least that our country is willing to educate the public so that they can figure out their own assets and bad debts. One trillion. If it were seconds, it would add up to over 30,000 years!! When one sees a commercial or receives mail about a financial offering the fine print tells them that they should see more information prior to investing. That is the law which requires them to do that. Here we are, all getting railroaded into this with not even a hint of what would be normally required!! I told my congress persons that in no way do I want them to even vote on the measure prior to the election and if they do, I will NEVER vote for them again and I will make it my life's work to let everyone I know not to either. I hope they got the message.

There are few politicians or

There are few politicians or pundits acknowledging that the economy is actually composed of people who produce things. Despite all the talk about the importance of credit markets, most of the companies in line for a "bail out" are in the business of manipulating money and thus contribute little value to the real economy. In fact they reduce the value of money since it no longer represents valuable production.

Let's declare these guys as

Let's declare these guys as economic terrorists, freeze their assets and apply the money toward the bailout. If they squeel: offer them a hari-kari sword as an alternative. It's a free-market, their choice.

Remember supply-side

Remember supply-side economics? The idea is that you give money to business, and they will then produce good and, in so doing, put people back to work, and the economy will grow. It doesn't work, because opening a factory may employ 100 workers but making it pay requires 10,000 customers; business serves existing customers, it doesn't create future ones. Instead, they put the money into the paper economy. The bankers' bailout is supply-side economics, one step removed: give money to bankers and they will lend it to businesses, which will then hire workers and produce goods and the economy will grow. This is even less likely to trickle down to the real economy; it will all go into the black hole of the paper economy. Both candidates last night endorsed this. When the bailout goes into effect, there will be a temporary statistical upturn but the real economy will be unaffected.

So is new package called "No

So is new package called "No Banker Left Behind" ?

Bailout shmailout! Let's

Bailout shmailout! Let's grant these heavy money folks imaginative cunning in having sleep-walked the American people to this point, that is to say, to the brink of another fantasy precipice that will dissolve into more killing, more wars, (see McCanem on Iraq and Obomba on Afghanistan). This truly is a time for mature minds to turn to Thoreau and to cultivating their own garden. Pete Edler, Stockholm

There's a lot I don't

There's a lot I don't understand about this, and it seems I have a lot of company. But I think I do understand this: If we do this bailout we are creating a huge national debt that our children and grandchildren will have to service. We are selling the country. I am a pay-as-you-go guy. If you can't afford it, don't do it. If the economy collapses (whatever that means) and I have to eat beans, I can do that. One way out of debt denominated in dollars is to have massive inflation. I fear that.

Everyone has a right to be

Everyone has a right to be angry about this event, however, it was collective negligence on the part of all Americans that got us into this mess in the first place. If you woke up this morning and decided that you were going to spend the day invoking your rights as a victim, so be it, see where that gets you. The "bailout", will work over a period of time, 2 to 4 years, and the American taxpayer should expect a marginal profit or loss, the key word is "marginal". I prefer refer to it as a "restructuring" of the MBS and counter party market. Look at the $700B as a good faith deposit by Americans, for a fund that will create "stability", "transparency" and "equilibrium" to a huge 57 trillion dollar global market that has none of the above and has been operating in a state of uncertainty filled with ambiguous counter-party obligations. Once the above criteria begins to evolve, private and sovereign funds "will" create sufficient liquidity to re-price these assets and the underlying collateral. Having said that, it is true that there were many unscrupulous players that caused these events to occur and they should be treated harshly to the fullest extent of the law. We as Americans need to lead and make the first commitment to this effort in order to demonstrate our good faith to the world. To do otherwise would be a serious mistake. I am a supporter of Obama, just to let you know my political leanings. Having said that, I know who Hank Paulsen is and although I saw that he had a difficult time conveying this abstract concept to the public, I have a great deal of faith in his ability to manage this crisis. AND A CRISIS IT IS...! IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING ELSE I'VE SAID, YOU CAN BELIEVE THAT..... My best regards to all, Econolicious

Welcome to the "October

Welcome to the "October Surprise" Only it's in September. The idea here seems to be to make an outrageous request basically as a teail balloon. If it goes through, great, we can steal a lot more money before the end of the Bush Regime. And get the Democrats to support it by lying about the immediate and enormous effects it will have on the economy. After all, they expect to win in Novemver and don't want to have an unmanageable situation on their hands. Then have the Republicans balk, insist on "Free market" principles while mouthing some platitudes about helping the homeowner and taxpayer, and run out the clock. Then engineer a massive stock market slide on Monday and Tuesday of next week, then have McSame come back to Washington to "save" the situation by convincing the Republicans to vote for the bailout, whuch then causes the stock market to surge in October, thus changing enough minds to get him elected. Voila!!

It is interesting that the

It is interesting that the discussion of the failures in the US financial community have not been tied to the disaster of the Iraq war and it's drain on our economy. The concept that we could fight this incompetent war and have our cake and eat it to has been an enduring fallacy in this administration and in the financial activities of the country. It only take a short review of the collapse of colonial enterprises from the Roman empire to the present to see the economic drain that brought these empires to their knees. Let's hear from someone who makes the connection. There is only so much money unless you crank up printing press.

Let the sky fall: NO BAILOUT!

Let the sky fall: NO BAILOUT!

The downside of the bailout

The downside of the bailout is enormous. Markets will not adjust, keeping housing prices too high. The dollar will be further weakened by the huge increase in the deficit. This will keep inflation high and consumption low which will further stall the markets. Wall street will have no reason to change it's ways because as soon as they get into trouble, they will expect a government socialist bailout. I propose the government scale back the huge sums of money to bailout wall st to about 150 billion. and let the banks collapse, then if private firms do not buy the assets in 2 or 3 days, then we then the taxpayer can buy these assets at pennies on the dollar, which will give us a better chance to recoup our assets. Nothing should be bailed out. If we buy, then we own.

So,the bankers have stolen

So,the bankers have stolen so much money that they have none left to lend out ? The solution is for US to borrow money from China ?at interest to give to the thieves so they will lend it to US at interest? WOW! what's not to like about that!

What I do not understand, as

What I do not understand, as someone remarked beforehand; what is this war costing in real money, and what about the black budgets that the CIA, NSA, and our mercenary armies are getting. There is no transparency; however there is one thing that we can see; some of the principal actors are directly profiting from this costly war. The gratest ,is the cost in human lives, we may be shown the number of Anerican and Colation forcesthat have died; one thing that I remenber from stistics is that the most important piece of information is kept from us; what our we calculating, based on individuals that died in tearter, nost likly, not to mention the young men and wome, who whent into service with the idea that we were here too protect the Nation, not to be used as pawn's to serve the intress of the major cprpirations. I say no bail out, the individuals do not have a choice when sent to war, or should I say in harms way. Let them know the meaning of fear, just as those they send abroad face every day. I say Mr. President, do not construct these walls; to protect them when times are bad. Let them feel fear, and uncertainty, as the are so willing to do when they send our best and brightest off to war. Oh, I forgot they are volunteers; so what ever happens to them we say they knew what they were getting into. I say they knew what they were doing when they started inventing these complex instrumentalist, If they die; remember they were volunteers.

There is no alternative now

There is no alternative now but to liquidate the oligarchy . . . "literally". Do you know what liquid is?

Anonymous, the Fed isn't to

Anonymous, the Fed isn't to blame because the rising of the rates was done to offset fears of inflation. It's not as simple as them just lowering the rates again, because everything is tied together. The real issue is the way that credit-default swaps were created and traded as if they were money. They weren't, they were insurance policies, and insurance policies occasionally have to be paid out. When you have lenders who are happy to press risky high-money loans on unqualified people because they know they won't be the ones left carrying the bad paper in the end, the likelihood that the "insurance policy" of a credit-default swap is going to have to be paid out goes up. Once the defaults started the swaps became liabilities rather than assets, and now everyone gets screwed. We've been writing about the economy on the CA NOW blog since April, our latest is on Gender, Race and the Bailout: http://www.canow.org/canoworg/2008/09/gender-race-and.html

Marriner S. Eccles, was the

Marriner S. Eccles, was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1934 1948 In his 1951 memoir Beckoning Frontiers, Eccles detailed what he believed caused the Great Depression. Our current situation is eerily similar. Eccles wrote: "As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth β€” not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced β€” to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nations economic machinery. Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

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