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GOP Strategists Whisper Fears Of Greater Losses in November

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by: Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray, The Washington Post

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is being targeted for defeat by the Democrats this November. (Photo: Getty Images)

    With the party already struggling to generate enthusiasm for its brand, Republican strategists fear that an outpouring of public anger generated by Congress's struggle to pass a rescue package for the financial industry may contribute to a disaster at the polls for the GOP in November.

    "The crisis has affected the entire ticket," said Jan van Lohuizen, a Republican consultant who handled the polling for President Bush's reelection campaign. "The worse the state's economy, the greater the impact."

    Republicans are trying to defend at least 18 House seats in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, economic trouble spots that double as election battlegrounds. Rising unemployment, the meltdown in the housing market, and a credit crunch besieging consumers and manufacturers alike were factors in Sen. John McCain's decision Thursday to pull campaign resources out of Michigan. The McCain campaign's exit from the state leaves a pair of vulnerable Republicans, Reps. Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg, with a weakened party infrastructure heading into Nov. 4. Attempting to sound optimistic, Knollenberg, who opposed the bailout bill on Monday but supported a revised version yesterday, said simply, "I am going to fight harder."

    In the Senate, where Democrats have been on offense all year as they try to attain a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority, Republican incumbents are suddenly teetering in North Carolina, Kentucky and Georgia because of the economic crisis, according to several GOP strategists closely tracking the contests.

    The pessimism in the GOP ranks reflects a striking shift in momentum in the four weeks since the Republican National Convention, when Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin made her national debut and rallied conservatives, helping to fuel the perception that longer-shot Democratic targets were drifting out of reach.

    "If you turn the clock back two or two and half weeks, you could make a plausible argument that if a couple of things go our way we will lose three to four Senate races," said one Republican strategist. "Now we will lose six to eight." Polling in most Senate races over the past 14 days has shown a five-point decline for the Republican candidate, the strategist said.

    The picture in the House is similar. The generic ballot test -- a traditional measure of broad voter attitudes -- has also moved decisively in Democrats' direction in recent days. The latest NBC-Wall Street Journal and Associated Press polls showed voters favoring a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a generic Republican by 13 points, while a recent Time magazine poll gave Democrats a 46 percent to 36 percent edge.

    GOP operatives said the party's declining fortunes are rooted in a series of events over the past two weeks, including McCain's decision to suspend his campaign in order to help broker a deal on the rescue plan and Republican opposition that doomed the bill in a House vote on Monday. Those incidents helped reinforce voter impressions that Washington is broken and that Republicans bear the brunt of the blame, the party insiders said.

    In the most recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, more than half of all voters said they were "very concerned" that the failure of the first bailout vote would cause a "severe economic decline." By a ratio of 2 to 1, they blamed the legislations' defeat on Republicans.

    Neil Newhouse, a partner in the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, echoed van Lohuizen's sentiment. "The bailout crisis has had a corrosive effect on the national political environment, and that impacts not just John McCain, but GOP candidates up and down the ticket," he said.

    The proximity to the election added to the chaos on Capitol Hill this week as lawmakers sought to pass a $700 billion package to stabilize banks and financial markets. In the House, most vulnerable Republicans opposed the version that failed on Monday, as well as the revamped legislation that passed easily yesterday. But in the Senate, which voted Wednesday, just two vulnerable Republicans, Sens. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.), opposed the bill (along with the only Democrat who is seen as endangered, Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu).

    Seven Republicans who are being targeted for defeat by Democrats backed the plan: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), and Sens. Saxby Chambliss (Ga.), Ted Stevens (Alaska); Norm Coleman (Minn.); Gordon Smith (Ore.), Susan Collins (Maine) and John E. Sununu (N.H.).

    Some states that have been hit particularly hard economically saw fractures within their delegations. In Michigan, Knollenberg switched his vote from no on Monday to yes on Friday, while Walberg voted no both times. Asked whether he changed his mind out of concern for his reelection, Knollenberg shrugged and responded, "This is politics." But he added that supporting the bailout "is really what's best for the community."

    In North Carolina, the package was opposed by both vulnerable GOP incumbents, Dole and Rep. Robin Hayes. Dole's Democratic challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan, also announced her opposition. Rep. Sue Myrick, one of the few Republicans in the state whose seat is considered relatively secure, was one of 25 GOP members who switched from no to yes. "I may lose this race over this vote," Myrick said. "But that's okay, because I believe in my heart that I'm doing the right thing."

    Phil Singer, a former aide to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign who is currently advising several Democratic Senate candidates, said the current financial crisis provided a new opportunity to remind voters that President Bush remains the leader of the Republican Party. "The 'GOP candidate equals George Bush' argument was growing stale in the absence of any fresh proof points," said Singer.

    Rep. Eric Cantor (Va.), the GOP's chief deputy whip, urged Republicans to go home and talk about kitchen-table issues such as the price of gas. "That's what this election is going to be about," he said, "and people are going to ask, 'Whose vision do we ascribe to?' " But it could take time to change the subject, Cantor acknowledged, depending on how quickly the crisis shows signs of easing.

    Compounding Republican problems is a continued fundraising deficit that has left the party largely powerless to defend its congressional candidates against a televised Democratic onslaught. At the start of September -- the last time financial figures were available -- the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee held a $40 million cash-on-hand edge over its GOP counterpart and was advertising in 41 House districts, compared with just two districts in which the National Republican Campaign Committee was on the air.

    The gap was less daunting on the Senate side, where the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee held a $7 million cash edge over the National Republican Senatorial Committee at the start of September. However, the DSCC spent $13.6 million in August -- largely on television ads -- while the NRSC dropped just $3.6 million.

    That spending deficit and the economic reverberations are being felt most strongly in North Carolina, where Hagan appears to have moved into a lead over Dole. The DSCC has spent more than $3.5 million on ads painting Dole as out of touch with average North Carolina voters, and even Republicans acknowledge that the attacks have taken their toll. Independent polling puts Hagan's lead at three to eight points.

    In Oregon, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) has taken to the television airwaves to attack Sen. Gordon Smith (R) for his vote in favor of the rescue plan. "In this economy, who is really on your side?" asks the narrator in Merkley's ad, saying that Smith supported a "trillion-dollar blank check for Wall Street." Polling in that race shows a virtual dead heat.

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Comments

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I want seized the assets of

I want seized the assets of the CEOs and the Boards of Directors that "Managed" and "Directed" us into this mess in the first place. First they pay for the bailout, down to one car and one house. THEN come to me to bail out the rest.

Who are you voting

Who are you voting for? This is not a question I am asking to hear the person's name, but to hear the nationality! Each time there is talk about foreign policy, I wonder if this election is for voting the President of the USA or the President of Iraq. Foreign policy is a part of a President's job, but by no means should that be a ticket to run the country. This is like saying "You should marry me because I will be real nice to your neighbors"!

If I were Palin's son, I'd

If I were Palin's son, I'd watch my back for "friendly" fire in Iraq. Because, if something did happen to him, a huge sympathy vote would win the election for McCain. Cynical? You bet.

"… The argument that the

"… The argument that the two parties should represent opposed ideals and policies, one, perhaps, of the Right and the other of the Left, is a foolish idea acceptable only to the doctrinaire and academic thinkers. Instead, the two parties should be almost identical, so that the American people can “throw the rascals out” at any election without leading to any profound or extreme shifts in policy. …" -- Carroll Quigley in his book Tragedy and Hope

clearly, there's only one

clearly, there's only one party, and it's controlled by TheCorporates (this is called Fascism) ... Obama voted FOR the WallStBailout, and is exceedingly naive (you didn't see Hillary pull her Name from the ballot as he did this past Spring, did you?) a wise politician -- for that matter a wise INDIVIDUAL -- keeps as many options as possible open at all Times) Nader has NEVER lied to us, and he doesn't appear to be familiar with Doublespeak ... before the Bailout vote, i was gonna hold my nose and vote for Barack (his economic 'advisers' suck, too, tho IMO Biden's a good man) ... but since Obama didn't vote for ME re: TheBailout, i'll vote for Ralph with a light and clear conscience, let the rest hit the fan however it needs to as a result

The Republicans have to win;

The Republicans have to win; it's WIN OR DIE. If they lose, the GOP knows more than a few of their rank and file will be facing indictments, prosecution and "Club Fed" incarceration.

The dems, whowhen I last

The dems, whowhen I last looked are the majority in congress, have a brain trust with skills to draft proper bills. They could have tossed out Bush's proposal and brought forward an aid package focused on the people. Certainly democrats knew for months things were teetering on the edge and that gave time for contingency measures to be drawn up. By bringing a people's bill instead of the rich and well-connected bailout trash that was signed, they could have dramatically shown what they stood for and put all republicans in a corner and then dared Bush to veto it. Instead, willingly democrats are still led around and continue to expose themselves as barely concerned with regular people.

It backfires that McCain has

It backfires that McCain has absloutely no clue about economics. He doesn't even know how many houses he (or better his wife) owns. Republicans are the war and (fabricated) external threat party. The Democrats are the domestic party and the domestic economic threat is very real. It comes down to for what the remaining, shrinking money will be used. For wars and foreign adventures or on domestic issues. Swing voters and independents clearly favour domestic issues! Too bad that the Republicans couldn't hold back the economic mess until after the elections. It was not the October surprise they had hoped for. Cornered animals are good for anything, lets see what the next 4 weeks will bring.

Don't blame Bush for doing

Don't blame Bush for doing the Republican party in. Blame that Genius, Karl Rove. He's such a Genius! First, he does not really get Bush elected in 2000, the SCOTUS hands it to Bush. Next up, he does not really get Bush elected in 2004, a little voting machine slight of hand provides the necessary margin. But best of all, Mr. GENIUS, provides the necessary GOP game plan for a Dem landslide in 2006, and the gift that just keeps giving, is going to really provide an incredible Dem landslide in 2008. GOPers near and far, please, please keep following the balding little fat guy, remember he's a GENIUS, keep following him right off the edge of the cliff.

The Repubs stood up against

The Repubs stood up against the bill, baloney. They were trying to play a game of chicken with the normally timid democrats. They said, in private that they had the votes to pass the bill. Blunt and Boehner both said to the press that the dems could pass this any time they wanted they had the votes. The Repubs renigged on their pledge daring the Dems to either come across with the extra votes (making it a Democratic bill) or let it fail. To their surprise, the Dems found some backbone and let the compromise bill fail. for the first time in a long time the Dems stood their ground. What a shock for Boehner. The second vote they did the count first and then let some people vote against it to be popular at home. The Repubs did not show courage last week, they played chicken with the economic future of the country.

Republicrats! There's no

Republicrats! There's no real difference between the two parties. If anything, voters will reward the Republican House members who stood up to the bailout scam. Pelosi, Reid, Obama joined with Bush, McCain and Paulson to steal from all of us. The two party system is a farce. Vote Nader or McKinney. Obama is not a progressive. The Dem who should have been the presidential nominee is Kucinich, not Obama.

The damage done to the USA

The damage done to the USA since Reagan is irreversible. Reagan and the Bushes have presided over a catastrophe that most Americans don't recognize yet. You have to step outside the bubble that most Americans live in to see what has happened to us, and what we have done to ourselves. No politician produced by this system can accomplish anything for the good of the vast majority of the citizens of the U.S. The "Bailout-Blackmail Bill" is stark proof of that. Sorry, it's all over audience.

Incompetence. Impeachment.

Incompetence. Impeachment. See how well those two words go together? I only hope they wait to file charges until Bush and Dick are out of office and unlikely to grant each other a pardon.

I am disabled & live in

I am disabled & live in Colorado House District 4 where by god this year I am paying the postal fees and DEMANDING my mail in ballot be sent return receipt requested & I hope the moderators and truthout will pass this on to such entities as moveon.org who will take out media ads pointing out that Marilyn Musgrave has mysteriously managed twice now to come from 35% behind in 2000 and 70% down in 2004 to "win" by 1% when the margin of error was 3&1/2% WITHOUT A CONSTITUTIONALLY MANDATORY RECOUNT CONDUCTED EITHER TIME!

I'd like to give credit

I'd like to give credit where it's due. I completely agree with radline9 (actually, I almost always agree with what s/he posts here). Bush is at the heart of the problems of the GOP. But there is another major factor at play here. If Howard Dean hadn't had a brainstorm regarding a 50-State Strategy, and if Obama hadn't signed on to that plan despite its risks, democrats would not be reaping the benefits of Bush's abject failure. If we weren't working so hard in every state, we wouldn't be in a position to bring in all these voters who are so pissed at Bush that they could scream. But since we ARE present in each of these states, we are prepared to lead an alternative narrative. Howard Dean and Barack Obama are the architects of our revolution, and they will likely succeed in finally putting the last nail in the coffin of Karl Rove's "permanent republican majority." Rove's overstepping might actually result in a permanent republican minority, but only because our leaders had the foresight to be in a position to take advantage of the hubris of Bush, Rove, Cheney and McCain.

What will be most

What will be most interesting is how the Repugnicans will now blame the Dems for all the economic woes, since they have had "control" of the Senate for gee, almost 2 years now but no way to get a close vore past a veto by The Decider. --- Well, The Decider sure has made some truly awful decisions over the past 8 years. HOW did we ever elect such a turkey to such an important job? And then re-elect the same turkey??? --- What I fund Truly Scary is that Pain seems like a much more dangerous version of Bush. (At least Bush had Cheney. Who will Pain have? McCain's Lobbyists and Advisors? TRULY SCARY that this is even a possibility, methinks.

The Democrats are no heroes,

The Democrats are no heroes, voting as they did to approve the wholesale give-away. As has been said before, what we have in this country is ONE political party - the Business Party, the Party of Money - and it has two right-wing factions: Republicans and Democrats. What we do not have is a party that represents the majority of this country's population. I am sickened by this country, its support for thieves and criminals, both here and abroad. It is far past time for a popular revolt against the oligarchy. I, for one, have ceased paying federal taxes, and I would hope that my fellow citizens and fellow patriots will follow suit. Money is all these criminals understand. No taxation without real representation.

Ha! Bush finally did the

Ha! Bush finally did the Republican party in! (I hope!) If Obama wins, I'm going to party until January 20th, then I'll get down to work for the president.