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The Recovery: Can You Feel It Yet?

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

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(Photo: Old Sarge / flickr)

    We all know that the economy is now recovering. The stock market is up by more than 50 percent from its March lows and Alan Greenspan, the former Maestro, is now projecting a 3.0 percent growth rate for the third quarter. Banks are again reporting strong profits and the Wall Street bankers are getting bonuses that are approaching their housing bubble peaks.

    Everything is bright and sunny again, unless you have to work for a living. The news here is less good. The economy lost more than 260,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate reaching 9.8 percent. The 10.3 percent unemployment rate for adult men is the highest rate since the Great Depression. And real wages are headed downward.

    Even worse, the unemployment rate is virtually certain to keep rising in the months ahead. While job loss in manufacturing has slowed, construction is continuing to shed jobs at a rapid rate. Most of this job loss now stems from the collapse of the bubble in nonresidential construction. The retail sector is laying off workers at a rapid pace as consumers cut back spending in response to the loss of $8 trillion in housing bubble wealth. And state and local governments are now laying off teachers, firefighters, and other workers in response to the huge deficits created by the recession and the collapse of the loss of property tax revenue due to the collapse of the housing bubble.

    While tens of millions of workers are facing unemployment or underemployment, and millions are facing the prospect of losing their homes, the instinct among the Washington punditry is to just sit back and wait. After all, now that the banks are all right they don't see any urgency for government action.

    There are certainly many people who believe that the only role of government is to support bankers and other wealthy people who could not get by on their own. But for those who think that the government has the responsibility to prevent large segments of the population from being mired in unemployment, homelessness and poverty, there is much that can be done.

    First, we should be clear, the stimulus passed last February did work. Go ask your governor or mayor how many more people they would be laying off right now had it not been for the federal aid provided by the stimulus. Also, millions of unemployed workers are seeing bigger unemployment insurance benefits (including health care coverage) because of the stimulus. Extended and increased benefits not only help these workers, but when they spend this money, it helps boost the economy. The same is true of the tax cuts directed toward ordinary workers that were included in the stimulus package.

    The stimulus package has likely kept the economy from losing one million more jobs by this point. If the prospect of 10 percent unemployment sounds bad, let's start talking about 11 to 12 percent unemployment. That is where we would be going if Congress did not pass the stimulus package.

    But the key point is that we desperately need more. It is not fair that tens of millions of people should suffer because Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke were too dumb to see an $8 trillion housing bubble.

    There are many ways that the federal government can boost demand, with more aid to state and local government probably topping the list in terms of priorities. However, to get large numbers of workers back to work quickly, the best route is a tax credit to shorten normal working time.

    The basic logic is very simple; the tax credit effectively pays employers to hire more workers, with each worker putting in fewer hours. If we used the tax credit to pay employers of 100 million workers to work 5 percent fewer hours, while keeping their take-home pay unchanged, then in principle they should want to hire 5 percent more workers, or five million workers. This can be done quickly and will involve more employment in the private sector, not make work public sector jobs. That should make the conservatives happy.

    There undoubtedly will be some gaming of such a tax credit, but there is some waste/fraud in everything we do. The prospect of having 15 million people unemployed for much of the next two years is unacceptable. Having used trillions of dollars in loans to bail out the richest people in the country, it is time that the government take some bold steps to help everyone else.

  

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Dean Baker is the Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR's Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.

Comments

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Wall Street likes high

Wall Street likes high unemployment. High unemployment depresses wages and increases profits. The corporate state is run from Wall Street. Washington DC is a Potemkin village--an empty but pretty relic of the dead republic--and to expect politicians to act in the public good is just preposterous. They are all on Wall Street's payroll. The fact that respectable economists now talk glibly about a 'jobless recovery' should clue people in. One would think that oxymoron would give people pause, but in truth nobody in power cares about the people who are hurting in this country.

I'm still unemployed since

I'm still unemployed since January. Thought I might actually have something to interview for this month, but it's not looking good. I worked for 34 years straight and was suddenly out of work on January 9th.

Tax credits for energy- and

Tax credits for energy- and water-saving improvements could be particularly useful. If expenditures on non-human resources are reduced, it could mean lasting improvements in resources for humans. It might be a better way to keep resources dispersed rather than having them pass go to yield tribute to the lords of the centralized, consolidated manors. If the federal government does not do this, it will become less relevant. Lacking federal reserve notes in the hinterlands, people will trade off the federal books. What else are they going to do, not grow their own food, not chop their own wood, not carry their own water: starve, freeze, and de-hydrate?

Enjoyed Baker's implication

Enjoyed Baker's implication that bankers don't really work for a living. Still think it'd be a good idea to break up the 19 largest banks & holding companies (like Amex) so they won't be too big to fail anymore. Also put US compensation in line with EU rules, ie., no huge bonuses etc., as far as I'm concerned, if the "talent" wants to leave, it can, we don't need the kind of talent that believes in raking in as many fees as possible regardless of the credit worthiness of the borrower and in shadown banking practices. Repass Glass-Steagall, impeach both Gramms

This is a horror story,

This is a horror story, straight out of the Depression. Call it what it is - many things could be done to get people back to work, take Kucinich's idea of a Department of Peace, put millions to work like Roosevelt did with the WPA, (Hiring freeze at the DOD, withdrawal from conflicts and base closure. Done.)

I noticed that all the jobs

I noticed that all the jobs "saved" by the "Stimulus Package" were all gov't jobs. Go figure. But, as for the rest of us, as far as the gov't is concerned, we can all go f*** ourselves. Just an observation.

Remember that the Republican

Remember that the Republican Stimulus package sent $600 directly to the people, under the Democratic plan you have to borrow the money to get it, and your credit has to be first class to borrow anything.

"Having used trillions of

"Having used trillions of dollars in loans to bail out the richest people in the country, it is time that the government take some bold steps to help everyone else." Yes, I agree. But how about the money being poured, like Niagara Falls, into Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan? Why are you not discussing the relationship between this nation's war-based economy and its massive unemployment and domestic poverty levels? Let's see another article making this connection, please. You could discuss how a single payer health care system that would put rocket engines under this country's economy! Imagine the thrilling challenge of insuring every last person in this country with an all encompassing health strategy. All we need is the funding - and the desire.

After the last Great

After the last Great Depression, the U.S. did the best it's ever done until Ronald Reagan got the country into this nutty mentality that thinks everything is sunshine and roses so long as the stock market is doing well. Let me tell you that there is absolutely no recovery to be seen here in Dayton, Ohio. Instead, every week brings more unemployment, more closed businesses, and more empty houses. I saw a bumper sticker the other day that sums it up: "Impeach Them All!"

The Title seems to be like a

The Title seems to be like a question... So, I will try to answer --Why 'WE' can't feel the recovery yet---- Because---- ALMOST ALL MEDIA IN AMRICA IS NOW OWNED, OPERATED AND EXPLOITED BY JUST A FEW GIGANTIC GLOBAL CORPORATIONS.., all of which act in their own best interest for the sake of profit and power and--- for 'LESS GOVERNMENT' in their lives, which is just a gigantic public hoodwinking leading us all down the Corporate Chronically Deregulated Road to the Corporate usurpation of The United States from WE The People for no other reason than its best for their bottom line...... What can you believe in American Media today..?..., Exactly..!!... :-D

Universal healthcare would

Universal healthcare would have gone a long way in injecting grass roots jobs into the economy. There are thousands of would be entrepreneurs out there who stay in dead end corporate or public sector jobs because they are afraid of losing their benefits- they instead would have opened businesses which would have hired milliions on the local level. But of course that's why corporate Amerika is opposed to reform- it has a stranglehood over a nucleus of the labor force, and it dreads the competetion from grass roots business companies.

Any recovery based on people

Any recovery based on people buying more is going to be short lived as the ecological collapse and global warming tell us to use less stuff. Our focus should be ecological healing and ending global warming. Put away the bulldozers and let people use shovels creates jobs and does not pollute.

If this business as usual

If this business as usual continues there is no way Obama will be reelected! He should be thinking that over seriously!

Anonymous 12:58... Who else

Anonymous 12:58... Who else will be elected?.. One of the Insane Republicans?... maybe... But, if you are thinking like me and there is no Public Option-- No Universal Healthcare for any and all who would choose to opt into it.., then I for one will never vote for any Democrat again. I swear it..!!!.. and voting for an insane Republican is out of the question. I understand the risk of having another insane President in the short run, but maybe its time for many of us to start trying to lift other political parties to power in the long run, for the sake of our children and a better government in the distant future-- and actual Government envision by our Founding Fathers and the likes of FDR and Teddy Roosevelt.., not the pile of Crap we have now with politicians acting out their BS in 24 hour, live or die Corporate Driven newz cycles.... Almost ANYTHING is better than what we have now with our current One Corporate Party System which could care less about any American beyond our collective 'Consumer Potential'...

We can't do anything because

We can't do anything because it would necessitate government action of some kind or other, and that would be socialism, one of the world's greatest evils. Unless, of course, the government is helping the rich. So just grind it out everyday, hitting the streets for a job, and maybe raise apples and pencils to sell on corners and tide you over until unfettered capitalism works its magic and the rich give you a job. On a serious note, I know that Obama is a disappointment to millions. He's not a liberal. Face it. But to punish him by sitting home in 2012 will only make matters worse. A de facto moderate Republican, which is what Obama is, is far better than one of those Yahoo right wingers dominating the Republican Party today. Liberalism is dead in America, and has been since Reagan. I don't think anything will bring it back.

You said a mouthful brother.

You said a mouthful brother. The government cooked our goose in a way that 99.7% of the people don't seem to want to understand. Yes, if we turn on the printing presses day and night, and borrow more trillions from Asia, we can certainly buy a lot of illusion for that kind of dough. But it's a puppet show. We literally take the future of this nation, and use it to bail out the very crooks who got us into this mess. Then the crooks use part of the loot to blow themselves up a nice stock bubble. Then after the last sucker has gotten back in, they'll crash it, and walk off with what's left of ma and pa's 401k. The government had a short window to bail out the people. Instead, they chose to bail out the very gangsters who have the people by the throat. It's Modern Serfdom.