Share

Saved by the Deficit?

by: Robert B. Reich  |  The New York Times

photo
Robert Reich: "All economic indicators are now pointing toward a deepening recession." (Photo: Jonathan Ernst / Reuters-Corbis)

    Berkeley, California - Both presidential candidates have been criticized for failing - at Tuesday's debate and previously - to name any promises or plans they're going to have to scrap because of the bailout and the failing economy. That criticism is unwarranted. The assumption that we are about to have a rerun of 1993 - when Bill Clinton, newly installed as president, was forced to jettison much of his agenda because of a surging budget deficit - may well be mistaken.

    At first glance, January 2009 is starting to look a lot like January 1993. Then, the federal deficit was running at roughly $300 billion a year, or about 5 percent of gross domestic product, way too high for comfort. By contrast, the deficit for the 2009 fiscal year is now projected to be $410 billion, or about 3.3 percent of gross domestic product. That's not too worrying. But if the Treasury shovels out the full $700 billion of bailout money next year, the deficit could balloon to more than 6 percent of gross domestic product, the highest since 1983. And if the nation plunges into a deeper recession, with tax revenues dropping and domestic product shrinking, the deficit will be even larger as a proportion of the economy.

    Yet all is not what it seems. First, the $700 billion bailout is less like an additional government expense than a temporary loan or investment. The Treasury will take on Wall Street's bad debts - mostly mortgage-backed securities for which there's no market right now - and will raise the $700 billion by issuing additional government debt, much of it to global lenders and foreign governments. As America's housing stock regains value, as we all hope it will, bad debts become better debts, and the Treasury will be able to resell the securities for at least as much as it paid, if not for a profit. And if there is a shortfall, the bailout bill allows the president to impose a fee on Wall Street to fill it.

    Another difference is that in 1993, the nation was emerging from a recession. Although jobs were slow to return, factory orders were up and the economy was growing. This meant growing demand for private capital. Under these circumstances, the deficit Bill Clinton inherited threatened to overheat the economy. He had no choice but to trim it, a point that the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, was not reluctant to emphasize. Unless President Clinton cut the deficit and abandoned much of his agenda, interest rates would rise and the economic recovery would be anemic.

    Next year, however, is likely to be quite different. All economic indicators are now pointing toward a deepening recession. Unemployment is already high, and the trend is not encouraging. Factory orders are down. Worried about their jobs and rising costs of fuel, food and health insurance, middle-class Americans are unable or unwilling to spend on much other than necessities.

    Under these circumstances, deficit spending is not unwelcome. Indeed, as spender of last resort, the government will probably have to run deficits to keep the economy going anywhere near capacity, a lesson the nation learned when mobilization for World War II finally lifted us out of the Great Depression.

    Finally, not all deficits are equal. As every family knows, going into debt in order to send a child to college is fundamentally different from going into debt to take an ocean cruise. Deficits that finance investments in the nation's future are not the same as deficits that maintain the current standard of living.

    Here again, there's marked difference between 1993 and 2009. Then, some of our highways, bridges, levees and transit systems needed repair. Today, they are crumbling. In 1993, some of our children were in classrooms too crowded to learn in, and some districts were shutting preschool and after-school programs. Today, such inadequacies are endemic. In 1993, some 35 million Americans had no health insurance and millions more were barely able to afford it. Today, 50 million are without insurance, and a large swath of the middle class is barely holding on. In 1993, climate change was a problem. Now, it's an emergency.

    Moreover, without adequate public investment, the vast majority of Americans will be condemned to a lower standard of living for themselves and their children. The top 1 percent now takes home about 20 percent of total national income. As recently as 1980, it took home 8 percent. Although the economy has grown considerably since 1980, the middle class's share has shrunk. That's a problem not just because it strikes so many as being unfair, but also because it's starting to limit the capacity of most Americans to buy the goods and services we produce without going deep into debt. The last time the top 1 percent took home 20 percent of national income, not incidentally, was 1928.

    Perhaps it should not be surprising, then, that the Wall Street bailout has generated so much anger among middle-class Americans. Let's not compound the problem by needlessly letting it prevent the government from spending what it must to lift the prospects of Main Street.

    ---------

    Robert B. Reich, a secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton and a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, is the author of "Supercapitalism."

  

»


Comments

This is a moderated forum.  It may take a little while for comments to go live. Be civil and on-topic, don't threaten or advocate violence, please keep it under 300 words. Thanks for participating.

Mr. Reich, we had no say in

Mr. Reich, we had no say in the matter and the bailout went through so why chide us about accepting it? We will find out if it works or if it adds 1.4 trillion to the deficit. I'm not holding up anybody. No one has come out and said freeze foreclosures and freeze evictions except for one county. I ask you why more isn't being done and why aren't you out there leading the charge?

I think that many of the

I think that many of the vast majority of Americans who may be forced to accept a lower standard of living (like myself) will still very rich by world standards. e.g. My wife and I live in a modest 1600 square foot condo. Do two people really need that much living space. Of course we use it all. But do we really need it? NO. AND, you can rationalize the national debt all you want by comparing it to the GDP etc. But people like me question those rationalizations. We can only see those huge numbers and see our debt to China and other nations piling up by the hundreds of billions of dollars, and feel very uneasy.

What kind of growth will

What kind of growth will help, what will damage the future on the thin surface of this planet? Sustainable energy is a priority investment, smart clean renewable. Obama has the basics for this. It is also a matter of war and peace. The current near-term crisis involves investment decisions that produced issues of insolvency. The longer-term problem is what real economic activities will make for better future opportunities, with liberty and justice for all, and which will destroy opportunities on the thin surface of this planet. What "growth" is helpful, what damaging? For some science on this, see the Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Science, particularly work by the Dean, Gus Speth. Check out the following: http://www.yalealumnimagazine.com/issues/2008_03/forum.html

Thank you for being willing

Thank you for being willing to stand up to the "deficit myth". There is no way to get out of a recession without government spending. Financial traitors have crashed our economy: is it better to just let people lose their jobs or should the government start hiring? Not a tough one.

"Yet all is not what it

"Yet all is not what it seems. First, the $700 billion bailout is less like an additional government expense than a temporary loan or investment. The Treasury will take on Wall Street's bad debts - mostly mortgage-backed securities for which there's no market right now - and will raise the $700 billion by issuing additional government debt, much of it to global lenders and foreign governments. As America's housing stock regains value, as we all hope it will, bad debts become better debts, and the Treasury will be able to resell the securities for at least as much as it paid, if not for a profit. And if there is a shortfall, the bailout bill allows the president to impose a fee on Wall Street to fill it." Yes, there is no market for these securities now. Why would there be one in the future? The vast majority of these are apparently worthless. I don't mean that US houses are worthless. I mean that the mountain of dirivatives based on them are worthless. The US doesn't just "issue" debt—it must sell it . What would make globa lenders and foreign governments want to buy them in the future if they don't want them now? I fail to see how this, and future, $700 billion dollar bailouts can be thought of as a loan (or even an investment!) unless one has powers of prophecy far exceeding those of the Goldman-Sachs graduates touting this bailout seem who insisted nothing was wrong just a few months ago. . "Finally, not all deficits are equal. As every family knows, going into debt in order to send a child to college is fundamentally different from going into debt to take an ocean cruise. Deficits that finance investments in the nation's future are not the same as deficits that maintain the current standard of living." Unfortunately, we are presently going into debt to fight unwinnable wars and buy up failing institutions that are costing trillions, while neglecting just the sort of infrastructure rebuilding that you say the country needs.When you add the "off budget" hundreds of billions to the untold hundreds of billions or trillions more to be required in the weeks and months ahead to slog through the economic meltdown, how can anyone have any reliable idea what the financial situation will be by January? I have great respect for Mr. Reich, but I fail to share his optimism.

Spending m0ney abroad (or on

Spending m0ney abroad (or on U.S. contractors who will bank the money abroad) will NOT contribute to the economy. All spending on war and the bloated military must cease immediately if we are to survive.

Like others here, I also

Like others here, I also respect Reich, and I didn't take this piece personally. It is beyond my ken to understand the sea of worldwide finance, so I make simpler judgments of character as my part. What do good people say? What have they done? Reich is a common-sense guy who is not afraid. If you read his blog, you see that he does not mince words, does not pander, and does not pass (much) judgment for basic human behavior. Yes, guys like Robert Reich probably have real money in the bank, which separates them from a lot of us. I don't begrudge smart and hard-working people their security. You've got to trust somebody. So, even as I perform feats of derring-do daily to acquire inventory and market my goods, all while watching my 401k shrink dramatically by the hour, I accept his view. I need to think there are compassionate and smarter-than-me people thinking hard about what needs to be done.

A couple weeks back there

A couple weeks back there was brief mention of REFUGEES whose numbers total in the Millions that are pretty much out going GW & CO`s waifs and the thing is if you weren`t paying attention Congress granted Haliburton leave to relocate specifically to a region WITHOUT extradition AND the "green-zone" in Iraq conspicuous by the complete absence of any film footage is literally a fortified mecca oasis where (www.xe.com) the Iraqi Dinar is worth 0.000852152 US Dollar that is 8 hundredths of a cent...To put it bluntly folks this "collapse" was pre-planned to house the refugees in America while Bush, Cheney and their Carlyle Group cohorts become instantly a Million fold richer than even the House of Saud and United Arab Oil Emirates combined to spend their waning years holding Mid-East oil and the world hostage to their pricing while living palatially between there green zone mecca and Haliburton Resort just watch and see!

Sounds like its time for a

Sounds like its time for a new deal, take the 700 billion and put everyone back to work rebuilding and repairing the countries' infrastructure. You could put 15 million people back to work for a year and get enough back in income taxes to put 7 million in jobs the next. Just throwing that out there.

Actually, by having the

Actually, by having the government employ 15 million people you would get way more than enough to re-hire 7 million of them the next year. The reason why is because those 15 million who are employed in the first year will spend their paychecks at the restaurants and the supermarkets and the specialty stores; and those firms will increase their inventories, so that their suppliers don't go out of business and instead prosper; and everyone along the line pays their share of taxes. You really can employ 15 million people and make a profit. The second year, they could hire 30 million people just with the increased tax revenues from the first year. Look up John Maynard Keynes and The Multiplier Effect. Seriously.