In the phantasmagoric world of officials and economic analysts, good and evil boil down to the quivering of a totem: gross domestic product (GDP). It falls 2 percent; that's a catastrophe; it climbs - trembling - some 0.3 percent; the recovery is brewing. And the obsession is to return to the "normal" 2-3-4 percent rates of growth, so that life may revert to its former splendor. This is no caricature: Dozens of statements and articles in The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Economist, Les Echos, La Tribune - and, of course, our own dear Monde - ratiocinate around this theme.

    Let's talk about the real economy, the one that centers around societies' sustainable subsistence.
The 2008-2009 recession arose from the bursting of a financial bubble swollen from excessive debt. The pieces were glued back together through the public authorities' strong and swift intervention. On top of that, massive budgetary recovery projects were launched to avoid the collapse of the economy. Consequently, public indebtedness - already significant before the recession - has grown still further. As there are limits to debt, in the future, it will hardly be possible to artificially support the economy.

    Then, there's ... energy. Growth in GDP depends on its being lost cost. Yet, Peak Oil - which we are nearing today - means that the price of fossil fuels is on the rise, even as it will remain the reference price for all energy over the next decade. Consequently, if a "recovery" should occur, it will increase the demand for oil, the price of which will rise, which will once again cool down the fires of GDP.

    Climate change is another essential element. It is urgent that we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Rich countries - even the United States - proclaim they want to decrease these by 80 percent between now and 2050: Roughly speaking, that represents an annual reduction of 3 percent. We're far from there. Either we really commit to that goal and our reduction in energy consumption transforms the economic system - but not towards "growth" - or we wait and climate disturbances will make life very difficult. China and India are beginning to feel what that's about: among water shortages, wild monsoons, floods etc. China's days of 10 percent growth rates are over!

    The third forgotten element: agriculture. A billion humans are hungry every day. With rising global population and ever more severe environmental constraints, agriculture is once again becoming a question of the utmost importance. That's what we must invest in, not in supporting the lifestyle of United States' residents.

    There will be no "emergence from the crisis." The crisis is beginning. In fact, it's not a crisis, but the beginning of a great transformation: the one that will either lead us to a human society adapted to the biosphere's limits, or, if we remain in the old "growthist" schema ... to the explosion.

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    Translation: Truthout French language editor Leslie Thatcher.

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