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A Campaign for the Ages, Tilting Toward Democrats

by: Liz Sidoti  |  The Associated Press

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Barack Obama leads in national and key battleground state polling. Democrats look to this "election for the ages" to expand their powers in the White House and Congress. (Photo: Reuters)

    Washington - Counting down to Election Day, Barack Obama appears within reach of becoming the nation's first black president as the epic campaign draws to a close against a backdrop of economic crisis and lingering war. John McCain, the battle-scarred warrior, holds out hope for a Truman-beats-Dewey-style upset.

    Whoever wins, the country's 44th president will immediately confront some of the most difficult economic challenges since the Great Depression.

    In that effort, he'll almost surely be working with a stronger Democratic majority in Congress, as well as among governors and state legislatures nationwide. GOP incumbents at every level are endangered just eight years after President Bush's election ignited talk of lasting Republican Party dominance.

    It's been an extraordinary campaign of shattered records, ceilings and assumptions. Indeed, a race for the ages.

    Democrat Obama has exuded confidence in the campaign's final days, reaching for a triumph of landslide proportions.

    "The die is being cast as we speak," says campaign manager David Plouffe.

    Undeterred, Republican McCain vows to fight on, bidding for an upset reminiscent of Democrat Harry S. Truman's stunning defeat of Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.

    Looking back only to early this year, campaign manager Rick Davis says, "We are witnessing perhaps, I believe, one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary."

    The odds for Republicans in 2008 have been long from the start: Voters often thwart the party that's been in power for two terms. And this year, larger factors are working against the GOP: the war in Iraq, now in its sixth year, and the crisis on Wall Street and in the larger economy. Voters deeply distrust government and crave a new direction.

    Republicans are girding for widespread losses.

    "It's a fairly toxic atmosphere out there," said Nevada Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the Senate GOP's campaign effort. Added his House counterpart, Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole: "We haven't caught very many breaks."

    Democrats are looking ahead to expanded power.

    "Things are looking very good," said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, the head of the House Democrats' campaign committee. New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Senate Democrats' effort, predicted: "We're going to pick up a large number of seats, and that's going to make Democrats very happy."

    The Democrats are reaching for a 60-vote Senate majority that would allow the party to overcome Republican filibusters, and could pick up two dozen or more House seats. Democrats also hope to pad their slim majority of governorships and increase their ranks in what already is their strongest majority in state legislatures in more than a decade.

    The implications are far-reaching: Governors and state legislators elected Tuesday to four-year terms will help preside over the redrawing of legislative and congressional districts following the 2010 Census. The party in charge can redraw districts in its favor.

    Atop the ticket, Obama leads in national and key battleground state polling, though the race appears to be tightening as it plays out primarily in states that Bush won twice. Among the unknowns: the choices of one in seven likely voters who are undecided or could still change their minds; the impact of Obama's efforts to register and woo new voters, particularly blacks and young people; the effect of Obama's race on voters just four decades after the tumult of the Civil Rights movement.

    "Right now, it's very clearly Obama's to lose, and I think his chances of doing so are pretty minimal," said Republican Dick Armey, the former House majority leader from Texas. He said the possibility of a McCain comeback is "getting down to slim-to-none."

    An Obama victory would amount to a wholesale rejection of the status quo: voters taking a chance on a relative newcomer to the national stage, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Chicago, rather than stick with a seasoned veteran of the party in power. With strengthened Democratic majorities in Congress, he'd have to deal with the party's left flank while governing a country that's more conservative than liberal.

    The Republican Party essentially would be in tatters, searching for both a leader and an identity.

    An Obama loss - or McCain comeback - would be a crushing disappointment for Democrats in a year tailor-made for the party. It would suggest McCain's experience trumped Obama's clarion call for change, and raise troubling questions about white Americans' willingness to vote for a black man.

    Blacks, in particular, might be furious and deeply suspicious of an almost sure thing that slipped away.

    ___

    THE PRESIDENCY:

    Tuesday's election caps a nearly two-year campaign unprecedented in many ways, merely unusual in others.

    "The candidates are more interesting. The media is bigger. The technology is better. Participation has increased dramatically," said Bob Kerrey, a former Democratic senator from Nebraska who once aspired to the presidency himself. "This is the first global campaign that the United States has had. People will always remember this as an extremely important election."

    From the start, the race was different: It was the first since 1928 in which neither a president nor a vice president competed.

    The Democratic primary was excruciatingly long, with historic and improbable characters: Obama, a black upstart Illinois senator, against a former first lady turned New York senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    McCain, at 72 once the GOP's most vocal scold, early on was the favorite for the Republican nomination. His campaign all but imploded, then he came back to overcome multiple opponents and win the party's nomination. He chose the first woman for the national GOP ticket, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

    Racism, sexism and ageism all colored the campaign, to varying degrees.

    Interest appeared exceptionally high across the globe, particularly in Obama. More than 200,000 people turned out to attend an Obama speech in Berlin when he made a trip abroad to bolster his foreign policy credentials. His U.S. crowds also were gargantuan; 75,000 in Portland, Ore., before he was the nominee, more than 100,000 in Denver just a week before the general election.

    An estimated 42.4 million people tuned in to watch Obama and McCain accept their parties' nominations.

    More voters cast ballots before Election Day than ever before. As of Saturday night, there were some 27 million absentee and early votes in 30 states. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in pre-Election Day voting in key states.

    Fundraising and spending were off the charts, too.

    McCain and Obama amassed $1 billion combined over the course of their candidacies.

    Obama reversed a previous pledge to stay in the public financing system for the general election if his opponent did. Thus, he became the first to reject taxpayer money, raising $641 million from a breathtaking 3.2 million donors. That dealt what's almost certain to be a fatal blow to the post-Watergate-era system for presidential campaigns. McCain, for his part, collected more than $250 million in contributions, and accepted $84 million in public funds.

    Obama took the next step after Howard Dean's embrace of the Internet in 2004, creating a remarkable cyber-networking tool that brought in legions of new voters.

    He expanded the Electoral College playing field by pouring advertising and manpower into Republican bastions like Indiana and North Carolina.

    Beyond any previous year, the Internet amplified the feeding frenzy nature of the media and gave campaigns new tools, including YouTube videos, partisan and nonpartisan blogs, and social networking sites like Facebook.

    Both campaigns also got burned and, as a result, curtailed the candidates' non-scripted interactions with reporters. Authenticity and spontaneity were sacrificed.

    ___

    THE SENATE:

    No matter how the presidential race plays out, Democrats are poised for gains in the 100-seat Senate. They currently have the barest of majorities 51 seats under their control, including two occupied by independents. Several pickups are likely, even if Democrats fall short of getting the magic 60 needed to stop filibusters.

    Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to pick up GOP-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, where Republicans are retiring. And many Republican incumbents running for re-election are in difficult races, including Ted Stevens of Alaska, convicted this past week on seven corruption counts.

    No Democratic seats appear in jeopardy.

    ___

    THE HOUSE:

    Democrats, with a 235-199 majority and one vacancy, are expected to add at least 20 seats. They hope Obama's coattails give them a 35-seat gain or more. It would be the first time in more than 50 years that a party saw large waves of victories that boosted their congressional margins in back-to-back elections. All 435 seats are up for election.

    Many Republican incumbents are endangered, and open GOP seats are at risk in Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and two each in New Mexico and New York.

    Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney of Florida, under investigation after admitting to adulterous affairs, is in trouble, and Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha is in a fight after calling voters in his Pennsylvania district "racist."

    ____

    GOVERNORS:

    Chief executives in 11 states are on the ballot. Democrats hope to boost their 28-22 majority.

    The GOP's best chances for gains are in Washington and North Carolina.

    Washington's Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire and GOP challenger Dino Rossi are in a repeat battle of 2004, when Gregoire won by 133 votes after two recounts and a lawsuit. In North Carolina, Republican Pat McCrory, the Charlotte mayor, is in a dead heat with Democratic Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Easley.

    Democrats expect to gain a seat in Missouri, where Attorney General Jay Nixon leads GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof. Republican Gov. Matt Blunt is leaving office.

    ____

    STATE LEGISLATURES:

    Voters also will choose 5,824 lawmakers across 44 states.

    With their strongest majority in more than a decade, Democrats hold nearly 55 percent of all legislative seats and control the legislatures in 23 states; Republicans dominate in 14 states. Twelve states are split, and Nebraska is nonpartisan.

    The election could determine the control of legislatures in several states. The biggest prize may be New York, where Democrats are two seats from taking the Senate majority. They already control the House and the governorship.

    Pennsylvania Republicans need a one-seat gain to take back the House, while Indiana Republicans need two. In Nevada, Democrats are one seat away from a Senate majority.

    ____

    BALLOT MEASURES:

    Some 153 initiatives are on the ballots in 36 states.

    Voters will weigh constitutional amendments that would ban same-sex marriage in California, Florida and Arizona.

    An amendment in South Dakota would ban abortion except in cases of rape, incest and a serious health threat to the mother; another in Colorado would define human life as beginning at fertilization.

    Initiatives in Colorado and Nebraska would ban race- and gender-based affirmative action. Washington voters will decide whether to offer terminally ill people the option of physician-assisted suicide.

    A North Dakota initiative would cut the state income tax rate by 50 percent for individuals and 15 percent for corporations. A measure in Massachusetts would repeal the income tax altogether.

    --------

    Associated Press writers Jim Kuhnhenn, Tom Raum and Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington, David Crary and Robert Tanner in New York, and Andrew Welsh-Huggins in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report.

  

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Comments

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Even before inauguration day

Even before inauguration day in January, the more-oblivious among McCain supporters will be loudly demanding to know what Obama has accomplished to that point. It will be no picnic for him in the Oval Office--as it has been for George W. Bush. With Bush the presidency was all about George, not the people. I saw no real change of that conception indicated in John McCain. With Obama, it will be service to others above self.

It's as if the corporate

It's as if the corporate media was addicted to lies, as often as they repeat them. The fact that they are owned by capitalists, and are in business for profit instead of truth, explains much. But when poll after poll, year after year, shows that Americans are, on the whole, and by substantial majorities, well to the LEFT of either of the two factions of the Business Party, in a statement which relates that Obama, if (when) elected, will have to "[govern] a country that's more conservative than liberal," it is more than a lie. It's a complete fabrication from people who know better, but then their salaries depend on them not stating truth. How that falsehood can be reconciled with "Voters deeply distrust government" must take many years of indoctrination and re-education in Ivy League or other prestigious schools of journalism. And then there's this doozy: "An Obama victory would amount to a wholesale rejection of the status quo." Nonsense. The Democratic candidate is considered serious only because of his broad and widespread acceptance of the status quo: No single-payer health care, no end to the war in Afghanistan, no cutting of the military budget... The one thing Obama has going for him is that he has been a class act from day one, inspiring hope instead of fear, a sea-change for this government, of, by and for the wealthy and well-connected. "The people will believe what the media tells them they believe." George Orwell

This will be a time to

This will be a time to remember what we were challenged to in January 1961- "Ask what you can do for your country." An Obama presidency would be possible and successful only if the citizenry responded with generosity, courage and grace - and thought of one-for-all and all-for-one approaches to what faces this nation.

Thank you Fr Tothus! You

Thank you Fr Tothus! You took the words out of my mouth. I was also insulted by the remark, "With strengthened Democratic majorities in Congress, he'd have to deal with the party's left flank while governing a country that's more conservative than liberal." The fact is, that if that statement were true, bush's ratings wouldn't be in the toilet and fibber mccain & mooselini would be ahead in the polls. The "change" people are looking for is one in which our government finally represents the will of the majority in this country - i.e. THE LEFT. We have the internet to thank for this. The MSM still hasn't accepted that they now share the stage with other voices representing a variety of self intrests other than those currently invested with industries who are defensive about representitive government. "THE PEOPLE" have been steering further and further to the left for a long time. It's just that we've finally reached a critical mass where, hopefully, it will be almost impossible to slander us with tired old propaganda from the 60s and constant attempts to correct our voting tendencies by stealing as many votes as possible. Let's hope we can KEEP the internet as a voice for diversity. This election isn't a glitch or an anomoly. It represents that fact that the "center" of gravity is shifting. People better get used to it or they're going to start looking like naysayers on the Titanic. We don't own AM radio and we don't employ cable "news" commentators. WE are the silent majority!

Twas the night before X-mas

Twas the night before X-mas and all through the House (and Senate) not a creature was stirring not even a louse. >Hi there, you remember me, I'm the guy who lost the presidential race last month. No, this is not a an advert for Viagra, although I highly recommend you use it according to the package insert instructions. No, this is an ad for Wal-Mart, time to shop folks, just like the previous president said in times of crisis you gotta shop til you drop. I understand my worthy opponent, the other guy, is calling for more shopping too. Looks like bipartisanship has arrived. Don't worry about that credit card debt, we'll take car of it. Credit card debt, it's the shoe-bomb of early 2009. One size fits all (slightly larger in Texas)

2004, 2006,and now 2008,

2004, 2006,and now 2008, music also used, lulling citizenry into past comfort: songs 'Love Goes Where My Rosemary Goes' and few others continually playing on the airwaves now. To take some of us back to the memories of a comfortable youth, still under the auspices of paternity, not needing to yet assume the civil task of voting as mature responsible citizenry.

Those that call themselves

Those that call themselves patriotic Americans and harbor racist views will have a headache when the nation gets its first black president. It is a contradiction to call yourself patriotic when you dislike the skin color of the president . The only mental relief for them would be to enter a reorientation clinic to learn what it means to be an American. African American fashions and music will become the rage with the new presidency. Some are calling it the second civil rights movement and the end of racism. Old racial prejudices might remain in the hearts of the ignorant. But they will be eliminated as they accept the reality that the first lady in America and her family is black. Racial integration will take on a new meaning as it becomes fashionable to have a black lover or friend. These events will be good news to a world that has been suffering over racial division for centuries.

Yes, thank you Fr. Tothus, I

Yes, thank you Fr. Tothus, I found the same things that you pointed out as obnoxious and smacking of a last ditch effort at brainwashing the readers in a thinly veiled attack on President Obama. Get used to it, all you corporate gun slingers, Matt Dillon is on the way and he's going to clean up Dodge City. (Yaaaaaaaaayyyy!!!!) Say goodbye to Hollywood, say goodbye, my baby...Say goodbye to Hollywood. Say goodbye, my baby. :D

The atmosphere has become

The atmosphere has become toxic, the vitriol so pervasive that personal and family relationships at odds over candidate choice have been strained to the breaking point. If Obama doesn't win in the face of everything we know, the possibility of violence is real. Too many of us have worked too hard to correct what we know in our hearts is the inequality of opportunity and the outright theft of our democracy. Anarchy is a very strong word, with many misconceptions. We have already been given the label of domestic terrorists should disagreement and revolt against another theft of our vote franchise occur, be ready for them to retaliate against a mass outpouring of outrage.

If Obama gets it (and

If Obama gets it (and lives...) to me it will be a fitting tribute and a unhoped for conclusion to the civil rights mouvt. started in the sixties. A lot of course needs to be done (and not the easiest) but thinking of those who died in the process (including Viet-Nam's soldier- victims) one can at least feel that those lives weren't squandered. Now to make sure of that, this must be understood as the starting point from which we can begin reassembling our nation along the Constitutional guidelines.

Yes, Obama and many

Yes, Obama and many democrats have a very good chance of being elected. They will have an unenviable job waiting for them. Let's hope they rise to the task.

Thanks again, FR TOTHUS, for

Thanks again, FR TOTHUS, for again knocking down a stupidity that eventually outraged me before I'd even read it, and to ANONYMOUS 20:26 for seconding his remarks. The key to this MSM bozo's mistake is that the country is left of both parties if you ask about issues or policies, but somewhat conservative if you ask for a self description. Citizens suffering cognitive dissonance? No, just the utter debasement of political language by the last thirty years of "conservative" government (yeah, Slick Willie too). And, by the by, another little missed fact: the last election in which neither candidate was a sitting Pres or VP was the 1952 election between Stevenson and Eisenhower. Down with easy to find facts when they don't fit. Long live comfortable factoids.

Thank you, Fr Tothus. Yes,

Thank you, Fr Tothus. Yes, the corporate media is addicted to lies. It helped sell the Bush presidency and allowed the country to be sold to the richest bidders. Profit and ratings instead of truth. I am noticing that it is obvious, less people are listening to their lies everyday. America no longer trusts the media. People are actually thinking for themselves.