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Good News for the GOP? Not So Much.

by: William Rivers Pitt, t r u t h o u t | Columnist

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(Photo Illustration: Troy Page / t r u t h o u t; Adapted From: ddharmasphere, snapsi42 and dutchlad / flickr)

Ever watch "SportsCenter" on ESPN? Pound for pound, it's pretty much the most consistently entertaining program on television, but if you watch enough of it, you really get a sense of the similarities shared between sports reporters and political reporters. ESPN, like CNN, MSNBC and even Fox News, has to fill 24 hours with programming each day. More often than not, there are enough games, events and high-profile arrests in the sports realm to fill the time for ESPN, just as there are usually enough murders, car chases, wars, balloon boys and stories about puppies who found their way home to fill the time for the news channels.

Sometimes, however, both "SportsCenter" and the news networks find themselves seemingly without sufficient content to make the nut. If there's an off-day for most teams during baseball season, for example, ESPN is forced to show the same handful of highlights over and over again, and then has to fill the rest of the time with hardcore analysis of stuff nobody really cares about. Conversely, if one big event happens - Terrell Owens demands a trade to Neptune, for example, or Roger Clemens admits to freebasing pine tar - the entire network focuses like a laser beam on it and leaves everything else on the cutting room floor. The way these events get reported is of a type, as well: One guy says something about it, and she reports on what he said, he reports on what she said, someone else writes an article about what they said, and presto, a consensus is reached because everyone was too lazy to do anything other than report on other people's "reporting."

That is sports journalism in a nutshell, and that is political reporting to a "T." We're all seeing an example of this now that the news networks, as well as quite a number of newspapers, have come together to declare Tuesday's off-season elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia to be some kind of earth-rattling triumph for the GOP and a devastating defeat for the Obama administration. CNN and Fox have been crowing about a "GOP sweep" thanks to Republican victories in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, and because Maine passed another virulent piece of anti-gay legislation.

It wasn't just the TV talking heads spouting this line. "The Republican victories in the races for New Jersey and Virginia governors put the party in a stronger position to turn back the political wave President Obama unleashed last year," reported The New York Times on Wednesday morning, "setting the stage for Republicans to raise money, recruit candidates and ride the excitement of an energized base as the party heads into next year's midterm elections.... The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles."

Not to break away from the pack here, but the situation deserves a little more in-depth analysis than what we've gotten so far, which has basically amounted to these news people playing umpire during a close play at the plate. Obama is out because they say so, even though it wasn't the last out, there is plenty of game left to play and the blue team is still way ahead on runs. You can't argue with the ump, though, so that out is officially A Big Deal.

Not so much.

First of all, the Democratic candidate in New Jersey, Jon Corzine, was an unbelievably unpopular incumbent who ran a tragically poor campaign. Corzine's unpopularity vastly predates Obama's impact on the electorate, and was the entire reason he lost. As for Virginia, well, that state has been a tough get for any Democrat for a couple of generations now; Obama's success there in the 2008 presidential election was the exception and not the rule for Democrats historically, and speaking of history, the party that wins the White House has gone on to lose the Virginia governor's office one year later every time since the Carter administration, so we're not into any kind of mold-breaking situation there.

Second of all, these were two statewide elections where Obama was not on the ballot, and there is no national significance whatsoever behind two states out of fifty voting for Republicans. Furthermore, Democrats cleaned up in local elections all across the country, especially in mayoral races, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of breathless reporting on this facet of yesterday's vote coming from the news folks. The umpire made the call, and that's how it goes. Or something.

Speaking of the national picture for the GOP, it is difficult to make a cogent argument that two statewide gubernatorial wins are enough to alter the country's opinion of the party, especially since the country's opinion of Republicans remains monumentally bleak. Just two weeks ago, a Washington Post/ABC News poll reported:

Less than one in five voters (19 percent) expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decisions for America's future while a whopping 79 percent lacked that confidence.

Among independent voters, who went heavily for Obama in 2008 and congressional Democrats in 2006, the numbers for Republicans on the confidence questions were even more worse. Just 17 percent of independents expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decision while 83 percent said they did not have that confidence.

On the generic ballot question, 51 percent of the sample said they would cast a vote for a Democratic candidate in their congressional district next fall while just 39 percent said they would opt for a GOP candidate.

And, perhaps most troubling for GOP hopes is the fact that just 20 percent of the Post sample identified themselves as Republicans, the lowest that number has been in Post polling since 1983. (No, that is not a typo.)

Finally, the idea that yesterday's elections bode well for the Republican Party might make for good television, but that doesn't make it right. The race in New York's 23rd District has far more national import than the other two, and the writing on the wall doesn't make for good reading for the GOP going forward. The election went sideways several weeks ago when moderate Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava came under fire from the high priests of the far right because they deemed her not conservative enough. Ersatz luminaries like Limbaugh, Beck and Palin jumped on board the third-party candidacy of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, and the resulting bedlam eventually drove Scozzafava out of the race. Scozzafava stepped aside after endorsing the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens, who went on to win Tuesday's election by a margin of 49-45.

This was a nifty win for the Democrats, because the seat was formerly held by Republican John McHugh, who vacated the seat after he was tapped by President Obama to serve as secretary of the Army. Beyond the pick-up, however, is the fact that the whole national Republican infrastructure has been shaken up thanks to this race. The hard-right GOP base revved itself up and successfully tore down an electable moderate member of their own party. If they get it into their heads to do this in other races come 2010, we could very easily watch the GOP eat itself next year, as its ground troops attack and soften up fellow Republicans, making them ripe pickings for Democratic opponents. The Democrats have been expecting to lose seats in 2010, something that nearly always happens during the first midterms of a new presidency, but open warfare within the GOP could very much mitigate the damage.

Speaking of the NY-23 race, memo to news reporters: the Democrat won. It isn't a "sweep" when the other team wins a game. The news people should ask the sports reporters for a refresher course on athletic terminology. It's probably a good idea to have your facts straight before your broadcasters open their mouths or your printing press puts ink to paper.

A wild idea, I know, but it might be for the best.

  

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William Rivers Pitt is a New York Times and internationally bestselling author of two books: "War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know" and "The Greatest Sedition Is Silence." His newest book, "House of Ill Repute: Reflections on War, Lies, and America's Ravaged Reputation," is now available from PoliPointPress.

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A moderate Democrat won in

A moderate Democrat won in NY-23, true, capturing a seat held by Republicans since the mid 1800s. Note also that a Progressive Dem won in CA-10, taking the seat of a recently resigned 'corporatist' Democrat. In terms of national politics, Nov. 2009 was, in fact, a Democratic Party 'sweep,' and the Republicans were left holding the pretty-much-empty bag of two governorships in which all four candidates were, for all practical purposes, losers. Good to see that Herr Goebbels is still alive and kicking at Fox and its immediate periphery. How else would we 'know' that yesterday was a Republican 'sweep' -- when it really was no such thing?

All you progressives - Bill

All you progressives - Bill Owens, the Democrat who took a traditionally republican House seat in NY district 23, in the special election, will be running again for a full term. I, for one, am going to work for that campaign, and look for others where progressive candidates are at risk. Cross state lines if you have to!!

Don't forget Michael

Don't forget Michael Bloombergs $200 a vote travesty in NYC mayoral race and he barely beat Bill Thompson, who Pres. Obama didn't campaign for due to entreaties from non-profits that Bloomberg lavished millions on that don't show as political contributions anywhere. Bloomberg though liberal on certain issues is more a Republican then anything else.

Brilliant! Loved the closing

Brilliant! Loved the closing line of your piece about having the facts straight - you made my day - thanks William Rivers Pitt - great stuff!

Hmmm ... In Delaware,

Hmmm ... In Delaware, Republicans have won all three recent special elections. In only one of these did the Dems put up a good candidate. The right-wingers are on the march with clever media projects like the Caesar Rodney Institute (www.caesarrodney.org/). The new "Democratic" governor, Markell, has proven to be a de-facto Republican. His latest presser boasted of having cut state employment by 1000. Seems to me the right is doing right well at the moment, moving ahead in detail while effectively blocking meaningful action on the two central issues--health care and climate. The sky isn't falling, but neither is this the time for head-in-the-sand wishful thinking.

Well I agree with the gist

Well I agree with the gist of what Mr. Pitt is talking about. It was a lot of hyped up, corporate nonsense presented by the corporate news to make it look like the greatest victory since Leonidas took on Xerxes at Thermopile. Total nonsense of course as the numbers prove. That said it seems to me the democrats are becoming their own worst enemies by forgetting the people who empowered them in the first place. Removing the single payer option for states and replacing it with state options to drop the public option has most progressives infuriated. Though none of us want to ever see the GOP regain power again(God help us all if they ever do!), some of us are beginning to wonder if we feel the same way about the democratic party.

You may be right, Mr. Pitt,

You may be right, Mr. Pitt, regarding the overall nationwide state of politics, but for those of living in Virginia, all politics are local. The foolish majority of voters here have once again heard the GOP siren song of less taxes and smaller government and believed whatever those phrases are supposed to mean for them. Too soon have they forgotten how it was eight years ago when the same song almost caused Virginia's financial rating to completely tank and caused the fairly moderate/conservative Governor (now Senator) Mark Warner to throw out his entire planned agenda in order to save the state from financial ruin. It always amazes me how the GOP can whine constantly about the Democrats so-called "Tax & Spend" philosophy and yet always get away with their "Borrow & Spend" schemes, ultimately leaving it up to the Democrats to fix, usually by having to raise the taxes to where they were to begin with.

I too thought all the

I too thought all the plather in the media about the republican governor wins in Virginia and Jersey a lot of noise about not much! We and the President just need to press on and support change that benefits all Americans. The President must not let these wins because of some media hyped fear of big republican gains modify his agenda.

That's right, Democrats! Pay

That's right, Democrats! Pay no attention to the elections. You can go back to sleep now.

My sentiments exactly. As

My sentiments exactly. As far as NJ, this is NO bellweather. Did anyone expect the voters to reelect the guy who, under his watch, closed all state services for a week in the Summer of '07 because the state ran out of money!? A vote against Corzine was NOT a vote against Obama or Healthcare, so anything that states otherwise is a distortion of facts. The NY23 race tells a far greater story that is being overlooked: A moderately conservative district formerly held by a Republican went for a Democrat. Blue Dogs need to pay attention to this, particularly those in fear of health reform damaging 2010 reelection prospects. You can quote me on this: in 2010, the Dems will not lose nearly as much in either the House or the Senate, if at all.

Well, that's business as

Well, that's business as usual for the faux news of Fox, a direct pipeline of propaganda to the poor Foxnoramuses who have been swallowing the brainwashing so long they don't even know how things really work--and of course, all the other networks who jump right in line behind Fox. It is important to keep getting the truth out there, as one of their most successful strategies in the illegal elections of 2000 and 2004 was to present the Foxnoramuses who supported Bush as a majority. The Foxnoramuses are not in the majority, but anyone who's read Mein Kampf knows that isn't as important as the public perception that they are in the majority. Keep telling it like it is, Truthout and William Rivers Pitt and all, you're saving the country.

Great analysis and from my

Great analysis and from my perspective very much on target. As far as I am concerned, let the Republicans eat their own.

...AND the ultimate insult

...AND the ultimate insult is the one pony in this trifecta R`Clown teabagger posse threw everything behind finished exactly there... BEHIND, so if anything this was a CRUSHING defeat of the anti-Obamanite obstructionist regime

...as usual, WR Pitt nails

...as usual, WR Pitt nails it. Thank god for clear voices, responding quickly.

"we could very easily watch

"we could very easily watch the GOP eat itself next year, as its ground troops attack and soften up fellow Republicans, making them ripe pickings for Democratic opponents." - let's hope that the Democrats make better use of this divided "right" than the Canadian moderate parties did during past decade when the Right was divided into the Conservative and Reform parties and their various permutations.

New bumper sticker: "I

New bumper sticker: "I Love My Fellow Republicans; They Taste Just Like Chicken!"

Forget about how many people

Forget about how many people polled no longer consider themselves Republicans. This is being touted on Olbermann and Maddow like the winning of the Powerball. What's important is how they vote on election day. So, if these "no longer a republican" voters are still going to vote republican then that may be a problem. Add into that the disillusionment of the Independents and some Democrats who put Obama into office and the threat becomes greater. Obama's timidity after taking up residence in the White House is causing some progressive and liberal voters to reconsider things.

How often we forget what the

How often we forget what the term 'news corporation' means, because we still can't shake the fantasy that the 'press' is on Team People. By law, a corporation exists for one reason only: to earn profits. Now, the headline, 'Dems Win More" isn't a ratings - hence, profit - grabber. 'GOP Smashes President Obama,' on the other hand, is. Ya got your fight, your upset 'victory,' your 'populist revolt,' etc. Truth isn't part of the equation - that's for non-profit do-gooder reporters - and, since there's no consequence for lying, news corporations will do 'whatever it takes' to earn profits for their shareholders. If not, they would be in violation of their corporate charter. Either we remove the profit responsibility from reporting, or stop bitching that news corporations are doing what they're supposed to be doing...

I am so afraid that the dems

I am so afraid that the dems are going to blow it. We could do so much at a critical time in history. My heart breaks as I see it slipping away. The republicans will replace the dems and nothing will be done! The only problem is that the Republican party will just chip away at the middle class, I'm sure no one can do the damage that George Bush did, but I am very depressed. Wake up Democrats and let's get this thing done and give HOPE and CHANGE a real chance!

"Either we hang together, or

"Either we hang together, or hang separately." The recent elections have little significance in themselves, but they do suggest that if the Democrats fail to enact significant healthcare and climate change legislation, they will drown, Blue Dogs first. The Obama measures to deal with the economy are working, but as the President has repeatedly said, it takes time. The economy will be visibly improving by the November 2010 elections. But if the Democrats get distracted by passing uproars manufactured or capitalized upon by Republicans and the broadcast media, they could still lose. There is a repeating pattern here, folks: Republican Presidents screw up the economy, then Democrats spend all their effort and credibility fixing it up again, with Republican opposition forcing them to sacrifice their other agenda goals to that end. Happened to Carter and Clinton, now Obama.

Most, if not all, politics

Most, if not all, politics is local, and I think that was true in Virginia, where I live. Deeds was a surprisingly weak candidate, and Tim Kaine's performance lackluster. It was dispiriting to see much of the campaign fall devolve into "He'll raise taxes (Deeds)," or "He's a hard-right social conservative (McDonnell)." Obviously, in Virginia fear of the first outstripped fear of the second. After last year's bruising election, the GOP would have crowed about any victory, and it's natural to try to put this in the brightest of possible lights. But Obama has not even completed his first year in office, and Congress can (and should) pass a lot of legislation before election day, 2010, including health care reform. The wins in Virginia and New Jersey may have salved injured pride, but they didn't necessarily change the landscape on Capitol Hill.

No matter how you want to

No matter how you want to look at the last election, the next election is going to be a disaster for the Democrats, to say nothing of 2012. Our president is NOT showing presidential qualities- he does not state what he wants and button-ho;e congressmen to get it. His action or lack of action on Healtcare is appalling. He is dithering on Afghanistan, when most people want to get out, and he more or less promised to get out. He has shown his lack of knowledge of the workings of the Senate- he wasn't involved in the infighting as a junior senaator for two years. The Democarats look very pathetic. I was a supporter of Obama during the last election, and I am ashamed at how much I was duped by his high sounding words. Now is no longer the time for words, which he isn't even giving us, but for action as a President.

Excellent analysis and I

Excellent analysis and I loved the sports analogies. They're very timely and something most everyone can appreciate. This should be among the pieces circulated widely to counteract the brain-numbing and brainwashing nonsense on the 24-hour channels. (Yes, MSNBC, that includes you, although you are less obnoxious than the rest.) Thank goodness for the blogosphere, FreeSpeech TV, and Jon Stewart, or we'd all think we lived in Amerika. Oh, wait....

One commenter here noted

One commenter here noted that "the Republicans are on the march . . ." How many of you want to volunteer as lemmings? It should be only a short march.

Mr. Pitts, Thank You for a

Mr. Pitts, Thank You for a sensible look. Even NPR managed to mouth the "democratic sky is falling" line. It is a sad state of affairs when the national media speaks one line. And they wonder why more and more THINKING people are turning away from them.

One thing this pep-talk of

One thing this pep-talk of an article misses, is the effect the New York election will have on Republican office holders. While a national fight is possible, it's more likely that Republican incumbents will court the base just to avoid drawing right-wing challengers. This will move the party further to the right. Don't believe me? The Washington Post reported as much this morning.

Living in Jersey as I do, I

Living in Jersey as I do, I can say for sure that Corzine was unpopular before Obama, and it was no surprise he was unpopular after Obama. I do not think these were the huge, groundbreaking wins that the media hyped them up to be. But they are a welcome break from the string of humiliations and setbacks the GOP has endured for the last few years. That is why it is such a huge deal for them. But I think we have seen some unique elements exposed in the last few weeks. As pointed out here, the GOP's identity crisis has now been laid bare. While I do expect to see them make some gains in next years midterm elections, it will probably be nowhere near as much as they are trying to convince themselves of, and they will have no one but themselves to blame.

The big story may well be

The big story may well be this; what kind of GOP 'mandate' (shmandate!) in NJ and V is really reflected in terms of actual numbers of people showing up and voting? In other words what percentage of the population of these two states wents to the polls? 35%? 51%? 28%? and then divide that by... and yes the bigger story was NY 23. The way it was being reported I thought that the RepubliCons had won that didstrict. Sorry Faux Nuz, but this little mid-term was not about Obama.

republican, democrat what's

republican, democrat what's the diff? the name only changes.

I think more than anything

I think more than anything the media needs a story to build drama for the 2010 elections. They've got advertising to sell, whether to Democrats, Republicans or Independents. And itt's difficult to sell without some drama. I like Mr. Pitt's review, but I am concerned that Obama, along with the Democratic Congress, has not acted decisively to solidify the wide victory attained in 2008. This has opened the door for the Republicans to make substantial gains next year. I hope Far Right wingnuts do shoot their Party in the foot, but I fear there is going to be a backlash to the sitzkrieg politics of the Democrats. They have delivered on next to nothing.

As always, Pitt is a sharp

As always, Pitt is a sharp strategic analyst. I am sure he has written it elsewhere, but progressives cannot depend upon the GOP civil war to solve our problems. Democratic strategy is still following the Rahm Emanuel, centrist line: cater to the center. We see this is policy and in the promotion of candidates. Absent from THIS piece is the significance of this centrist is failing to arouse the Democratic base. The best way to speak to the frustrations of the people and win them away from the simplistic, faux-populism of the hard right, is for Obama and Congress to aggressively defend the interests of "work-a-day" people. Winning over Wall Street will undoubtedly bring in the campaign contributions to fund Emanuel's centrist strategy, but a little "left populism" is the best for winning elections. Arouse the base, win over the center. Take OUR problems seriously and we will vote for you.

Here's the way the Virginia

Here's the way the Virginia race looked from the viewpoint of a Democrat in Virginia. Thanks to a late Washington Post endorsement, the most conservative Democrat, Creigh Deeds, won the Party's nomination. He came across as a decent, cautious, right-of-center "centrist" who ran a lousy campaign. His thinking seemed to be that he would be safe, stodgy, and centrist, holding on to all the Black voters, progressives, and young folks who energized the Obama campaign, while picking up additional votes from the rural areas of the state.. Surprise! Blacks, progressives, and young people responded to his indifference in kind and largely sat on their hands. At the same time, rural conservatives decided that, as the saying goes, "given the choice between a Republican and a Democrat who talks like a Republican, they'll vote Republican." And yes, it does have implications for Obama. People who thought Obama was going to get us out of the war business, who thought he would be open to the will of the people (think "single-payer health care), and who thought he would reverse course on extraordinary rendition and government secrecy are feeling as if they were taken for a ride. Turns out we shouldn't have believed in "change you can believe in." Disillusionment is a hard platform to run on.

The cable stations should

The cable stations should all be paying royalties to Vince McMann over at the WWF. He started this whole entertainment format. Cable News is just like Pro Wrestling, it all looks real but it's pretty much all scripted.

The top example of mindless

The top example of mindless non-analysis was Maine. Gay marriage lost 47-53 while marijuana won 60-40. I have no model to account for it, but I observe that either one or the other result gets commented on with the expected emotionalism, while the juxtaposition tends not to be mentioned at all.

@Neil in Chicago, I'm not

@Neil in Chicago, I'm not sure why you cannot account for the the different results for the two questions. Rather than hoping to find one "model to account for" both the votes. perhaps each vote should be considered in terms of how closely they reflected public opinion, rather than abstract philosophical notions? Given current public opinion, the medical marijuana was pretty moderate. Over time, most people have come to believe patients in need should be able to use marijuana if they can get a doctor to agree. Had the vote been on full legalization of recreational marijuana, the vote would been lopsided against it. The vote on gay marriage was necessarily framed as a vote to override the Maine legislature's approval of full same-sex marriage. It NARROWLY won. If Maine had not had legal same-sex marriage and had the Washington state measure been on the ballot in Maine, I have no doubt Maine voters would have approved the "marriage in everything but name" approach. I do not live in Maine, but from the distance, I think smart advocates would work to push through the Washington-style bill next session or try to get it on the ballot next November. They would win and the struggle for gay and lesbian equality would take a major step forward, not through the actions of a court, but through the active assent of their neighbors.