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Jobless Claims Jump Unexpectedly to 16-Year High

by: Christopher S. Rugaber  |  The Associated Press

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Paul Nawrocki wears a sign saying he is looking for work in New York. A rapidly weakening job market is expected to get even worse next year. (Photo: Bebeto Matthews / AP)

    Washington - New claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week to a 16-year high, the Labor Department said Thursday, providing more evidence of a rapidly weakening job market expected to get even worse next year.

    The government said new applications for jobless benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 542,000 from a downwardly revised figure of 515,000 in the previous week. That's much higher than Wall Street economists' expectations of 505,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

    That is also the highest level of claims since July 1992, the department said, when the U.S. economy was coming out of a recession.

    The four-week average of claims, which smoothes out fluctuations, was even worse: it rose to 506,500, the highest in more than 25 years.

    In addition, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment insurance rose sharply for the third straight week to more than 4 million, the highest since December 1982, when the economy was in a painful recession.

    The financial markets fell on the news. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped about 160 points in morning trading, and broader indexes also fell.

    The jobless figures come as the Senate is expected to vote Thursday on legislation that would extend unemployment benefits. The White House said President George W. Bush would quickly sign the bill.

    The measure would provide seven additional weeks of payments to those who have exhausted their benefits. Those in states where the unemployment rate is above 6 percent would be eligible for an additional 13 weeks beyond the 26 weeks of regular benefits. Benefit checks average about $300 a week nationwide.

    Without the legislation, its proponents say, 1.1 million people will have exhausted their unemployment insurance by the end of the year.

    Elsewhere Thursday, the New York-based Conference Board said its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8 percent in October, worse than the 0.6 percent decrease analysts expected. The economy's health worsened last month as stocks, building permits and consumer expectations all fell, the private research group said. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7 percent annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001.

    The high level of continuing unemployment claims partly reflects growth in the labor force, which has increased by about half since the early 1980s. The percentage of workers continuing to receive benefits - which is different from the unemployment rate - increased to 3 percent, the highest since June 2003. Less than half of unemployed workers receive unemployment insurance.

    Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., a consulting firm, said the four-week average of continuing claims is 49 percent higher than it was a year ago. That "indicates that those who are unemployed are finding it increasingly difficult to get re-employed."

    Shapiro wrote in a note that the number of claims indicates that net job reductions by employers could top 400,000 this month, up from 240,000 in October, when the unemployment rate reached 6.5 percent. Companies have cut 1.2 million jobs so far this year.

    Many economists expect unemployment to reach 7 percent by early next year and 8 percent by the end of 2009. Last year the rate averaged 4.6 percent.

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released projections that the jobless rate will climb to between 7.1 percent and 7.6 percent next year, according to documents from the Fed's Oct. 29 closed-door deliberations on interest rate policy.

    Initial claims have been driven higher in the past several months by a slowing economy hit by the financial crisis, and cutbacks in consumer and business spending.

    Economists consider jobless claims a timely, if volatile, indication of how rapidly companies are laying off workers. Employees who quit or are fired for cause are not eligible for benefits.

    Companies from a wide range of sectors have announced layoffs recently, including Citigroup Inc., Union Pacific Corp., Boeing Co., Wyeth, Sun Microsystems Inc., and poultry maker Pilgrim's Pride Corp.

    -------

    AP Business Writer Ellen Simon in New York contributed to this report.

  

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So giving all those tax

So giving all those tax breaks and give-aways to the rich really created a lot of jobs, huh!? Damn them all to hell! We have a very deep hole to dig out of. Alas, American voters have finally come to their senses, however late it might be. Let's hope this can be turned around. It's going to take some time for sure.

Missing in all of this "nuz"

Missing in all of this "nuz" are the stats on those of us who are self-employed (and are not counted as unemployed)and therefore not eligible for unemployment benefits. I work in the construction trades as a painter and there is nada, zip, zilch going on for work. And nothing much to apply for work wise as stores are closing up, restaurants disappearing...lots of commercial for rent signs all over town these days. Yes, I think we are already at the beginning of the Greater Depression.

American voters believed in

American voters believed in promises that can't be kept, again. Different messages for different groups of voters, with the consequence that only some of the messages will be adhered to. Guess which ones. I hear they will try inflation on a massive scale. It's a good thing more of us work out these days. Maybe we can cram all the bucks we'll need to buy a cabbage in a back-pack rather than a wheel barrow. Who's happy about the proposed agriculture czar? We will have more diversity for sure with more chemical agriculture--just what Gates/Rockefeller and friends have been planning for Africa. We might get our very own suicide-by-pesticide epidemic. So much for right to life. Santa Barbara is one of the few places to win against tax-payer-financed broad-scale spraying. If you are rich enough, you can go there. I can envision deep-pocketed refuges renting back yards in Santa Barbara. Have you seen the latest yurt ads? They seem so cozy.

Right now the world, not

Right now the world, not just the American people has good reason to be afraid. We are caught in a downward spiral that seemingly is without end. Yes, we have finally thrown the Bush administration out, but the damage is extensive and the remedy is complicated and painful-if one even exists. As Richard Nixon-of all people said-"in such a mess we are all Keynsians and you have to hope that a massive spending program on high ways high speed rails etc. might help. However, this is not guaranteed and remember the Depression was only broken by the most massive deficit spending program of all,WWII. Is there the will to incur that kind of debt? I am not sure, particularly when I read the posts of people on"liberal" blogs who are harnessed to the notion of financial responsibility. I won't even get into what the other side believes. And there is reason to fear inflation, but that is a risk that has to be run, and in all likely hood the danger of stagflation is remote as deflationary pressure has reared its ugly head and the danger is more from a a downward drift than the contrary.But I could be wrong. What really is scary is the complexity of the problems. Take if you will the situation of the auto companies. What do you do? Bail them out and go the way of Leland in Britain? Or adopt a partial nationalization as in France with Renault? What about the union? Do you suspend health care reform- one of the components of the problem or bang it through now-this would be my choice, however, the politics in the US may make that impossible. Obama is going to have a hell of a job. He didn't make this mess, but will be blamed for any failure to repair the damage. And remember for all their good intentions, the New Dealers didn't end the depression the war did. Singing Hitlers over here, Dancing Hitlers over there.