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Shall We Call It a Depression Now?

by: Robert Reich  |  Robert Reich's Blog

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Lazaro Lopez and Ivellise Bell stand in line at the employment help center "Workforce One" in Miami, Florida. Across the nation, employers have cut more than 1.2 million jobs over the last three months. (Photo: Getty Images)

    Today's employment report, showing that employers cut 533,000 jobs in November, 320,000 in October, and 403,000 in September - for a total of over 1.2 million over the last three months - begs the question of whether the meltdown we're experiencing should be called a Depression.

    We are falling off a cliff. To put these numbers into some perspective, the November losses alone are the worst in 34 years. A significant percentage of Americans are now jobless or underemployed - far higher than the official rate of 6.7 percent. Simply in order to keep up with population growth, employment needs to increase by 125,000 jobs per month.

    Note also that the length of the typical workweek dropped to 33.5 hours. That's the shortest number of hours since the Department of Labor began keeping records on hours worked, back in 1964. A significant number of people are working part-time who'd rather be working full time. Coupled with those who are too discouraged even to look for work, I'd estimate that the percentage of Americans who need work right now is approaching 11 percent of the workforce. And that percent is likely to raise.

    When FDR took office in 1933, one out of four American workers was jobless. We're not there yet, but we're trending in that direction.

    Consumers will tighten their belts even further. Even if they have a full-time job, they're witnessing these job losses or hourly declines all around them and wondering if their job could be next on the chopping block. Their indebtedness is still high, by historic standards. And many are worried as well about their mortgage payments. So consumer spending is also falling off a cliff.

    Two things are needed: First, the massive Treasury bailout of the financial industry must be redirected toward Main Street - loans to small businesses, distressed homeowners, and individuals who are still good credit risks. Second, a stimulus package must be enacted right away. It needs to be more than $600 billion - which is 4 percent of the national product. It should be focused on job creation in the United States - infrastructure projects as well as services. Construction jobs are critical but so are elder care, hospital, child care, welfare, and countless other services that are getting clobbered. Service businesses accounted for two-thirds of the job cuts in November, meaning that the weakness in labor markets has shifted from the goods-producing sector of the economy to the far larger services sector.

  

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Comments

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I agree that the unemployed

I agree that the unemployed are under-counted. I took the choice to retire early when the school district that I worked for needed to cut positions. Many people end up with part time jobs because that way, a lot of employers can avoid covering medical benefits, etc. A part time job is not just half of a full time job...it is quite a bit less. I do not understand how bailing out the auto industry will help when few can afford to buy new cars. I do not understand how anything will work when we are bleeding money to military contractors and arms manufacturers and servicing the debt on loans to cover these expenses. If he who pays the piper calls the tune, will China and Saudi Arabia be calling our tunes now?

Only when we give up the

Only when we give up the myth of endless growth will we be able to start to fix the economy.

We have no president until

We have no president until January 20, and nobody is going to do anything until then. The threshold between then and now is unbelievably dangerous. All we can do is hunker down and hang on. And if you're the praying type, pray. Heck, pray even if you're not the praying type.

Save the economy!!! Build

Save the economy!!! Build more cars!!! Hell, that's the latest form of the trickle down theory I've heard of. How about a "bottom up" plan. Not half way down to "main street". The bottopm. The minimum wage people. They may not buy cars right away, but they will buy food - and maybe even pay the rent.

It hardly ever gets

It hardly ever gets mentioned that there's a vast amount of money available for all sorts of worthwhile projects - if only the military budget were sized appropriately.

It is a depression if you

It is a depression if you are out of work and have bills to pay. A lot of kids will be moving back home.

The United States is caught

The United States is caught in a conundrum of its own making. Do we react rapidly, and in doing so run the risk of not properly targeting spending, or do we take time to reflect on what should be done and run the risk that by the time action is taken that it will be too late? Clearly, something must be done. At the moment every sector public and private is under the hammer as a result of falling revenues and a loss of confidence. So it may be that unorthodox measures will have to be tried out. For example if you are out of work and on unemployment but you succeed in landing a temporary, or minimum wage job, well you can take it and keep the benefits as well. This would give the individual added income which would move more money. And this person would still qualify for medicare, a step that could segue neatly into the single payer system that America needs to be competitive in the new century. Education which is highly touted but normally neglected at the moment of truth has to be returned to the federal government-states are broke and graft is rife. Mortgages should be allowed to float. In other words if you buy a mortgage at 150 and the value goes down to 100 you have a mortgage foe 100. If the market rises so does your mortgage. The tax system also requires closer examination . To get people back to work financial companies should pay more, much more than labor intensive firms. Unions should be obligatory. And finally, we need an industrial policy and a planned economy. As in football you have to change with the times, you can't win in the era of the West Coast offense playing Flying wedge football.

I think that Republicans -

I think that Republicans - including every person who voted for George Bush - should apologize for their wreckage of our economy, and that we should examine in detail, the misconstrued policies that got us here. This is not spiteful "looking back" but an innoculation against their inevitable future opposition to new ideas that will get this country back on track. In the 19th century these people would have been tarred and feathered, which would look especially good on Cheney. Think about it - how have tax cuts, military spending, deregulation and more perks for the rich helped us? Yet they are already trotting out these ideas again as they pre-emptively criticize what Obama "might" do when he becomes president. It's time for the lies and deceit to end. Millions of Republican Americans who, completely deluded, voted against their own economic interests are now suffering. The answer is government investment in policies and infrastructure that will help us rebuild; that means renewable energy and an end to wars.

If you want to do a bailout

If you want to do a bailout that will improve the economy, then one place to look at also is doing a student loan amnesty. People go to college to better their lives, but for poor people it winds up just saddling them with debt while rarely improving their ability to find a good-paying job. If you got rid of student loan payments (many of which are to the gov't itself) then all of those people would have that much more cash, and they would spend it. My student loans were consolidated by the gov't at 18%, which in any other industry would be usury. I'll never get out from underneath that debt, but if I didn't have those payments then I would be spending that money on other necessary things -- $400 average per month into the economy per student loan would help!

We had 30 years of pretty

We had 30 years of pretty much unfettered capitalism. And it failed miserably. It is time to go to "unfettered socialism". If it doesn't work we can try something else. Seize the wealth of the top 5 % in this country and spread it around. If the rich don't like it they can dodge the door on their way out. In a democracy the majority rules. And that is the poor and working class, not the parasitic investor class. Screw them...

It's only a depression for

It's only a depression for the out of work.

I think we're in a

I think we're in a depression, and I think we need to commit ourselves to holding the automotive industry together somehow because it's about the last bastion of large-quantity manufacturing of large machinery in this country. If that physical plant and know-how is allowed to disperse we may never get our act together again soon enough to keep ourselves secure. WWII may be an overused example, but we couldn't have won it without the industrial might we had in those days. It would be embarrassing in a future war to have to buy ammunition and equipment from China, especially if they were our foe.

Bailout??? If you really

Bailout??? If you really want to stimulate the economy, quit throwing gas on a fire that will eventually burn out and into useless ash anyways......Instead write 350 million checks for $1,000,000. and mail emout to every citizen and then you'll see an increase in spending and a recovery of our labor force, stimulating the economy.. 700 billion to a failing financial market, 25 billion to a failing auto company.. .... That or erase every personal debt in America of every US person that is a born or naturalized citizen... Drastic measures isn't a bigger national deficit that will yield no viable and immediate economic return...

Vladimir Putin seized the

Vladimir Putin seized the opportunity to rid Russia of its parasitic mendacious military when a man landed a small plane in Moscow Square. Our military failed to protect us from more baneful incursions. They get 60% of our money without performing any function: unless it is to enrich the Carlyle Group and torture for fun. Restructure our military and adjunct agencies and there will be money to create a civil society. Take every penny from the top 10%. Its fair 'cause they have lots of it stashed overseas. Voila! Money enough to fix everything and create a nice new USA.

Great commentary. I agree,

Great commentary. I agree, things are bad and heading the wrong direction. Wall Street is crippled and dying and taking alot of wealth with it. The mistake was made over twenty years ago when Reagan began deregulating and moving our manufacturing abroad. Successive presidents have kept up this policy with the Finacial sector calling the shots. Rubin just got a huge sweetheart deal to rescue City. I'm calling for a "quantum leap" forward in the investments we are about to make. Energy effiecency makes great sense because the savings compound quickly and it puts people to work and money into local communities. Detriot goes on life support for 5 months. No more Wall street bailouts, AIG sucked up too much money, no one to too big to fail especially when they wrote Credit Default Swaps which are now being paid off at taxpayer expense, to hell with the wealthy who own these. What Obama and Democrats do next year defines the lives of our children and grandchildren. We must choose wisely. Beware the vested special interests with their hands held out. Simple question, UAW could buy ownership of GM for two billion dollars, they have this in their pension funds, they need to think creatively rather than us bailing them out. The next year will decide our future.

"Growth for the sake of

"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." --Edward Abbey We MUST move towards a truly sustainable economy, based on local green jobs. It is the only thing that can simultaneously address with the same dollar spent the three greatest threats facing the US (and the world) today: 1.) a tanking economy; 2.) global warming; and 3.) war as an energy policy.

By golly, the establishment

By golly, the establishment has woken up to something the unwashed have known for months. There is my friend who was working for GMAC as a loan officer and now employed at WAL-MART. And that is not called underemployed? Ah yes, when our government gives up its addiction to starting barroom brawls with everyone in sight costing us $1.50+ gal gas (Iraq War Budget/10M bbls day gasoline), end the class warfare they have been conducting for the last 3 decades, start drive the country by looking out the front windshield instead of staring in the rear view mirror we will stop driving into parked economic cars and running through economic stop signs and red lights. "I believe", the two most catastrophic words in the language of man. urge