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US Economy Shrinks as IMF Warns of Great Depression

by:   |  Agence France-Presse

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Stocks continue to fall worldwide as the IMF warns of another possible "Great Depression" in the US. (Photo: Reuters)

    Washington - The US economy shrank in the third quarter, official data confirmed Tuesday, as the IMF's top economist warned of a second Great Depression offering no respite from relentless gloom ahead of Christmas.

    The abrupt 0.5 percent contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's largest economy was seen as marking the start of a steep downturn for the United States after GDP growth of 2.8 percent in the second quarter.

    Stocks on Wall Street rose in early trading, however, as the contraction had been expected and was unrevised from a previous estimate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.54 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.60 percent.

    "This report is largely old news," said John Ryding at RDQ Economics, who forecast fourth-quarter data out next month would be far bleaker.

    "Given signs that the recession has deepened in the current quarter, we look for around a 6.0 percent drop in real GDP," he said.

    Britain's economy also shrank by 0.6 percent in the three months to September compared to the previous quarter, against a previous estimate of 0.5-percent contraction, the Office for National Statistics said.

    Britain and the United States will be in recession if their economies contract again in the fourth quarter, according to the traditional definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

    The IMF's top economist, Olivier Blanchard, maintained that governments around the world should boost domestic demand in order to avoid another Great Depression similar to the global downturn that shook the world in the 1930's.

    "Consumer and business confidence indexes have never fallen so far since they began. The coming months will be very bad," Blanchard said in an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde.

    "It is imperative to stifle this loss of confidence, to restart household consumption, if we want to prevent this recession developing into a Great Depression," he added.

    New data out in France offered some relief, showing that household consumption of manufactured goods - a key growth indicator - rallied 0.3 percent last month after slumping in October.

    "It is a first small Christmas present for the French economy," said Alexander Law, an economist at the Xerfi research centre in Paris.

    The European Central Bank also issued some heartening pre-Christmas data showing that the eurozone's current account deficit had narrowed to 6.4 billion euros (9 billion dollars) in October from 8.8 billion euros in September.

    But elsewhere in Europe the news was more downbeat. Retail sales in Italy went down 0.3 percent in October, Denmark's economy contracted 0.4 percent in the third quarter and the Dutch economy had zero growth, official data showed.

    Finland's unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in November from 5.8 percent in October and the Polish central bank cut its key lending rate by 75 basis points to 5.00 percent in a bid to fend off a recession.

    In Ukraine, thousands of people took to the streets for a union-led protest to demand higher wages and more social protection in the former Soviet republic, which has been hit hard by the global economic crisis.

    News of weakening growth also sent the British pound sliding under 1.0550 euros, nearing a record low of 1.0463 reached last week, as dealers bet on more interest rate cuts from the Bank of England and forecast parity with the euro.

    The dollar exchange rate also drifted lower against the euro and the yen.

    European stocks rose in early afternoon trading after the announcement of US GDP figures, with the FTSE 100 index in London up 0.85 percent, the Frankfurt Dax up 0.73 percent and the CAC 40 in Paris up 0.92 percent.

    Asian stocks closed mostly down, with the Hong Kong stock market shedding 2.8 percent and Shanghai sinking 4.55 percent as a smaller-than-expected Chinese interest rate cut failed to boost market sentiment.

    Oil prices went up slightly in New York, rising above 40 dollars per barrel.

    Energy analysts were also keeping a close eye on a meeting of key world natural gas exporters in Moscow amid fears of a "gas OPEC" similar to the Vienna-based oil cartel that could raise gas prices for Western consumers.

    Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said at the forum that the "era of cheap gas" was coming to an end and Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez argued that gas exporters' group should be based on the "same principles" as OPEC.

  

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The criminal cartels that

The criminal cartels that have taken over the world's banking system are in their end-game phase, rampantly looting the US Treasury with impunity right up through the end of the Bush junta, and as long as they dare in the new days of the Obama administration. This theft and debasement of virtually all the world's money will require some serious constitutional adjustments to correct. Abolishing the federal reserve, cancelling the currencies and investments that are held by the criminals, and a new currency to be distributed to honest citizens based on tax and bank records will be needed, as well as government investment into worthy infrastructure projects as the remnants of our industries lack the talent and wisdom to produce anything useful at this point. Call this socialism? A socialist economy has been in place in America a LONG time already. It is the difference between democracy or fascism at the helm of it that we are going to see. ALL depressions as opposed to mere recessions are caused by unbridled corruption that eventually renders a civilization unworkable.

This was pretty interesting.

This was pretty interesting. Certainly there is a looting of some kind going on--or so it would seem. it may be one born of greed or ignorance. it may be more or less direct. The omment on socialism is certainly worthy. We are socialistic in so many ways, and many of them are a good thing -- Socieal Security comes to mind). The idea of replacing the currency in circulation with new stuff to thwart the dishonest ones who have the old-- we used that in Vietnam to thwart the drug dealing troops, bootleggers, pimps and extortionists and oursied-the-wire drug distributrs and whores...once we changed the money, they had a pile of worthless paper.

If it were only that easy.

If it were only that easy. The cartels of the Wall Street criminals are already ahead of the game. Just ask Paulson, he is one! Why else would GW give him immunity on day one? Before $1 was spent on the TARP money, aka the Trap? Wall Street should have been shut down eons ago. It's nothing more than legalized institutional gambling, couched in years of greed. That coupled in the fact that congress has gone on a spending spree the past 8 years funding a war, Iraq, that never should have happened and when the investors of the world, mainly China invested their billions we gave them to build just about anything we could get them to build with their cheap labor; China then took their billions and went to Wall Street. China and many other investors put their billions in T-bills. Then all that new money made Wall Street drunk. Then Wall Street went to the mortgage bankers, i.e. Countrywide and said “Hey boys do we have a deal for You!”. With billions of new investors money, Countrywide came up with the Pick-a-payment mortgage that is burying the housing market. Yes Countrywide also fueled the sub prime debacle as well. You see Countrywide had their own sub prime division, and it was huge. Countrywide is what is called a “Market Maker”! They literally sold this pick-a-payment idea to 100’s of banks. Chase, Wamu and many other banks are now gone thanks to Countrywide. I can see what the past 8 years of greed and corruption has done. It broke our economy. The US of A will never, and I mean, never be the same again. Will we be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat with this so called fiscal stimulus idea? No, that is only going to crush what is already broken even more. What happens went we, the ordinary working stiff, spends more than we have? It means we do without. It’s not going to be any fun but there is no way out of this drunken spending stupor that we have been on for a long time.

We are witnessing the end

We are witnessing the end result of Reaganomics as applied by the Republican Party with no meaningful opposition by the Democratic Party over the past 25 years. When 95% of the growth in GDP goes to the top 5% of the country's elite, there is little left over for the worker/consumer. Economists forget that it is the workers who are the consumers and who drive the economy and not the wealthy few with their multiple mansions, yachts, private jets, and $6,000 shower curtains. Trickle down economics requires profligate spending beyond the capabilities of the even the most decadent capitalists. There numbers are just too few.

True that. So it looks like

True that. So it looks like our choices are to a) nationalize all corporations and oil firms, or b) legalize industrial hemp to replace the oil economy. Anyone for both?

It's interesting that during

It's interesting that during any major disaster (but especially during Katrina, with the racial bias of the recovery aid, the reporting and the law enforcement), the media likes to scream about "looters" and thugs breaking into businesses and homes. The same people whom they accuse of that during the highly visible, clear disasters like Katrina - the poor, the lower-middle class, usually non-whites and what people would consider "white trash" - these very same people have been remarkably restrained thus far as the economy that they were never allowed to really take part in comes crashing down about their ears - and the crash was engineered by the ones who pay the media to do the finger-pointing. Seriously, you couldn't write this stuff for fiction if you tried.

It IS time to nationalize

It IS time to nationalize major corporations and industries. The current principals of the banking and financial world ought to be in orange jumpsuits picking up trash at the side of the road. It's time to make this happen!

Yes the failure of

Yes the failure of Reagonomics has taken place. The conservatives who have been fox news lemmings have to wake up to this obvious fact! those conservatives can try to blame it on complete b.s. but that does not fly at all anymore. And yes the Democratic party did very little to oppose it. They have done very little to oppose anything in at least the past 26yrs. There have been too many corporate politicians on both sides of the aisle and they have destroyed this country from within. they destroyed it all for greed and power and not giving a damn about the American people or even the world economy! The greed and corruption in this country has gone so off the charts. It is truly sickening. But the rich bankers for the most part who were in bed with the politicians get their HUGE bail out and all their perks. I find it odd that this country has been so corrupted in Wall Street, giving tax cuts to the wealthy, corporations being able to have addresses in Bermuda so they dont have to pay taxes, NAFTA being passed which was absolutely horrible on so many levels, The IRaq war which was an illegal war based on lies, Bush and Cheney and their cronies dont get impeached! the pillaging of Iraq, the stealing of the treasury by not rebuilding IRaq but just taking all the money by Black Water and KBR, the torture, and secret rendition, the failure of the warnings before 9/11, the failure of warnings of an economic disaster. I have never seen this country be so screwed up in so many ways and a country being destroyed from within to such a degree. I hope Obama can turn this country around for the better. I really do... I think Ralph Nader when he ran for president spoke the truth as always but no one ever listens to him. Interesting...

At least, the crashing and

At least, the crashing and burning of the United States' criminal capitalism opens the door for reforming this country into a social democracy. There is a precious window of opportunity here, Mr. Obama. Makes me think of the old hymn, "Once to every man and nation comes the moment to decide, In the strife of truth with falsehood for the good or evil side, Then the chance goes by forever. . ."

The real blame should be

The real blame should be placed on the American voters who simply reelect their representatives without thinking. The representatives spend money that doesn't exist to keep their constituents happy so that they are reelected and, in an endless cycle, the house of cards has gotten taller and taller. Finally it has come tumbling down and all the comments here try to blame somebody else or some label instead of the poster looking in the mirror and taking responsibility for what they themselves have done. If there is "unbridled corruption" it has been approved by your elected representatives but you have approved their actions so it has been approved by you by your votes to reelect them. So the real responsibility lies on you.

Create demand? How about

Create demand? How about selling what I’m buying; a national single-payer health care system, mass transit, smaller class sizes, products that aren’t engineered for obsolescence, higher education funding without joining the army. As far as the load of consumer crap that the IMF wants me to buy, I’m the Grinch, posed at the precipice with a loaded sleigh about to pull me into oblivion. Pile on some more worthless doodads? No thanks.

Yes, it's all true: The

Yes, it's all true: The criminal cartels, corporate welfare we've talked about for years, we are at fault for keeping the bums in office, and on. Two things we all tend to forget. Two things that move ever steadily as corporate power toward fascism. Let's not mince words. That's what it is. Those two things are the corporate owned media, mostly tv, which most people depend on for information, and our election system, the latter so corrupt, a man was killed because he was going to testify. Did we hear about it on mainstream news? I didn't. With the media told what to say, what to print, and the overflowing blogs and misinformation of the net, how can we possibly have an informed public when opinion is shaped by the very people who have all of the power? Where is the sacred right of all voters? What happened to our right to an unhampered, counted, vote? Without these two basic elements in a democracy, we have no democracy, not even with St. Obama.

Why should anyone accept as

Why should anyone accept as accurate the Bush-Cheney Administration figures that there WAS 2.8% growth in the second quarter? The national conventions still hadn't happened, and the Republicans were running a desperate campaign. Wasn't there a fast news flash a week or so ago that it turns out the low unemployment numbers for that same period were an "error"?

Bush's acumen: "I-rack ain't

Bush's acumen: "I-rack ain't no VeetNam". "This economy ain't in no Dee-pression". "Don't feel like it's gettin' warmer ta me"

We need a Green Economy per

We need a Green Economy per Vann Jones or Lester Brown. Isn't the plan to move industry out of the US to cheap labor markets..When we beg to have the Corporations back with tax breaks they will let us manufacture again...Plant gardens..Wes Jackson says the answers are w our farmers.

Consumption is ended.

Consumption is ended. Ultimately the world will reject consumption as an economic engine. Over the last 50 years, with strategies like "planned obsolescence", growth has been sustained by stuff moving from factories to landfills. Over the last 20 years the US ability to produce what we need has moved off shore. Call it protectionist if you like, but we are in for a very rough 10 years as we rebuild our manufacturing sector to take care of a domestic economy. Time value of money is now in question. Our monetary system must be sustainable in times of zero or negative growth. The 2000 year old ponzi scheme will end soon. May we find our humanity, come to know our value and prepare for a self reliant existence. Peace.

That trickle-down

That trickle-down Reaganomics you feel is the rich pissing on you. They get "socialism" while the rest of us get the shaft. Maybe after we run out of money, food and fuel, and can't pay our bills or our credit card debt, Americans will finally realize what's going on and do something about it--like getting rid of a corrupt and clueless Congress.