Battle for Control of Congress Tightens
    By John Whitesides
    Reuters

    Sunday 01 October 2006

    Washington - President George W. Bush's recent gains in approval ratings have improved Republican prospects in the November 7 fight for Congress, but analysts say Democrats still have the upper hand with a disaffected public in the mood for change.

    As Congress adjourned for a final five-week campaign blitz, polls show voters are unhappy with the direction of the country, dissatisfied with the Republican-led Congress and more likely to favor Democrats in their local House races.

    In the past week, Democrats turned public attention back to the unpopular war in Iraq and put the White House on the defensive in a heated debate over a National Intelligence Estimate that said the conflict had fueled Islamic extremism.

    But Bush's slight rise in approval ratings in the last month, a big drop in gas prices and renewed voter attention to the fight against terrorism, usually a party strength, encouraged Republicans and improved their position in some tight races, analysts said.

    "For Republicans, the outlook remains bad but is no longer horrific," said political handicapper Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

    Republican consultant Whit Ayres said: "We're still climbing a mountain, but it is not as steep as it was a month ago. We can see the possibility of holding the House and Senate, and that was a very difficult outcome to see a few months ago."

    All 435 House seats, 33 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships are at stake in November, when Democrats must gain 15 House seats and six Senate seats to reclaim majorities.

    Democrats are still in a strong position to retake the House and have an outside chance to seize control in the Senate, but both chambers remain up for grabs as voters begin to turn their full attention to the election.

    "Now it's right on the edge of the butter knife - a couple of seats one way or another will determine control of the House and the same in the Senate," said Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia.

    Republicans have several tactical advantages down the stretch, with a considerable financial edge on Democrats and a battle-tested voter turnout operation that proved effective again last month for Sen. Lincoln Chafee in the Rhode Island primary.

    "Good Closers"

    "Republicans have mastered the art of turnout, and they are very formidable in the last weeks of an election," said Democratic consultant Jenny Backus. "They are good closers."

    While the political weight dragging down Republicans has eased in recent weeks, Bush and Republicans found themselves in a fresh battle over Iraq after the release of the NIE and a new book by the Washington Post's Bob Woodward, who said Bush ignored early warnings that more troops were needed in Iraq.

    Presidential approval ratings are often the best indicator for mid-term elections, and Bush's ratings have climbed to the low 40s from the mid-30s in August. But that only puts him even with President Bill Clinton's rating in 1994 before opposition Republicans crushed his Democrats and took over the House.

    A Reuters/Zogby poll last week found a majority of voters still believe the country is on the wrong track, three-quarters give the Republican-led Congress negative marks and Democratic candidates are favored over Republicans by nine percentage points.

    "The Republicans should be blown out of the water, but it's not happening," said pollster John Zogby. "Democrats have been unable to close the deal."

    In the House, Democrats are slightly favored to win the open Republican House seats of former Rep. Tom DeLay of Texas and retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe of Arizona. The Cook Report lists 18 other Republican-held seats as tossups, while no Democratic seats are heavily endangered.

    Another seat surfaced as a possible target for Democratic takeover on Friday, when Republican Rep. Mark Foley resigned after reports he sent inappropriate e-mails to underage male congressional pages.

    In the Senate, where Democrats must knock off five incumbent Republicans to gain control, Republican Sens. Conrad Burns of Montana, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, George Allen of Virginia and Jim Talent of Missouri are all in tough re-election battles.

    Democrats also have a shot at the open Tennessee seat of retiring Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, but Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey has a struggle in a normally Democratic state.