Opinion

Cash for Trash

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by: Paul Krugman, The New York Times

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Is the $700 billion bailout a "cash-for-trash" deal? (Image: Marketoracle.co.uk)

    Some skeptics are calling Henry Paulson's $700 billion rescue plan for the U.S. financial system "cash for trash." Others are calling the proposed legislation the Authorization for Use of Financial Force, after the Authorization for Use of Military Force, the infamous bill that gave the Bush administration the green light to invade Iraq.

    There's justice in the gibes. Everyone agrees that something major must be done. But Mr. Paulson is demanding extraordinary power for himself - and for his successor - to deploy taxpayers' money on behalf of a plan that, as far as I can see, doesn't make sense.

    Some are saying that we should simply trust Mr. Paulson, because he's a smart guy who knows what he's doing. But that's only half true: he is a smart guy, but what, exactly, in the experience of the past year and a half - a period during which Mr. Paulson repeatedly declared the financial crisis "contained," and then offered a series of unsuccessful fixes - justifies the belief that he knows what he's doing? He's making it up as he goes along, just like the rest of us.

    So let's try to think this through for ourselves. I have a four-step view of the financial crisis:

    1. The bursting of the housing bubble has led to a surge in defaults and foreclosures, which in turn has led to a plunge in the prices of mortgage-backed securities - assets whose value ultimately comes from mortgage payments.

    2. These financial losses have left many financial institutions with too little capital - too few assets compared with their debt. This problem is especially severe because everyone took on so much debt during the bubble years.

    3. Because financial institutions have too little capital relative to their debt, they haven't been able or willing to provide the credit the economy needs.

    4. Financial institutions have been trying to pay down their debt by selling assets, including those mortgage-backed securities, but this drives asset prices down and makes their financial position even worse. This vicious circle is what some call the "paradox of deleveraging."

    The Paulson plan calls for the federal government to buy up $700 billion worth of troubled assets, mainly mortgage-backed securities. How does this resolve the crisis?

    Well, it might - might - break the vicious circle of deleveraging, step 4 in my capsule description. Even that isn't clear: the prices of many assets, not just those the Treasury proposes to buy, are under pressure. And even if the vicious circle is limited, the financial system will still be crippled by inadequate capital.

    Or rather, it will be crippled by inadequate capital unless the federal government hugely overpays for the assets it buys, giving financial firms - and their stockholders and executives - a giant windfall at taxpayer expense. Did I mention that I'm not happy with this plan?

    The logic of the crisis seems to call for an intervention, not at step 4, but at step 2: the financial system needs more capital. And if the government is going to provide capital to financial firms, it should get what people who provide capital are entitled to - a share in ownership, so that all the gains if the rescue plan works don't go to the people who made the mess in the first place.

    That's what happened in the savings and loan crisis: the feds took over ownership of the bad banks, not just their bad assets. It's also what happened with Fannie and Freddie. (And by the way, that rescue has done what it was supposed to. Mortgage interest rates have come down sharply since the federal takeover.)

    But Mr. Paulson insists that he wants a "clean" plan. "Clean," in this context, means a taxpayer-financed bailout with no strings attached - no quid pro quo on the part of those being bailed out. Why is that a good thing? Add to this the fact that Mr. Paulson is also demanding dictatorial authority, plus immunity from review "by any court of law or any administrative agency," and this adds up to an unacceptable proposal.

    I'm aware that Congress is under enormous pressure to agree to the Paulson plan in the next few days, with at most a few modifications that make it slightly less bad. Basically, after having spent a year and a half telling everyone that things were under control, the Bush administration says that the sky is falling, and that to save the world we have to do exactly what it says now now now.

    But I'd urge Congress to pause for a minute, take a deep breath, and try to seriously rework the structure of the plan, making it a plan that addresses the real problem. Don't let yourself be railroaded - if this plan goes through in anything like its current form, we'll all be very sorry in the not-too-distant future.

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Comments

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Smart men can be greedy,

Smart men can be greedy, ruthless, and sell the US down the river. Don't trust "rob peter to pay Paulson" He should be the first to go to jail.

Why does no-one mention the

Why does no-one mention the 500 pound elephant in the room? The cost of the Iraq-Afghanistan war? The $3trillion plus this has cost so far could have provided adequate healthcare and free education for every US citizen. Don't let Bush, Chenie, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Rice rob you again.

Hey guys, Why all the doom

Hey guys, Why all the doom and gloom? We're Americans aren't we? And in the Good Old USA isn't it said that"when the going gets tough the tough get going?"And that "tough times don't last forever but tough people do?". You see we have a philosophy to pull us through. And leaders who know what measures to take, like Bush against terror and now Paulson who is beginning to look like treasury's Dick Cheney more and more each day. Now that's a relief. Besides, I just did the numbers, and found that for as little as $1 a day for only slightly more than six years, we can pay off the cost of the bailout and be on our way. Whats one dollar a day? Nothing. So instead of wasting time fretting about things you cant ever understand-but Ol' Hank can, simply chant the happy mantra" Only pay one dollar a day to make the crisis go away." And before you know it Wall Street will be back to work-although you might not be, Sara Palin will be taking the oath of office-hurray,US troops will be preparing to invade Pakistan and the world champion Chicago Cubs will be sold to an Albanian white slavery ring. And all for the amazing low low price of yes one dollar a day.....

Please don't do this

Please don't do this Senators and Congresspeople !! This is probably the last great swindle of the Bushies who have squandered the lives of our children and the treasures of our nation to thieves and liars. PLEASE WAKE UP !!!

George W(reckingBall) Bush.

George W(reckingBall) Bush. The most successful president we have ever (been) had (by). What a haul! Not just millions, not even billions, but TRILLIONS of dollars, right down the rathole. (A rathole that leads right to Texas, I don't doubt.) Now, that's real crime, no penny ante stuff for those Texans, no siree! Hey, maybe with a bit of luck W will get appointed CEO of the Carlisle Group, along with his dad and John Major, and all those other war profiteers. Then his talent as the human wrecking ball could serve a good purpose.

Sure would be nice if

Sure would be nice if congresspeople -- and Obama -- got their minds around Krugman's case. And insisted on getting ownership of the assets, not just the bad debts. Paulson's idea that there should be no oversight on this funding scheme is clear evidence that he doesn't understand what's required -- and grounds for instant dismissal.

Give the money to home

Give the money to home owners!

We are acting like we have

We are acting like we have no power in this situation. It's just like any unauthorized charge on your credit card - don't pay it. Tax strike! They can't incarcerate all of us. Taxation without representation gave birth to this country. Now we have to take it back. This is bare fisted extortion. The politicians are only going to do the bare minimum to make it seem like they have protected the taxpayer from the WMD threat of the criminals on Wall Street and in the White House. How many of those $700B does Bush and Cheney get in their pocket? Is impeachment still off the table? I would like a billion dollars, how do I get one of those? I guess I am going to have work on my criminal profile. Clearly, crime pays. Obama has to come out loud and clear on this. We need the best, un-incorporated minds to take some time to figure this out. If Krugman doesn't understand it, how can a layperson possibly understand it. The lack of accountability should be setting off all sorts bells and sirens in everybody's head. Trust Bush Inc.? Have no doubt it - this is Disaster Capitalism and I am both shocked and awed. Under the bus we go? No, out into the streets. Tax strike!

This is the biggest scam

This is the biggest scam this world has ever seen..and all the Praise goes to this 'Government of Deceit' that we have been saddled with for the past several decades. The groundwork was laid a long while ago. Bush and his Coven of Thieves are now applying the finishing touches, designed to cover their tracks before leaving town. They have stolen the wealth, trust and prestige of our once great nation. . They have squandered the life's blood of our most precious children in contrived wars for profit. The whole caboodle should be hung in plain view of the world as a lesson to any others that might think to follow their example. Wall Street, and all that it has come to represent, should be cordoned off and allowed to choke on it's own greed. Add most of the Politicians to the mix, including the President and his 'next of kin, Cheney . If what they have caused is called Leadership, I think we will be better served by Governing Ourselves . If what they have done is Conservative, then lead me to the trough of Liberalism ...If there is a crumb left over after their gluttony.

Listen, folks, "Main Street"

Listen, folks, "Main Street" existed long before & without the "benefits" of Wall Street. Families, crops & townships grew up, survived & thrived without a centralized financial "dream team" to save us from ourselves. Don't be fooled by the hubris being spewed out by the elites - for they doth protest too much. Main Street America will be better off by doing "nothing" to bail out these poorly managed, highly corrupted businesses. Ask yourself - how is this going to help me? Do you really need more "easy credit?" That's all these crooks have to offer us - more debt; debt to bail them out, & more debt to build them up. If passed, this will be the first recognized volley of some not-too-distant rebellion. Which may not be such a bad thing after all.

Paul Krugman is one of the

Paul Krugman is one of the few commentators who is willing to speak truth to power. What I haven't heard in all this discussion about the 'bailout' is taxing stock transfers (a sales tax on buying stocks). Also, bringing the capital gains tax rate up to the earned income rate. When the income tax was first instituted in America, only unearned income was taxed. Workers didn't pay it, only landlords and investors. Seems we've managed to turn that completely around. Workers pay taxes, speculators skate. If we're going to protect them from the effects of their own greed, let's make them pay for it ahead of time, by taxing them at the source - when they buy the stocks and when they take their profits.

Here's what I predict -- the

Here's what I predict -- the Fed will create a bunch of money, pay the $700Bn and the value of the US dollar will drop and be even less valuable. Don't they know that they're making money from nothing? If you flood the market with more money, all you're doing is making the money that was there less valuable... Look for skyrocketing oil prices and invest in gold, everyone.

Hey, I like the sheriff

Hey, I like the sheriff idea. Sounds like the germ of an Obama ad to me. A little Hang 'em High, a little Seven Samurai as the Obama Cabinet comes to town to kick the asses of the thieves who keep coming back to steal the Villagers' crops year after year. Too bad Leone and Kurosawa are dead! Done right, that could be very, very cool.

I like it when Krugman gets

I like it when Krugman gets to be an economist and a columnist at the same time. I completely agree that, if we must do this, it should be done thoughtfully, not hastily. I wouldn't trust this administration to order a pizza, much less with $700,000,000,000 with no strings. Please do not rush, as the deal stinks more and more with practically every passing hour. Yesterday, I read where we're opening this up to foreign banks as well? Might that have anything to do with Phil Gramm's position as a REGISTERED LOBBIEST for the giant Swiss bank UBS? (http://www.slate.com/id/2194933/) If this administration was a little more honest and a little less DESPICABLE maybe I would be naive enough to believe their lies and cut them some slack. But not today. There should be strings. There should be lots and lots of strings. At the end of the day, I wouldn't be surprised if the longer it takes, the better off we all will be.

If we have $700 B to spare,

If we have $700 B to spare, how about putting it into decent health care and decent jobs for the poor suckers who are defaulting on these loans? Let's cure the problems that are causing the defaults. Or do a reverse tax so they can pay their loans. I'm no Pollyanna -- I lost everything ten years ago in Washington trying to prevent exactly what's happening now. We knew it was coming, said so and got sqashed for our trouble. As far as I can tell, the "rescuers" are the same ones who robbed us the last time around. And I suspect that the bail-outs are partly intended to hide the evidence of massive fraud in the mortgage system. And why haven't we heard a peep about Ginnie Mae and FHA, the two government housing agencies? Are there massive claims against VA, FHA, Ginnie Mae and Dept of Ag (rural housing) for defaults on their insured loans? Federal control is hopeless: the only way to instill integrity in the system is to do it one town at a time, where people know and trust each other. Billion-dollar fixes result in losses of billions of dollars. You can't hide billions on a census block basis. "Too big to fail" is too big to exist for my money.

Since 2001, we have seen the

Since 2001, we have seen the largest transfer of public wealth into private hands in the history of the world. The United States Treasury has been looted by robber barons and if you look there now you will find and IOU made out to China. Billions and billions of dollars have been transfered to companies like Haliburton and subsidiaries, Blackwater International etc. This looks like the biggest grand larceny in the history of national economics. The entire US economy has fallen off the back of a truck. Now as the reality of this comes home, with the current crisis on Wall St, it is as tho the guys who made off with all these billions of taxpayer dollars, comes to us and says, "just give us a check for 700 billion and we'll fix the mess we made. In fact, you need to give that check to one man right away -RIGHT AWAY before its TOO LATE!" Its like one of those Nigerian e-mail scams! Whats needed here is some law and order. Its time for the Sheriff to come to town and clean up this madness. (Lets just make sure we have an honest Sheriff and not a hired mercenary.) ANd the ones who helped themselves to the taxpayer's money ought to be on planks for this.