Carrboro, North Carolina - This is proving to be a defining year for North Carolina politics. For the first time in 20 years, Democrats here got to vote in a meaningful presidential primary and, as the post-mortems note, helped determine the nominee. Barack Obama's victory exceeded predictions and, combined with Hillary Clinton's narrow win in Indiana the same night, made his nomination inevitable.

    Now, it looks like the state will actually get serious attention in the general election. Obama kicked off his general election campaign with an event in Raleigh, indicating that the Democrats will put the state in play this November. For the first time since 1992, we will see the presidential campaigns up close.

    What's changed in the past 16 years? A lot.

    For starters, a trend that began 40 years ago appears to have ended, or at least slowed dramatically. From 1966 to 1996, Democratic registration dropped from 82 percent to 55 percent while Republican registration increased from 18 percent to 34 percent. At the same time, unaffiliated voters became a force, gaining 11 percent of the registered voters.

    For the next 10 years, Republican registration was relatively stagnant, holding at 34 percent of the electorate. Democrats, though, continued to lose registrants to unaffiliated voters who, by 2007, made up 20 percent of the electorate.

    Republican electoral strength grew. After few victories during the first 70 years of the 20th century, the GOP has held one U.S. Senate seat continually since 1972 and has held the other for half of the time since 1976. Republican gains came when droves of Reagan Democrats crossed party lines in federal elections, and from the growing number of unaffiliated voters, many of them former conservative Democrats who disagreed with national party policies.

    Since the 1960s, Democratic registration in North Carolina has dropped every year - until now. From April 2007 until earlier this month, Democratic registration held steady at 45 percent, and even increased slightly. Meanwhile, unaffiliated voters increased to 21 percent, stealing a bit from the Republicans, whose share dipped from 34 percent to 33 percent.

    In terms of real numbers, Democrats have added 145,000 voters to their rolls while Republicans added 30,000. An additional 129,500 people registered as unaffiliated.

    While the figures are somewhat skewed by the voter registration drives this spring, they may also signal that the transition from a one-party state is complete and is finally reflected in registration numbers. In short, Democrats are far more likely to vote for Democrats and Republicans for Republicans, while unaffiliated voters are the targets of both parties.

    If so, Democrats now have a much wider get-out-the-vote target than in the past. Traditionally, the party has focused its voter drive efforts on minorities and a few liberal enclaves. Now it can focus on anyone who is registered as Democrat. In addition, "persuasion resources" such as television and radio can focus on the narrower group of unaffiliated voters instead of trying to hold registered Democrats in line.

    The 2006 election offered additional evidence that the state's voting habits have changed. In congressional contests, more voters across North Carolina voted for a Democrat than for a Republican for the first time in a generation. In addition, Democrats picked up one congressional district when Heath Shuler defeated Rep. Charles Taylor. The party also came within 350 votes of capturing another when Larry Kissell almost upset Republican Rep. Robin Hayes.

    The unaffiliated voters who now make up the vast majority of swing voters are no longer disaffected Democrats. They are predominantly younger suburban implants. Many of these voters arrived in the state voting Republican but found that they have more in common with the moderate Democrats who dominate state politics than with the social conservatives who have led the state Republican Party.

    To add to the changing demographics, North Carolina has one of the fastest-growing Hispanic populations in the country. Although only 50,000 are currently registered to vote, they make up over 4 percent of the population. Eventually they may be a powerful voting bloc, and current Republican policies are driving them into Democratic ranks.

    As chair of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean invested in a controversial 50-state strategy that he said would expand the electoral map. Barack Obama is now going to test it, and North Carolina will be front and center.

    Whether Obama can win our state is yet to be seen, but with the current trends, spending the money to find out is a good idea, especially as an investment in the future. The state is one of the fastest-growing in the nation, and over the next few decades Electoral College strength will move South and West. North Carolina is now part of the new battleground.

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    Thomas Mills is president of the Democratic consulting firm Thomas Mills Communications. In 2004, he served as a direct-mail consultant to the Kerry-Edwards campaign.