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A Voter Rebuke for Bush, the War and the Right    [

    Democrats Make Gains as President Suffers Backlash
    By Rupert Cornwell
    The Independent UK

    Wednesday 08 November 2006

    Democrats took a clear advantage in early results from America's bitterly contested congressional midterm elections, gaining two Senate seats and making strides in the House of Representatives, where the Bush White House was last night braced for a loss of the 12-year-old Republican majority.

    In the first Democrat gain of the evening, Brad Ellsworth won Indiana's Republican-held 8th congressional district. A Democrat was also narrowly ahead in Kentucky's closely watched 3rd district, where a win would put the party firmly on track to pick up the 15 seats needed to win back the House.

    The fierce Virginia Senate contest between incumbent Republican George Allen and challenger Jim Webb was too close to call, cable networks said, as were other make-or-break Senate races in Tennessee and Missouri. But Democrats picked up seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News, while Bob Menendez was projected to win in New Jersey, where Republicans had hoped for an upset. "But it's going to be a long night," a smiling Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign committee said.

    In Vermont, Bernie Sanders, a self-declared socialist, as expected won the open Senate seat. In West Virginia, 88-year-old Democrat Robert Byrd, already the longest-serving Senator in history, won a record ninth six-year term. In scandal-plagued Ohio, Democrat Rod Strickland swept to victory in the governor's race.

    A predicted 80 million Americans, some 40 per cent of eligible voters, went to the polls. For Democrats, "change" was the watchword as they sought to cash in on public disgruntlement with President Bush and his policies, and end the virtually unbroken Republican grip on Congress since 1994. Fuelling their challenge were a powerful anti-incumbent mood, scandals in Washington, and ever-growing disapproval of the war in Iraq - an issue for two-thirds of voters, exit polls showed.

    "I voted for change, except for me," the former first lady Hillary Clinton said, before sweeping to re-election in her New York Senate race. Ms Clinton is the Democratic frontrunner in the 2008 race for the White House that will start almost before the ink has dried on yesterday's results.

    "Do your duty, cast your ballot and let your voice be heard," President Bush exhorted for his part, after voting at dawn in Crawford, Texas, near his ranch. Immediately afterwards Mr Bush flew back to Washington, to await the results of an election that was largely a referendum on his presidency.

    Indications were that in the east, home to many of the most fiercely contested House and Senate seats, Americans took his advice. Turn-out was brisk in the battleground state of Ohio and at near record levels in Virginia. Queues were long at voting stations in Maryland, where there were close contests for the Republican-held governorship and the vacant Senate seat.

    In several states - including Ohio and Indiana, home to half a dozen bellwether House races - problems arose early on as officials and voters struggled to adapt to new electronic balloting equipment. This was despite the Justice Department sending a record 850 poll watchers to 69 cities and counties to safeguard against fraud, discrimination or system malfunctions, especially in close races. In one Indiana county, in Denver, Colorado, and parts of Cleveland, Ohio, courts ordered polling stations to be kept open for an extra two hours because of the delays.

    Another complication was bad weather across parts of the midwest and south-east. Some Democratic strategists feared this could benefit Republicans, given the latter's superior ability to get out the vote.

    Some polls had suggested Republicans had gained ground in the closing stages of the campaign. Even so, Democrats were widely expected to capture the 15 seats needed in the House, and perhaps five or 10 beyond that.

    But Republicans were more confident of hanging on to the Senate, albeit by a reduced margin. To prevail, Democrats had to win six out of seven vulnerable Republican seats, including Virginia, and lose none they currently hold, including those in New Jersey and Maryland.

    All 435 seats in the House were at stake, along with 33 in the 100-member Senate, and 36 of the 50 governorships. Of these latter, Democrats are forecast to capture an additional six, among them New York, Ohio and Massachusetts. Many states were also voting on ballot initiatives including bans on gay marriage, stem-cell research and abortion.

    Even a partial Democratic victory would transform the landscape in Washington. "Congress will play a much more active role, and possibly in conflict with the President," said David Gergen, a bipartisan White House adviser. "And even if the Democrats don't win, Republicans will be tougher with their own President on Iraq."

    The real question therefore is whether Mr Bush will change his approach. In the days before the vote, he showed scant sign of it. "The Democrat philosophy is this: If it breathes, tax it, and if it stops breathing, find its children and tax them," Mr Bush told a rally in Pensacola, Florida.

    He also declared that, come what may, the Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, lightning rod for Republican as well as Democratic criticism of the conduct of the war, would stay at the Pentagon until his second term ends in January 2009. Vice-President Dick Cheney - who left for a hunting trip after casting his vote in his home state of Wyoming - has insisted that, whatever the outcome, the elections would not affect the administration's Iraq policy.

    Quietly though, the White House may be preparing the ground for a shift. The cue could be the upcoming recommendations from the bipartisan Iraq Study Group headed by the former secretary of state James Baker. But a Democrat capture of the House and/or Senate might accelerate that process.

    He will also have to co-operate on the domestic front, if Congress is to take action on issues like immigration, education and the economy.

    One certainty is that Democratic controlled committees would rigorously oversee and investigate the administration - a constitutional duty of Congress largely neglected by the previous Republican majority in the House.

    But Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House who would become Speaker if the Democrats win, has ruled out moves to impeach Mr Bush.

    Battlegrounds

• In Vermont, political independent Bernie Sanders, a Socialist who will side with the Democrats, won the Senate seat now held by another independent, Senator James Jeffords, who is retiring.
  
  
• In Massachusetts Deval Patrick is elected first African American Governor. He is only the second elected governor of any US state. Senator Ted Kennedy easily kept his seat in the state.
  
  
• In Ohio, the first Democrat Governor is elected since 1986. Ted Strickland beat Republican Ken Blackwell.
  
  
• In Florida, Republican Katherine Harris was defeated by Democratic Senator Bill Nelson. She came to attention as Florida Secretary of State, when she certified George Bush as the Florida winner in the deadlocked presidential race with the Democrat Al Gore in 2000.
  
  
• In Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey defeated incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum - number three Republican in the Senate.
  
  
• In Louisville, Kentucky, a poll worker was arrested and charged with assault for allegedly choking a voter. The dispute started over the marking of the ballot paper.
  
  
• In Ohio, Democrat's Sherrod Brown, defeated incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine.
  
  
• New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez held his Senate seat despite a strong challenge from Thomas Kean Jr, son of a popular former governor.
  
  
• Chelsea Clinton, daughter of Bill, was turned away from a Manhattan polling station - her name was not on the voter list.
  
  
• In Ohio, a federal judge in Cleveland ordered 16 polling stations to stay open 90 minutes after polls closed because of delays caused by voting machine problems.

    What the Voters Think

    Lynn Sturgis, 48

    Profession: Teacher's aide from Santa Monica, California

    Voted: Democrat

    "The most important issue in this election is to get Democrats back in control in this state and in the country. The things I care about most are women's rights - reproductive rights - which are under threat, along with gay rights and other minority protections. Iraq's important but I'm not sure that's what we're voting on in this election."

    Michael Gay, 55

    Profession: Sheet metal worker, Hudson, New York

    Voted: Republican

    "I am not that crazy about the war in Iraq and I think we should get out but I voted Republican because I don't like all the mud-slinging that's been going on. I am not completely happy with Bush's foreign policy but I don't really see that electing a bunch of people from the other side of the aisle is going to do it."

    Cary Barnett, 48

    Profession: Mother of two children, Chevy Chase, Maryland

    Voted: Republican

    "There is not a single issue that stood out. They are all important - national security, the economy, education. I normally vote Republican but not to the exclusion of others. Certainly the war in Iraq is a big matter but it's not the only issue. It's huge but there are other issues."

    John Long, 66

    Profession: Semi-retired carpenter and cabinet-maker, Hudson, New York

    Voted: Democrat

    "The politicians are out of touch with the population. All of them are. The American constitution is meant to be of the people and by the people but no one is representing us really. These people are not of the people. The political climate the way it is now, well I really think it demands a big change in Washington."

    David Evans, 56

    Profession: Director of engineers' professional association, Chevy Chase, Maryland

    Voted: Democrat and Republican

    "I voted for people from both parties. For the main positions, I voted Republican, which means the Senate and Governor. My voting priorities are related to fiscal policy. And more reining in of government - fewer laws and less interference with the way you lead your life."

    Tisha Mulligan, 58

    Profession: Co-owner of Tanzy's tea shop in Hudson, New York

    Voted: Democrat

    "I feel more passionate about this election than I have for a long time. I just can't support any Bush politics. I don't want people in Iraq. I don't want Donald Rumsfeld any more. I don't want to support Halliburton. Do you want me to go on? I don't like big business government and also I am pro-choice on abortion rights."

    Steven Meltzer, 56

    Profession: Writer, Chevy Chase, Maryland

    Voted: Democrat and Republican

    "I voted Democrat for every position other than Governor. The main factor for me is the general corruption of the Republican party. This is the big umbrella from which all the other issues hang - the war in Iraq, spe nding, health care. President Bush has had a huge impact on my decision. He has a monochrome view of the world and an overbearing, bullying manner."

    Sally Troyer, 72

    Profession: Retired art dealer, Chevy Chase, Maryland.

    Voted: Democrat

    "I'm so angry with the Republicans at the moment. It's everything the Republicans have done. We live in the area and we know the corruption level in the government. I think the war in Iraq is a big thing - also the budget deficit is another big issue. The corruption, the expenses for rebuilding Iraq that have gone to President Bush's buddies - it's just outrageous."

    Eddie Barnett, 47

    Profession: Registered nurse in Hudson, New York

    Voted: Democrat

    "This little go-round of elections is more important than ever because of the war in Iraq. I think Iraq is the biggest issue for me, but so is giving our money back to the big corporations - giving back our money to the rich. Exxon Mobil has made record profits while us ordinary folk are paying more for gas and heating oil."

    Alex Novakovich, 54

    Profession: Stay-at-home mother and civic volunteer, in Santa Monica, California,

    Voted: Democrat

    "We need to ring the bell loud and clear across the country, and get rid of this right-wing Christian, God-is-with-the-Republicans attitude that seems to have swept America. I'm so sick of it. If we have a Democratic Senate and House that don't rubber-stamp everything Bush does, it will help turn this Republican tide."

 

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    Go to Original

    A Voter Rebuke for Bush, the War and the Right
    By Peter Baker and Jim VandeHei
    The Washington Post

    Wednesday 08 November 2006

    The political pendulum in American politics swung away from the right yesterday, putting an end to the 12-year Republican Revolution on Capitol Hill and delivering a sharp rebuke of President Bush and the Iraq war.

    The GOP reign in the House that began with Newt Gingrich in a burst of vision and confrontation in 1994 came crashing down amid voter disaffection with congressional corruption. The collapse of one-party rule in Washington will transform Bush's final two years in office and challenge Democrats to make the leap from angry opposition to partners in power.

    How far the balance shifts to the left remains to be seen. The passion of the antiwar movement helped propel party activists in this election year, and the House leadership under the likely new speaker, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), hails from the party's liberal wing. But the Democrats' victory was built on the back of more centrist candidates seizing Republican-leaning districts, and Pelosi emphasized that she will try to lead without becoming the ideological mirror of Gingrich.

    "We have learned from watching the Republicans - they would not allow moderates a voice in their party," Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) said in an interview as he waited to see if Democrats would take control of the upper chamber as well. "We must work from the middle."

    The Democrats' return to power in at least one house and gains in the other mean Bush will almost certainly face powerful pressure to reassess his Iraq policy - not just from Democrats but from within his own party. Even many Republicans hanging on last night emerged from a bruising election restive and looking for a fresh direction.

    By the end of the campaign, Republicans were airing ads distancing themselves from Bush's wartime leadership, and the president himself abandoned the phrase "stay the course." The White House is placing hope on a study group headed by former secretary of state James A. Baker III, a longtime Bush family intimate, to offer a new approach to the war. Yet Vice President Cheney laid down a marker last week, saying "it doesn't matter" if the war is unpopular and vowing to continue "full speed ahead."

    During a victory speech last night, Pelosi made clear that would not suffice: "We cannot continue down this catastrophic path. And so we say to the president, 'Mr. President, we need a new direction in Iraq. Let us work together to find a solution to the war in Iraq.'"

    The results represented the first defeat at the polls for Bush politics since he came to power after the 2000 presidential election ended with a recount battle. In back-to-back elections after that, he defied conventional wisdom to pull out victories, tapping into a strain of anxiety that has flavored the national electorate since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

    Bush and senior adviser Karl Rove tried to replicate that strategy this fall, hoping to keep the election from becoming a referendum on the president's leadership and instead make it a choice between two parties with different governing philosophies. "One thing that's true is this will have been a referendum election," said Gary Jacobson, a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego.

    Overall, 59 percent of voters surveyed in a news media consortium series of exit polls yesterday expressed dissatisfaction or anger with the Bush administration; 36 percent said they cast their vote to express opposition to Bush, compared with 22 percent who were voting to support him. Fifty-six percent of voters support withdrawing some or all U.S. troops from Iraq, which will embolden Democrats pushing for a pullout.

    Corruption proved to be a more potent issue than it had appeared even weeks ago. After 12 years in control, the Republicans who took power with Gingrich promising to sweep out a calcified and ethically bankrupt Democratic leadership found themselves perceived as becoming what they had tried to expunge. Exit polls found 41 percent of voters rated corruption "extremely important" to their decision.

    "What you saw was the voters speak out very loudly on the way Congress conducted itself," said Rep. Eric I. Cantor (R-Va.). "We really have to take stock of where we are and we have to go about doing things different." Cantor said this includes a renewed emphasis on fiscal discipline and ethics reform.

    "Republicans should have been more diligent in locating instances of individual corruption and handled those appropriately," said former representative Vin Weber (R-Minn.), an adviser to GOP leaders and the White House. "We did not need to lose all those seats."

    The loss provoked the start of what could be a painful period of self-examination among Republicans eager to find answers, or place blame. With moderates in the Northeast falling, the Republican conference will grow more conservative. Some said they expect Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (Ill.) to step aside as party leader after the fallout from the page scandal and a new younger generation vowing to return to the promise and principles of the Gingrich revolution hopes to take the reins. Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), one of several younger conservatives who has lashed out at his party's veering from core fiscal and social principles, is planning to run for leadership.

    "It's not an affirmation of a Democratic agenda; I think that's clear, because they didn't offer one," said John Weaver, a strategist for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). "It's about how we as Republicans set aside our principles to try to stay in power. We decided to try to spend money like Democrats, we decided not to reform or tackle big issues. And at the end of the day, the American voters said, 'Enough is enough.'"

    The complexion of the Democratic presence in Congress will change as well. Party politics will be shaped by the resurgence of "Blue Dog" Democrats, who come mainly from the South and from rural districts in the Midwest and often vote like Republicans. Top Democrats such as Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) see these middle-of-the-road lawmakers as the future of the party in a nation that leans slightly right of center.

    In private talks before the election, Emanuel and other top Democrats told their members they cannot allow the party's liberal wing to dominate the agenda next year. Democrats will hold 30 or 35 seats that went for Bush in the past, meaning that Democratic candidates such as Brad Ellsworth in rural Indiana are likely to face competitive races again in 2008. Still, their interests are likely to collide with those of veteran liberals such as Reps. Henry A. Waxman (Calif.) and John Conyers Jr., (Mich.), who will chair committees.

    With that in mind, there is a chance the 110th Congress could begin on a bipartisan note. Democrats have vowed to move quickly to tighten ethics laws and require offsets for new spending - two plans many Republicans will probably support in light of yesterday's results. Democrats also plan to push next year to raise the minimum wage, increase spending for cargo inspection at ports and reduce rates on student loans, all issues likely to draw some GOP support.

    Partisan standoffs are likely over the war and any Democratic efforts to repeal Bush's tax cuts for upper-income America. In both cases, Democratic divisions could complicate Pelosi's plans. Democrats largely avoided detailed positions on a new Iraq strategy, but votes over spending for the military and the Iraq operation will force them to take a position.

    At the center of all this will be Bush, who enters the final phase of his presidency with an opposition House and the sting of a campaign in which he was deemed to be an albatross. Bush arrived at Election Day with a lower approval rating than any other president in a midterm since Harry S. Truman in 1946. Aides took some consolation that the losses approximated the average for the sixth year of a two-term presidency.

    For weeks, the White House maintained it was doing no contingency planning in case of Democratic gains. But Bush advisers are mapping out an agenda for his final two years that would include legislation that might win bipartisan support, such as extending and expanding the No Child Left Behind education program and creating a guest-worker program for illegal immigrants. Other priorities, such as adding investment accounts to Social Security, would seem virtually impossible in a Democratic House.

    As the election approached, the White House said it would not trim its sails no matter who won. But as they absorbed the losses last night, Bush aides said he will return to his style of governance in Texas, when he forged a strong working relationship with a legislature led by conservative Democrats. "Obviously, we are disappointed with what happened in the House," said White House counselor Dan Bartlett. Bush, he added, will reach out to Democrats at a news conference today. "He will do his part."