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New Terrorism National Intelligence Estimate Released    [

    Experts: Unclassified Report "Pure Pablum," Hides Truth
    By Brian Ross
    ABC News

    Tuesday 17 July 2007

    Intelligence analysts and the former White House counterterror official describe as "pure pablum" the unclassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate released today on terror threats to the United States.

    "Nothing in here is going to surprise anybody who's been following this," said one senior U.S. intelligence official.

    "It's more about what it doesn't say than what it does say," says Richard Clarke, the former White House official who is now an ABC News consultant.

    "What is left out of the version released publicly is the explicit statement that al Qaeda is back and has operations underway," Clarke says.

    The 2006 version of the National Intelligence Estimate claimed U.S. efforts had "seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa'ida and disrupted its operations."

    "That's no longer the case in 2007, and you have to read between the lines to understand how we have lost ground," Clarke says.

    The current White House counterterrorism official, Fran Townsend, the assistant to the president for homeland security, told reporters today, "Al Qaeda is weaker today than if we had not taken strong action against them."

    She said she would not address still-classified aspects of the intelligence estimate that al Qaeda had regained strength at levels not seen since before the 9/ll attacks.

    The Blotter on ABCNews.com reported last week that senior law enforcement and intelligence officials had "multiple and credible" reports that an al Qaeda terror cell may be on its way to the United States or could already be in the country.

    Today's report also concludes that "al-Qa'ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI)."

    "Given that there was no al Qaeda in Iraq until we invaded there," says Clarke, "it's hard not to draw the conclusion that going to Iraq has created a further threat to the United States."

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    Read the Declassified National Intelligence Estimate.

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    New Terrorism National Intelligence Estimate Released
    ThinkProgress.org

    Tuesday 17 July 2007

    The key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate have been released. Read them HERE. Below, some important findings:

    Al Qaeda has "regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability":

    Al-Qa'ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership.

    Iraq has strengthened al Qaeda, which will seek to "leverage the contacts and capabilities" gained in the war:

    Of note, we assess that al-Qa'ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland.

    Al Qaeda's association with "al Qaeda in Iraq" (AQI) helps to "energize the broader Sunni extremist community" and "recruit and indoctrinate operatives":

    In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa'ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attacks.