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Pakistani Sets Emergency Rule, Defying the US    [

    Straying Partner Leaves White House in a Lurch
    By Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Helene Cooper
    The New York Times

    Sunday 04 November 2007

    Washington - For more than five months the United States has been trying to orchestrate a political transition in Pakistan that would manage to somehow keep Gen. Pervez Musharraf in power without making a mockery of President Bush's promotion of democracy in the Muslim world.

    On Saturday, those carefully laid plans fell apart spectacularly. Now the White House is stuck in wait-and-see mode, with limited options and a lack of clarity about the way forward.

    General Musharraf's move to seize emergency powers and abandon the Constitution left Bush administration officials close to their nightmare: an American-backed military dictator who is risking civil instability in a country with nuclear weapons and an increasingly alienated public.

    Mr. Bush entered a delicate dance with Pakistan immediately after the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, when General Musharraf pledged his cooperation in the fight against Al Qaeda, whose top leaders, including Osama bin Laden, are believed to be hiding out in the mountainous border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    The United States has given Pakistan more than $10 billion in aid, mostly to the military, since 2001. Now, if the state of emergency drags on, the administration will be faced with the difficult decision of whether to cut off that aid and risk undermining Pakistan's efforts to pursue terrorists - a move the White House believes could endanger the security of the United States.

    Adm. William J. Fallon, the senior American military commander in the Middle East, told General Musharraf and his top generals in Islamabad on Friday that he would put that aid at risk if he seized emergency powers.

    But after the declaration on Saturday, there was no immediate action by the administration to accompany the tough talk, as officials monitored developments in Pakistan. Inside the White House the hope is that the state of emergency will be short-lived and that General Musharraf will fulfill his promise to abandon his post as Army chief of staff and hold elections by Jan. 15.

    Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, traveling in the Middle East, called Mr. Musharraf's move "highly regrettable," while her spokesman, Sean D. McCormack, said the United States was "deeply disturbed."

    Teresita Schaffer, an expert on Pakistan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, called General Musharraf's action "a big embarrassment" for the administration. But she said there was not much the United States could do.

    "There's going to be a lot of visible wringing of hands, and urging Musharraf to declare his intentions," she said. "But I don't really see any alternative to continuing to work with him. They can't just decide they're going to blow off the whole country of Pakistan, because it sits right next to Afghanistan, where there are some 26,000 U.S. and NATO troops."

    The hand-wringing began even before General Musharraf imposed military rule. Ms. Rice said she has had several conversations with General Musharraf in the past few weeks - the last one two days ago - in which she appealed to him not to declare emergency powers. The American ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W. Patterson, had also been exhorting General Musharraf and his top deputies against making that step, Ms. Rice said.

    "We were clear that we did not support it," Ms. Rice said, speaking to reporters aboard a flight from Istanbul to Israel, where she is traveling for regional talks. "We were clear that we didn't support it because it would take Pakistan away from the path of democratic rule."

    But even as she criticized General Musharraf's power grab, Ms. Rice stopped short of outright condemnation of General Musharraf himself, even going so far as to credit him for doing "a lot" - in the past - toward preparing Pakistan for what she called a "path to democratic rule."

    That seeming contradiction highlights the quandary in which the Bush administration now finds itself.

    There has long been a deep fear within the administration, particularly among intelligence officials, that an imperfect General Musharraf is better for American interests than an unknown in a volatile country that is central to the administration's fight against terrorism. In recent months the White House had been hoping that a power-sharing alliance between General Musharraf and Pakistan's former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, would help the general cling to power while putting a democratic face on his regime.

    Now, experts predict that the United States will be watching Pakistan closely in the coming days to see how hard General Musharraf cracks down on his opponents - and whether opposition political leaders, journalists and scholars are imprisoned. Much of the attention will be on Ms. Bhutto, who strongly condemned the emergency declaration and quickly cut short a visit to Dubai to return to Pakistan during the crisis.

    Officials will be watching to see whether Pakistan's fractured opposition, including Ms. Bhutto and her political party can unite and pose a serious challenge to General Musharraf. They will also be watching the reaction of the military, which has been demoralized by a spate of suicide bombings against military targets.

    Whatever happens, experts say that General Musharraf's decision was not good news for the Bush administration Even if Pakistan does get back on the path to democracy, Saturday's action will likely tarnish the Pakistani leader, as well as the legitimacy of any election organized by his government.

    Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the current situation could easily plunge Pakistan into chaos, leading to an increase in violence by Islamic fundamentalists or provoking demonstrations by opposition political parties.

    "You could have chaos in the street, or a situation where it would be suicidal for Bhutto to try to participate in the process," he said, adding, "Either of those scenarios puts the U.S. in a very difficult position."

    Go to Original

    Pakistani Sets Emergency Rule, Defying the US
    By David Rohde
    The New York Times

    Sunday 04 November 2007

This article was reported by David Rohde, Jane Perlez and Salman Masood, and was written by Mr. Rohde.

    Islamabad, Pakistan - The Pakistani leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, declared a state of emergency on Saturday night, suspending the country's Constitution, firing the chief justice of the Supreme Court and filling the streets of this capital city with police officers.

    The move appeared to be an effort by General Musharraf to reassert his fading power in the face of growing opposition from the country's Supreme Court, political parties and hard-line Islamists. Pakistan's Supreme Court had been expected to rule within days on the legality of General Musharraf's re-election last month as the country's president.

    The emergency act, which analysts and opposition leaders said was more a declaration of martial law, also boldly defied the Bush administration, which had repeatedly urged General Musharraf to avoid such a path and instead move toward democracy. Washington has generously backed the general, sending him more than $10 billion in aid since 2001, mostly for the military. Now the administration finds itself in the bind of having to publicly castigate the man it has described as one of its closest allies in fighting terrorism.

    In blunt and brief comments on Saturday, American officials condemned General Musharraf's move. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded a "quick return to constitutional law." And in Washington, the White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, said, "This action is very disappointing," and he called on General Musharraf to honor his earlier pledge to resign as army commander and hold nationwide elections before Jan. 15.

    In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the main opposition leader, returned early from a visit in Dubai, setting up the possibility that she and her party, as well as other opposition groups like the powerful lawyers' body here, could organize demonstrations against the president. After landing in Karachi, she mocked General Musharraf and accused him of using the specter of terrorism to prolong his hold on power. "This is not emergency," she said. "This is martial law."

    After a day of rumors in the Pakistani news media than an emergency declaration would come, the first proof came just after 5 p.m., when independent and international television news stations abruptly went blank in Islamabad and other major cities. Soon after, dozens of police officers surrounded the Supreme Court building, with some justices still inside.

    Under the emergency declaration, the justices were ordered to take an oath to abide by a "provisional constitutional order" that replaces the country's existing Constitution. Those who failed to do so would be dismissed.

    Seven of the court's 11 justices gathered inside the court rejected the order, according to an aide to Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Issuing their own legal order, the justices called General Musharraf's declaration unlawful and urged military officials to not abide by it.

    By 9 p.m., Chief Justice Chaudhry and the other justices had gone to their homes, which were surrounded by police officers. The police blocked journalists from entering the area, disconnected telephone lines and jammed cellphones in the area.

    Several hours later, the state-run news media reported that three justices generally seen as supporting General Musharraf had taken an oath to uphold the emergency measure. And it was announced that Mr. Chaudhry had been replaced by a pro-government member of the Supreme Court bench, Abdul Hamid Doger, as chief justice.

    Just after midnight, General Musharraf appeared on state-run television. In a 45-minute speech, he said he had declared the emergency to limit terrorist attacks and "preserve the democratic transition that I initiated eight years back."

    He gave no firm date for nationwide elections that had been scheduled for January and said his current Parliament, which he dominates, would remain in place. He did not say how long the state of emergency would be maintained.

    The general, dressed in civilian clothes, quoted Lincoln, citing the former president's suspension of some rights during the American Civil War as justification for his own state of emergency.

    He accused the country's Supreme Court of releasing 61 men who he said were under investigation for terrorist activities. "Judicial activism," he said, had demoralized the security forces, hurt the fight against terrorism and slowed the spread of democracy. "Obstacles are being created in the way of democratic process," he said, "I think for vested, personal interests, against the interest of the country."

    Wamiq Zuberi, director of Aaj TV, one of the independent stations blacked out on Saturday, said the government had also issued two new orders sharply limiting news coverage.

    The orders prohibit coverage that "brings into ridicule or disrepute" General Musharraf and other officials, he said. They also ban the publication of statements from terrorist groups, as well as photographs of suicide bombers or their victims. Violators face up to three years in prison.

    Opposition leaders condemned the emergency declaration. Aitzaz Ahsan, a prominent lawyer who led protests against General Musharraf this spring, was detained by the police after saying that opposition groups would announce a schedule of nationwide strikes and protests on Monday.

    Before being detained, he accused General Musharraf of "criminal flouting of the Constitution," adding, "The people and the lawyers cannot be suspended."

    Reuters reported that other opposition leaders were detained. Among them were Imran Khan, an opposition politician and former cricket star who was placed under house arrest, and Javed Hashmi, a leader of the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's party.

    Pakistani analysts said the emergency order was, in effect, a declaration of martial law because there were no constitutional provisions allowing such an order.

    "This is the imposition of real military rule, because there is no Constitution," said Hasan-Askari Rizvi, an expert on Pakistani military affairs.

    General Musharraf resorted to military power to gain the presidency in October 1999 when he staged a bloodless coup, and Mr. Rizvi said this was a return to those measures. "This is the first time Musharraf has brought in military rule to sustain himself in power," he said. "He felt threatened by the Supreme Court."

    Mr. Chaudhry, the former chief justice, has been the focal point of the opposition to General Musharraf since the president fired him in March. With support from lawyers, judges and a wide public following, Mr. Chaudhry led a street-style political campaign against his summary firing that helped fuel popular sentiment against General Musharraf.

    The Supreme Court reinstated Mr. Chaudhry this summer, and in September it ruled in favor of General Musharraf, saying he could run for re-election while still in uniform.

    Late Saturday evening, Islamabad and other major cities were quiet. But analysts said that General Musharraf's fate would play out on Pakistan's streets over the next three to four days.

    If Ms. Bhutto's party and other opposition groups are able to mount nationwide street protests, the general could be forced from power. In the past, Pakistan's army has ousted military leaders when they felt their actions were damaging to the army as an institution.

    "If there are street agitations and a lot of people are arrested, he'll have problems," Mr. Rizvi said.

    At the same time, Ms. Bhutto's political career is at stake as well, Mr. Rizvi said. If she fails to lead protests, she will lose legitimacy as an opposition leader, he said. And if she tries and produces a paltry turnout, she could find herself in jail or exile.

    Ms. Bhutto returned to Pakistan on Oct. 18 for the first time in eight years under a plan that the Bush administration had hoped would bring a democratic sheen to the country even as it continued under the rule of General Musharraf. That plan now lies in tatters.