Zarqawi Has Won
    Le Monde | Editorial

    Friday 09 June 2006

    The elimination of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, killed June 7 in a US Air Force raid near Baghdad, is a victory for the United States, engaged since September 2001 in a "war against terrorism," and since March 2003, in a war in Iraq. It's also a victory for the Iraqi government and security services, for Zarqawi was their enemy. Finally, it's a victory for a crushing majority of the Iraqi people since, whether they are pro or anti-American, they were the al-Qaeda leader's first victims.

    That victory must, nonetheless, not hide the reality: the victor up to now in this war is Zarqawi himself. Before disappearing, the Jordanian jihadist had, in less than three years, won his main wagers.

    Zarqawi promised an international rout: by attacking UN headquarters in Baghdad, he succeeded in making United Nations' agencies, NGOs, and businessmen flee Iraq.

    Zarqawi promised a ruthless war against the American Army. Even if his participation from a military point of view was undoubtedly less decisive than he claimed - most operations being conducted by Iraqi rebels, ex-Saddamists, Islamists or Sunni villagers - the result is there: no American patrol can hope to leave its base in Baghdad or in the Sunni triangle without being harassed, often to deadly effect.

    Zarqawi finally and above all - it's what differentiated him from an Osama bin Laden at war against the West and Saudi Arabia - promised blood and tears to the Shiites, to the Kurds, and a civil war in Iraq: it is there.

    Certainly Iraqis have not gone down to the streets, Kalashnikov in hand, in their masses to kill their neighbors.

    But Sunni and Shiite militias make daily assassinations, population transfers have begun, and a climate of inter-community distrust - even hatred - sets Iraq ablaze.

    This civil war, larval since 2004, more violent since spring 2006, is Zarqawi's principal victory. He has imposed on Iraqis, including the Sunni guerrilla, this absolute hatred of Shiites. He has planted a much more disquieting seed for the Washington and Baghdad governments than the deaths of soldiers and police.

    His disappearance consequently changes nothing a priori about the Iraqi challenge. Certainly, we must wait to see who will take over from him. It is necessary above all to resolve the basic questions in Iraq: those of sovereignty and governance, American occupation, Iranian involvement, the destruction of the economy, the Islamization of society.