Obama Has Momentum Heading Into Chesapeake Primaries
    By Scott Galindez
    t r u t h o u t | Report

    Monday 11 February 2008

Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine introduced Sen. Barack Obama to thousands of supporters at TC Williams High School in Alexandria, VA. (Photo: Scott Galindez / Truthout)

    By sweeping this weekend's contests in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine and the US Virgin Islands, Sen. Barack Obama has the wind at his back heading into primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, DC, on Tuesday.

    The Clinton campaign continues to try to lower expectations, pointing to March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio, but it will be hard to explain ten consecutive losses. They point to the caucus system as a built-in advantage to Obama, but five of the contests will have been primaries.

    A closer look at what is happening indicates it is Obama's deep pockets that are giving him the advantage in state after state. In January, Obama raised 32 million dollars to Clinton's $13.5 million. The superior resources have allowed Obama to spend more on advertising, and open more field offices in state after state. The Clinton campaign did not start airing commercials in post Super Tuesday states until last Thursday, while Obama has been on the air for two weeks.

    While Obama may have an advantage in caucus states because they tend to favor candidates with passionate supporters, the margin of Obama's victories are a result of his organizational advantages.

    In more bad news for Clinton, campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle stepped down. Campaign aides said Solis Doyle made the decision to leave on her own and was not urged to do so by the former first lady or any other senior member of the team. But it comes as Clinton struggles to catch Obama in fundraising and momentum, and faces the prospect of losing every state contest in February after Super Tuesday.

Nine-year-old Aaron Aranza advises Obama on the best way to convince his mother to vote for him. Aaron's mother Sonia asked Obama for help in deciding who to vote for. Her husband was out campaigning for Hillary Clinton, while her son has been trying to sway her to Obama. (Photo: Scott Galindez / Truthout)

    Real Delegate Count

    The candidate who will eventually become the Democratic nominee will be selected by two different types of delegates: pledged delegates and super delegates. Pledged delegates are selected by the state primary contests. Obama has opened up a 58-delegate lead, 959 to 901. There are still 103 delegates yet to be determined in states that have already voted. All but one of those delegates come from states Obama won by large margins. Obama has won 19 of the 30 states that have voted with New Mexico still undecided.

    Super delegates include elected officials and other Democratic Party insiders. There will be roughly 796 at the convention in August, each with a say in who becomes the nominee. Their votes may actually determine which candidate eventually becomes the nominee. Some super delegates have already pledged their support to either Clinton or Obama.

    The Clinton campaign points to the delegate count with super delegates included, but even when included the gap has narrowed to 16 delegates: 1,112 to 1,096. Super delegates can switch their allegiances anytime before the convention.

    Trend Should Continue

    All of the polls and demographics point to Obama continuing his streak on Tuesday in the Chesapeake Primaries. Maryland and the District of Columbia are solidly in the Obama column, and he is favored in Virginia.

    On Sunday, Obama joined Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Congressman Jim Moran in Alexandria, Virginia, for a town hall meeting. During the question and answer period, Sonia Aranza asked Obama for help; she was undecided, her 9-year-old son Aaron was urging her to vote for Obama, while her husband was out campaigning for Hillary Clinton. She said she was torn and asked Obama why she should vote for him.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has been touting her economic plan in Virginia in the run-up to Tuesday's primary. (Photo: Scott Galindez / Truthout)

    Alexandria Mayor Bill Euille decided Obama might need some help, so he went into the crowd and escorted Aaron to the stage. After receiving advice from Aaron, Obama made his case. Obama touted his ability to bring people together, his independence from lobbyists and special interests, his lack of Washington double-speak and his belief he can beat John McCain in a general election. He closed by saying that when he is sworn in on day one, "our country will look at itself differently - the rest of the world will view us differently."

    After the rally, Sonia Aranza said she was still torn. She wished she could vote for both candidates. She said she was impressed by Hillary Clinton's experience and said that it was needed in the times we live in. Obama, she said, has the life experiences that would influence his decision-making.

    Nine-year-old Aaron described Obama as a "great man with new ideas." When Aaron was asked if he could convince his mom to vote for Obama, he said he was "confident" he could.

    Sen. Hillary Clinton was in Manassas, Virginia, touting her economic plan for the state. Clinton believes the US cannot turn the economy around without addressing the housing crisis. Clinton has called on the mortgage industry to observe a foreclosure moratorium of at least 90 days on subprime, owner-occupied homes, and a 5-year freeze in the monthly rate on subprime adjustable rate mortgages. Clinton would also provide $30 billion to states to help at-risk families and communities weather the foreclosure crisis. To provide states with additional tools to fight foreclosures, Clinton has introduced the Mortgage Refinancing Initiative Act to empower state housing agencies to use $10 billion to replace unworkable mortgages with stable, affordable loans. This bill could be important to Virginia, where more than 16,000 homeowners received foreclosure notices last year.

    Both candidates will be campaigning throughout Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia until the polls close on Tuesday night.