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Oil: Power Has Changed Sides

by: Jean-Michel Bezat  |  Visit article original @ Le Monde

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Crazy Oil (Art: Nicolas Vial / Le Monde)

    In the beginning of the 1970s, when a barrel of black gold cost less than $2, no one imagined that one day an American president would be reduced to begging the king of Saudi Arabia for an increase in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC's) production to bring down prices. Yet the West has reached that point. After an initial rebuff in mid-January, George W. Bush was at it again on Friday, May 16, during his meeting with King Abdullah in Riyadh. With no more success than the first time, unless one counts a limited and temporary increase.

    The time is long gone when Standard Oil of New Jersey, Anglo-Persian, Gulf Oil and their four other "sisters" dominated the world market. When President Roosevelt got King Ibn Saud to open Saudi wells to foreign companies in exchange for American military protection (1945). When Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh - guilty of nationalizing hydrocarbons - could be overthrown with impunity (1953). When one could pretend to believe that oil is an inexhaustible cornucopia.

    Market power has changed sides. It has slipped away from consuming countries and from Big Oil (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP ...). The development of the price per barrel ($128), is being determined behind the scenes in the Kremlin and in the meanders of the Iranian government, in Nigerian mangroves and on the banks of the Venezuelan Orinoco, in OPEC's Viennese corridors and in the halls of the New York Mercantile Exchange. And, above all, in Saudi palaces.

    The world is experiencing a third oil shock - slower than those of 1973 and 1980. The barrel, the price of which has increased six times in as many years, is more expensive in constant dollars than it was in the beginning of 1981. Its price may ebb by some $10 or $20 in coming months, but nothing is less certain. Analysts as respected as those of investment bank Goldman Sachs see the price going to an average of $141 in the second half of 2008 and to $148 in 2009. OPEC no longer rules out $200.

    The Wahabite kingdom, the only country able to put a million additional barrels on the market, balks at that idea. It even stiffened its tone recently, when it announced that between 2009 and 2020 it would limit daily production to 12.5 million barrels a day to preserve its reserves and the interests of future generations along with them. "Every time there are new discoveries, leave them in the ground, for our children will need them," the king has resolved.

    Nothing induces the Saudis to open the spigots. They consider the market to be well-supplied and stocks of crude and gas to be at good levels. They are especially worried about the United States' energy policy, which aims to reduce US "dependency" on Middle Eastern oil - a watchword launched by Mr. Bush and re-echoed in a single voice by presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. All that's necessary to understand the stakes is to hear the Saudi energy minister's denunciations of the bio-carburants being developed on the other side of the Atlantic. On top of that, comes certain American congresspeople's desire to submit the oil market to the anti-cartel rules of international trade, even to suspend arms sales if Riyadh doesn't increase its oil production. These initiatives worry and exasperate OPEC. The strategy of the Vienna cartel - which has given up setting a price range since 2003 - seems simple: supply the market to avoid any break, reduce the "security cushion" to a minimum (2 million barrels a day) and thus maintain the highest prices possible without compromising economic growth. With three-quarters of global reserves, the thirteen OPEC member states have the means to enforce their policy.

    Spiking Prices

    Consumer countries' dependence is linked to the fragility of the multinational companies. Oil states and their national public companies share 85 percent of the world's reserves. The majors no longer hold more than 15 percent and are having trouble reconstituting that percentage to the extent they draw those reserves down. What weight does "giant" ExxonMobil - the biggest listed company in the world - carry compared to Gazprom or Saudi Aramco? The great Western companies' access to oil fields - closed in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Mexico, ever more difficult in Russia, Venezuela and Algeria - would involve "returning to the period before the 1970s' nationalizations," believes Nicolas Sarkis, director of the "Arab Oil and Gas Review."

    Will it be necessary to make war for the precious liquid? Unimaginable, even if the thirst for oil was one motive for the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, as acknowledged by former Fed boss Alan Greenspan. What was the payoff? By increasing tensions in the Middle East and reducing supply, the war contributed to the spike in prices. Taking possession of these reserves by force would be a "rear-guard battle," with the oil-producing countries in "a position of strength" today, Mr. Sarkis notes. "They can sell their enormous dollar reserves and deprive the warmongers of oil by offering it to more pacific countries. To China, rather than America!

    A number of industrialized countries learned their lesson from the 1973 and 1980 crises and reduced their dependence. They need less oil to create the same amount of wealth. In the United States, successive administrations have resolved the issue the same way: "the American way of life is not negotiable." A policy that has led to US dependence on imported oil moving from 60 percent to 80 percent.

    In the immediate future, the problem is geopolitical: access to the resource is contracting. Longer term, the problem is geological. One trillion two hundred billion barrels of oil remain, or forty years' worth of consumption at the current rate of extraction. The most optimistic multiply that number by three, adding in the so-called "unconventional" crudes (heavy oils, bituminous shales). Unfortunately, they are very costly to extract. Fields are diminishing in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Mexico, Indonesia ...

    The only answer resides in a reduction in consumption. Now, the spike in prices has reduced demand at the margin only, since transportation operates at 97 percent, thanks to crude derivatives. Such a reduction is vital to reinforce energy security and fight global climate change. The least expensive, cleanest oil is oil that isn't burned.

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How or why anyone still

How or why anyone still believes anything GW Bush says even when he is bordering on saying something truthful is insanity. The man has lied maliciously for years to America and the world and this post smacks of Bush\neocon propaganda. Like the Saudi OIL Royalty and the American OIL conglomerates he also benefits directly and immensely from high oil prices. WAKE UP and put on your anti-brainwashing caps. The only solution to this oil conspiracy is to get corporate America under control and that means a NEW government not puppet mastered. So of course that leaves out McCain and Clinton as the next DECIDER'S!!! This also means JAIL for BUSH, CHENEY and a bunch of others. So, again. Get off your behinds America!!!

Should we deal with the

Should we deal with the Hedge Fund speculators or threaten OPEC?

Dealing with the speculators would involve confronting aspects of unregulated Capitalism here and now. It would force Governments to confront the western oil majors and financial market makers and make them change their ways. Recognising that betting billions is not acceptable where the nations security and way of life are threatened. It might happen but It would mean breaking the mould in American Politics but is highly unlikely. The oil majors spend a lot of money grooming pliant politicians for a free hand in the markets. Cracking down on the speculators won't happen it means addressing the structural faults within American and western Capitalism.

A much better short term solution is to bully OPEC into pumping more oil and avoiding the fact that the US economic model should be reformed altogether.

The high price of hydrocarbons has one silver lining, it brings to the market alternative sources of energy. The oil majors and coal producers will try to block, delay, divert the onset of these new sources to prevent their own companies becoming marginalised, reducing their power and holy of holy profits

Hydrogen is the future, you can even make the stuff at home. Imagine owning your own Hydrogen refinary at home or in every workplace for your own use under the individuals complete control. This is a big headache for governments because it would be difficult to tax and there would be no profits for Big Oil the governments paymasters. The whole framework for world domination through the control of resources would break down.

There are plenty of alternatives out there but wont be pushed they will be suppressed while there is more oil, coal and gas in the ground. But thats reckoning without the consumer high oil prices are tipping the balance in favour of alternatives and suppressing them is getting harder with each additional cent on the price of a gallon.

Bullying OPEC seems to be the best solution for W, Congress, and the Senate. It means they can leave the mess to someone else and shift the blame onto anti-American foreigners at the same time. A win-win for W, the oil majors and hedge fund speculators. Obama and the Democrats will carry the can when the bubble bursts

Should we feel badly that

Should we feel badly that oil is ending and the richest bastards in the world are jacking up the cost of their trade like it's LITERALLY going out of style? A better question is - do they feel badly for anyone else except their put-out Saudi buddies? IF they were smart they'd take all that money and re-develop the energy market to make SAND a commodity everyone needs, start using all those recipes for successful competition from the scientists they snuffed and bought-out and quit TRYING to cry poor mouth when people are losing their homes en masse. Try employing some Americans for a change!! It's not like they're hurting for change when Exxon's best fiscal year was over 41 BILLION dollars. Don't be idiots - kiss oil goodbye, but don't linger, because the supply and demand for clean fuel is already here.

Yesterday, that FEMA camp

Yesterday, that FEMA camp down outside town was only a tree farm. Occasionally there had been some trucks with workers going in and out. People tried to get the workers to chat about it, and all they got was a disinterested stare. They were all illegals anyway. Work was work and the economy is in a recession. Tonight as you sit at home with your family watching American Idol, the program is interrupted by a new brief from CNN’s Washington desk. A female Army captain uniform is reading a report about some kind of nuclear device that has detonated within the City of Houston. No one has yet claimed responsibility. 12 hours later, with every update, CNN shows the faces of a dozen dark haired men with Middle Eastern sounding names. The FBI had raided their apartments and found large amounts of documents and other evidence, - video tapes, parts, tools, and rolls of lead foil. The scene shifts to a news crew and team FBI investigators at one of the apartments mentioned. He holds up a driver’s license – Ahmed Tehrani. Other documents a reporter holds up to the camera reveal that Ahmed is a graduate physics student at the University of Texas, an Iranian immigrant. CNN cuts away now to a hurriedly arranged press conference at an air force base, somewhere in North Dakota. He announces that martial law had been put into effect one hour after the nuclear detonation in Houston. He confirms everyone’s worse fears. For all 50 states and US protectorates, all civilian air travel and railroad travel have been shut down. All police, fire service s, public and private telecommunications facilities have been feudalized under Homeland Security. Active duty, national guard units and Blackwater security forces are in control of roads, bridges, food warehouses. The President hardly paused when he continues to mention that the November elections will be cancelled due to the present state of emergency. Because, perhaps, you’re a different kind of bear, you’ve been vocal about the arbitrary dissolution of Congress and the mass arrests and detentions, under cover of numerous executive orders issued over the course of the previous eight years. You smelled a rat. You spoke up. Flash forward a month: You are in line at the local ‘Freedom Camp”, being pushed along, away from your FEMA trailer. The Blackwater guards are harassing some of the more stubborn ones. You see many with bloody noses and bruises, in a line that stretches for three blocks. “You all stink. We’re getting all you maggots over to the showers so you can get decontaminated. It’s for your own for your own healthy and safety.” “I’m hungry, when can we eat?” “Not until you get decontaminated. Now shut up.” You realize that the place you are being walked towards is an old meatpacking plant, but there are no animal in stockyards anywhere nearby to butcher. First, they come along and everyone is shaven down. Those doing the menial work are illegals, They walk up to each person in line, taking their valuables away and putting them into crates. A woman follows behind, says she’s from the Red Cross, and asks for anyway interested in donating blood. They’ll be able get their lunch without having to wait for the decontamination. Many agree and are walked away from the line. You are about to ask the woman why it would be safe to give blood if you hadn’t yet been decontaminated, but suddenly she moves along and someone else is now asking each person in line for their name and social security number. Two old men in the line begin They mumble, unable to remember their numbers. They’re ignored as the line suddenly begins to move again. The line continue to surge every twenty minutes or so, then halts. You smell smoke, an acrid, awful thick greasy smoke. Just beyond the shower building you, see a plume of black smoke slowly. You hear whispers in the line know. You can’t see, but you can hear someone scream, as he’s being clubbed down by three Blackwater men. The screaming stops. You look around again and shake your head. How could this have happened? you say to yourself. You feel a rising pitch of vomit climb up into your throat, and then all you can do is double over and retch. You are not the only one doing so. A rotten smell hangs in the air. There is nobody there to rescue you. You cough and wipe your mouth with your sleeve and look around, angry now. One guy suddenly dashes out of line, heading towards a line of trees a hundred yards to the west. He gets 30 feet and then he’s gunned down by Blackwater men. He could have waited - he could have bought some more time, maybe a minute, maybe more. What did it bring him to be a hero and try and make a run for it? Nobody cared. You’re still here and he is not. You smile. More Blackwater guards have arrived. They begin joking amongst themselves, pointing at the sullen men queued up in the long march to be decontaminated. One turns and makes eye contact with many. You all smell like I hope there’s some soap left by the time you reach the shower. Only clean pigs allowed here. The other Blackwater guards begin another loud round of laughter. The line continues its occasional surges forward . It has been hours. There must have been a thousand ahead of you, but thankfully, you near the doors. You hear muffled sounds within the building, unable to make out the words, the meaning. You hear doors open and close. Then you and others move quickly through a hallway, and told to take your clothes of a put them on the floor. Helpers walk up and down the hallway now. The helpers cheerfully tell everyone that their clothes will bell tagged and return after their decontaminated. The mood brightens a bit around you. You can even hear a few joking. Orders are for everyone to remain calm and quiet. You're reminded that there is plenty of warm water for everyone. It becomes silent now, as you all shuffle slowly towards another door. When the door opens, the helpers guide you in and you’re told to not bunch up together, and reminded that it's selfish to waste too much warm water. You look up and see shower heads above you. You want to ask why the floor is not wet, but are afraid they’ll beat you if you raise your voice. You notice now that the room smells of urine and death. Before you can say anything, the doors slam shut and the lights go out and a gas slowly rises up from the showerheads towards the ceiling. You think to yourself - there might still be time that someone may somehow burst in to rescue all of you. You hear sobbing and realize it is coming from you. And now you take in one long breath and your mind begins to fade to black.

The PTB are creating

The PTB are creating artificial scarcity. It is a war on humanity. Oil is not a fossil fuel. We have more oil than we can use. There is plenty of oil in the US. root.man peak oil is a lie http://tinyurl.com/ymcxyg

I remember when OPEC got the

I remember when OPEC got the average Americans attention the first time. Lines of cars that spanned several blocks and the price hit .50 cents, then .60 cents per gallon. We watched the gas stations all convert their pumps over to handle gas priced over the $1.00 mark. We became fuel economy minded as the White House installed a Solar panel system to generate electricity. Then , for some reason, the Solar panels were removed, we adjusted to the cost of gas at $1.09 to $1.50 per gallon and forgot all about the fuel shortages we experienced not once BUT TWICE. We fell in love with SUV's with load carrying capabilities of 2000 pounds even though we only utilized 10% of that with single occupancy at 10 MPG's. We saw no conflict of interest with two men in the White House who made their fortunes in oil as we waged war on a nation that sat on the second largest oil reserves in the world. And now, we face $4.00 and up per gallon, a wrecked economy, a military force that's ready to collapse, and Global Climate changes that may result in the Sixth Great Extinction. We knew this was coming-at least those of us who are now in our forties-and most of us have done nothing but to add to the problem. We new about peak oil, Global Climate change, and the long term need to develop alternative energy sources and yet, we did nothing. I have not owned a car since 1994-I live in Southern California-I do not get blood on my hands by filling up a gas tank. If I can do it, so can more of you as long as you are willing to make a couple life style changes. Sooner or later, some of you will have to give up the cars you drive-wouldn't it be better to do it on your own terms and by choice?

Well, i don't think it will

Well, i don't think it will be gas. But i read about guillotines deployed around the country. Good for organ harvesting. Make an additinal buck or two.

It's not the oil, it's not

It's not the oil, it's not the price. Their are just to many humans around, here, there, everywhere. Maybe we as a species have a change when we reduce our number to somewhere in the neighborhood of one billion a go on living sustainable, otherwise my great great great grandfather Thomas Malthus gets right after all. There is no endless growth possible on a globe.

Right now there are cars

Right now there are cars that run on electricity and compressed air engines. All they need is either compressed air or electricity. New technology in the printing industry is now making solar panels dirt cheap. Put the pieces together: solar panels on your roof + a bank of batteries and an air compressor in your garage = FREEDOM. We need to stop all the Shrubs, Hilarities, and John McMurderers from pushing us around and put them in their place, they are OUR servants, not the other way around.

Thanks, Roland; where else

Thanks, Roland; where else do you post?

Roland has it right. II

Roland has it right. II tell my friends that the short-term options are not buying a self-sufficient little cottage in the country. They're to stockpile food and negotiable goods like cigarettes and antibiotics and hunker down where you are. Know your neighbors and your local law enforcement. The long-term options are to cling to the underbelly of power as servants, or to disappear and try to become invisible, however difficult and dangerous that may be. The third option is to walk into the arms of death, unhesitating. That's the philosophy of the suicide bomber. Don't think it won't happen here. That might be the quickest, easiest and most autonomous way for some. The other way is to have your death chosen for you.

"Dirt cheap" is only

"Dirt cheap" is only possible because oil is still relatively dirt cheap. And solar panels have never been within reach of anyone with less than many thousands of discretionary dollars.And when oil goes up in price, so do costs for making solar panels, delivering them and installing them. And how about apartment dwellers or multiple-car families? Get real for once. There isn't any wonky gee-whiz techno way to sustain the motoring public. I have lost patience with the technophiles.

Herta-Daeubler Gmelin spoke

Herta-Daeubler Gmelin spoke of the coming picture show as she described the new 2004 administration. Roland must know her.

EDMUND HOUSE: YOU ARE

EDMUND HOUSE: YOU ARE CORRECT... BARACK OBAMA and MARY LANDRIEU FOR 'o8.

I am amazed at the amount of

I am amazed at the amount of resistance to alternative energy that is out there on the news and the blogs. They say that wind and solar could never solve our energy problems , but they never explain why. It has been calculated that we only need four million high output windmills in the windy northwestern states to solve our non vehicle energy problems. They would have the same output as all our coal, nuclear, and natural gas together and no pollution. To solve our transportation needs we would add as many solar farms in the sunny desert southwest as we need, to generate the electricity to produce hydrogen which will burn clean in your car you own today with some technical changes. Your gasoline powered engine can run on hydrogen today, producing no pollution.

Ken D. Webber in his

Ken D. Webber in his upstream post has it right... the technophobic nay saying of solar, wind etc ignores what is already happening. Check out Nanosolar, IBM concentrated solar, Project Better Place, and an ever increasing number of companies working on non-fossil fueled transport. A tech solution will happen in places with adequate financial resources and mindset even WITHOUT breakthroughs such as dirt cheap printing-press solar panel manufacturing, which of course IS underway right now! If we want change to occur sooner, we only need to remove the obstacles in our own thinking, which will inevitably lead to their removal in the political sphere.

The spice must flow...

The spice must flow...

Solar, Wind...sure. Why not.

Solar, Wind...sure. Why not. They'll help. But guess what's gonna keep all those nifty little Ipods, and scrumptious Macs from browning out, gang. Yep. You guessed her, Chester. Nukes. The new nuke plants can be up in 4 years time. They literally can't meltdown. And they'll fire up your plug-in car, arriving en masse in 2010, at the princely rate of 3 cents a mile. You're paying 17 cents a mile right now, or more. When the new bandwagon really starts to roll, the U.S. stock market will double in about 5 years. We win big, faster than anyone now realizes. Arabs lose. Cellulosic ethanol, and hydrogen will come on line in due course. Welcome aboard! Citizens! Rejoice! Prepare yourselves for the Rise of the New Consumer. And, enjoy a new, parabolic stock market. Technology may not be god, but man, it can fly like an angel!

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