Opinion

The Power of De

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by: Paul Krugman, The New York Times

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(Photo: Getty Images)

    Save the home lenders, save the world? If only it were that simple.

    The just-announced federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giant mortgage lenders, was certainly the right thing to do - and it was done fairly well, too. The plan will sustain institutions that play a crucial role in the economy, while holding down taxpayer costs by more or less cleaning out the stockholders.

    But Sunday's action needs to be seen in a larger context - that of the attempt by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to contain the fallout from the ongoing financial crisis. And that's a fight the feds seem to be losing.

    We've come a long way from the days when Alan Greenspan declared a national housing bubble "most unlikely." There was indeed a bubble, and since it popped two years ago home prices have fallen faster than they did during the Great Depression.

    Falling home prices, in turn, have led to the much-feared phenomenon of "debt deflation." Yes, deflation: prices are going up at the checkout counter, but the prices of assets, which are what matter for balance sheets, are dropping fast.

    As the economist Irving Fisher observed way back in 1933, when highly indebted individuals and businesses get into financial trouble, they usually sell assets and use the proceeds to pay down their debt. What Fisher pointed out, however, was that such selloffs are self-defeating when everyone does it: if everyone tries to sell assets at the same time, the resulting plunge in market prices undermines debtors' financial positions faster than debt can be paid off. So deflation in asset prices can turn into a vicious circle. And one consequence of what he called a "stampede to liquidate" is a severe economic slump.

    That's what's happening now, with debt deflation made especially ugly by the fact that key financial players are highly leveraged - their assets were mainly bought with borrowed money. As Paul McCulley of Pimco, the bond investor, put it in a recent essay titled "The Paradox of Deleveraging," lately just about every financial institution has been trying to reduce its leverage - but the plunge in asset values has nonetheless left these institutions with more debt relative to their assets than before.

    And the numbers keep getting worse. In July 2007 Ben Bernanke suggested that subprime losses would be less than $100 billion. Well, last month write-downs by banks and other financial institutions passed the $500 billion mark - and the hits keep coming.

    Which brings us to Fannie and Freddie. They're the only big financial institutions that haven't joined in the rush to deleverage, which is why they now account for about 70 percent of new mortgage loans. But their financial foundations have been undermined by debt deflation, even though their lending was more responsible than average. (A subprime borrower is basically someone whose credit wasn't good enough to qualify for a Fannie- or Freddie-backed mortgage.)

    So Fannie and Freddie had to be rescued - otherwise debt deflation would have gotten much worse. Indeed, their financial troubles have already caused problems for would-be home buyers: mortgage rates are up sharply since earlier this year. With the federal takeover, which removes the pressure on the lenders' balance sheets, we should see mortgage rates drop again - which is definitely good news.

    But is it enough? I doubt it.

    The current U.S. financial crisis bears a strong resemblance to the crisis that hit Japan at the end of the 1980s, and led to a decade-long slump that worried many American economists, including both Mr. Bernanke and yours truly. We wondered whether the same thing could take place here - and economists at the Fed devised strategies that were supposed to prevent that from happening. Above all, the response to a Japan-type financial crisis was supposed to involve a very aggressive combination of interest-rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, designed to prevent the crisis from spilling over into a major slump in the real economy.

    When the current crisis hit, Mr. Bernanke was indeed very aggressive about cutting interest rates and pushing funds into the private sector. But despite his cuts, credit became tighter, not easier. And the fiscal stimulus was both too small and poorly targeted, largely because the Bush administration refused to consider any measure that couldn't be labeled a tax cut.

    As a result, as I suggested, the effort to contain the financial crisis seems to be failing. Asset prices are still falling, losses are still mounting, and the unemployment rate has just hit a five-year high. With each passing month, America is looking more and more Japanese.

    So yes, the Fannie-Freddie rescue was a good thing. But it takes place in the context of a broader economic struggle - a struggle we seem to be losing.

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Comments

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As usual Paul misses the

As usual Paul misses the point. The Bond (asset) holders will suffer NO DAMAGE, NONE, NADA. But the poor schnooks in the payroll class who were invested in common shares via Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, Hedge Funds and individual investments will transfer there wealth to them. You really have to be slow to not realize this along with Bear and soon Lemann are not fully engineered events. We have been playing musical chairs for the last 30 years. The music has stopped and it's time to find a chair. Only problem most of them are reserved, and not for you or me. The greatest transfer of wealth out of the hands of the payroll class and into the hands of the asset class continues. The Bankers have been doing this throughout our written history. If you really want to understand what's happening to you go to Utube and check out a film called the Money Masters. We've been told, but we just won't listen. We now have Socialism for the asset holders and free markets for the traders of there labor for a wage. And if your feeling depressed about it, go back to Utube and look for the George Carlin skit called “Who Owns America”. At least you’ll get a laugh while you cry.

The contrast between a few

The contrast between a few comments generated from this article vs.the many comments about the shake down on MSNBC highlights the truth about any real news coverage coming out of this medium. The tube stuggled to be more than just a marketing tool since its infancy. That battle was lost more than a few years ago! The dumbing down of the general public has been accomplished so why keep up the sham?Who needs Keith and Chris? They just confuse people anyway with the light they shed on the news coming from that little flashlight the network gives them! Even if people out there really gave a dam as to what is really happening the fact that they are too busy trying to figure out how to keep a job, keep a roof over their heads, and not loose everything when they get sick prohibits much time for searching the internet for the facts! Its all just too much!

Who cares if the big money

Who cares if the big money is happy! socializing losses, beats any taxpayer, while privatizing profits,goes to the rich ones!

To Mr. Edge- To a fix all

To Mr. Edge- To a fix all the blame for the sudden increase in world liquidity on Mr. Greenspan is not quite fair. An increase in commodity prices made many third world countries "cash rich"-Russia and Nigeria come to mind and these countries not trusting their own dubious banking systems sought security in what they considered the most sophisticated bank in the world the old USA. Big mistake, what they thought was a safe haven turned out to be a casino. Bankers under tremendous pressure to invest the money got reckless. The quantities of money made the sector look like the Bay of Fundy at high tide. Now the tide is out and as Mr.Buffet says" you get to see who was swimming naked." Could Greenspan have held back the rising tide? One would like to think so, but that is what you call wishful thinking. Think King Canute.

The fall of real estate

The fall of real estate prices IS THE CURE. They still have a LONG way to go down before any 'recovery' is realistic. They MUST fall down to where a working person can afford a modest home. All the non producing bankers and corrupt gov parasites MUST fall with them. These pigs have hijacked the US dollar itself, and it must also fall with them. Until they are GONE no 'recovery' is possible. Until Congress establishes our new currency, and keeps it safe from pig bankers, NO recovery can occur. It may seem like a tall order, but it is ALL possible, legal, and prescribed by our own Constitution.

The dollar still has value

The dollar still has value because other nations do not manage their corruption any better than we do. Alarming to me is what China and other large holders of dollars are doing with the dollars. China, from what I hear, is buying hard assets: mines, property, etc., all over the world. When a friend visited South America on a recent trip, she was asked when we (the USA) were going to get ourselves back together. Apparently, many of us were kinder and gentler than the Chinese entrepreneurs they had recently encountered. What reassures me, living in the admittedly unusual Upper Left Coast, is how many people here understand the changes we will need to recover from the behaviors of our present regime. We are growing things in our back yards and on roofs in the city. Some of us are even learning how to flint-knap, even though we are more likely to find bottles rather than obsidian when we have to make do. I would rather use a match than a bow-drill, but I learned to do it just in case. The major media cover Cindy McCain's dress (I admit I was scandalized), while the rest of us roll our eyes, tighten our belts, and look over the seed catalogs or harvest seeds from the stuff we already grew (We did not buy our seeds from places who sell seeds that won't produce the next season). The Chinese have lost a lot of money investing in bad paper goods here, but they don't have 50 years of investment in weapons to foreclose on bad paper. They will just try to turn as many of those dollars as they can into real goods that they can use to produce what they want at home.

Neither a borrower nor a

Neither a borrower nor a lender be...

'Socialist takeover'? Does

'Socialist takeover'? Does that mean you'll vote for the Democrat?

Isn't it interesting that

Isn't it interesting that this critical Krugman article only gets s very few comments while the political action against Olberman and Matthews get dozens. Hey folks! The action against those two and their truth telling attitude toward the Republican machine is low level minor and you would expect that NBC (MSNBC) would dump them to silence their McCain/Palin bashing, when they only reported facts. The situation discussed by Krugman represents the end of American life as many of have ever known it. You money isn't there any more.

Since the Federal Reserve is

Since the Federal Reserve is a coalition of private banks that print our money, and since the government borrows money from that group of private individuals to run the government, there is no limit to the paper the Reserve can and is printing. They've taken the gold on which the value of the paper is based long ago. Tax on workers' wages is illegal as every Supreme Court decision has ruled. (When cornered, the past head of the IRS said, "The Supreme Court is irrelevant.") Wage earners pay more than four times the amount of legal tax on corporations and that money goes to pay the interest on the loan the government pays to borrow money from the Reserve. No we can't spend our way out of debt, but we ain't they. They won't suffer, we will: I am.

The late John Kenneth

The late John Kenneth Galbraith described this type of scenario in several of his books. Particularly, he described how speculation of a major sort brought on deflation through a massive sell off provoking the Great Depression of the 1930's. It is scary how many similarities exist between our melt down and the big one back in the 30's. Now, we are told that it can't happen again because the managers of the economy today are far more sophisticated then they were back then. Perhaps they are, but then one must raise the obvious question"if they are so much more sophisticated, then why did the allow this huge bubble to grow in the first place?" Paul Krugman is the first mainstream economist who I know of to use the R word. I am impressed, as I was cautioned a year ago by a high ranking economist at Citigroup to never use that word. Instead he suggested disinflation. Now perhaps the cat is getting out of the bag and its no kitty, more like a very hungry mountain lion. I guess the big question is how bad does it get? And what is the remedy. Remember the Great Depression was only cured by the war and afterwards by the perpetual war economy. Is there a Hitler in the house? Finally, great to see somebody remembers Irving Fisher probably the second most important economic thinker in the last century. If we could retain some sense of history perhaps we could control these things, but I doubt it.

MSM pundits like Mr. Krugman

MSM pundits like Mr. Krugman are always a hoot to read. Not a word is said about the trillions of "dollars" that suddenly appeared on the economic stage thanks to the legerdemain of Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Bernanke via the Federal Reserve bankers. No mention of debasing the already pathetic currency with a flood of new paper. There is a silly old economic law that goes like "you cannot spend your way out of debt." Now either the economic geniuses at the Fed have decided to test this law, or they are deliberately devaluing the dollar to pay off foreign debt with cheaper paper. Either way, the average American will take the hit as they see their savings and retirement assets drop in value. Before everyone gets ready to follow the Japanese into a deflationary slump, they might be better off getting ready for a Wiemar style hyperinflationary blowout. Mr. Kregman is quite correct: the effort to contain the crisis is failing, and it is failing fast. We are in the hands of, or rather at the mercy of, the Chinese and Sovereign Wealth Funds that are holding all the bogus paper. It might, at this time, be advisable to put a rather large portion of your assets into instruments other than dollar based holdings.

Let the record show that in

Let the record show that in September 2008, Republicans, under George W. Bush, engineered the biggest Socialist takeover of private property since the 1917 Communist revolution in Russia, using arguments that apply equally well to national health care, the airline industry, the telecommunications industry, and the oil industry.