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Democrates Weary of Bush's Iran Intelligence    [

    US Seeks to Curb Iran With Neighbors' Help
    By Paul Richter and Peter Spiegel
    The Los Angeles Times

    Saturday 20 May 2006

The plan calls for missile defense systems and interceptions of nuclear technology. Gulf states are receptive but wary of angering Tehran.

    Washington - Opening a new front in its effort against Iran, the Bush administration has begun developing a containment strategy with the Islamic state's Persian Gulf neighbors that aims to spread sophisticated missile defense systems across the region and to interdict ships carrying nuclear technology to the country.

    Although the primary goal is to keep Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, the defense effort also reflects the administration's planning for a day when Iran becomes a nuclear state and, officials fear, more aggressive in a region that provides oil exports to the world.

    "Iran without nuclear arms is a threat". With nuclear weapons it would become even more emboldened, in terms of moving forward with its aggressive designs," Robert Joseph, undersecretary of State for arms control and international security, said in an interview. "And that includes in the gulf, and many countries in the gulf are concerned about that."

    Although Tehran insists that its uranium-enrichment program is aimed only at creating fuel for civilian use, gulf leaders are anxious about Iran's rising influence in the region and the possibility that it will develop nuclear weapons.

    But they are also unwilling to appear provocative to Tehran, which is a major trading partner and an intermittent military threat.

    U.S. officials will have to overcome that nervousness before they can persuade the nations to sign on to their full package of proposals, gulf officials and experts on the region say.

    "They don't want to antagonize, so there is a degree to which they are conflicted," said a senior State Department official who requested anonymity.

    However, he added, the gulf countries "as a whole are very receptive to the message."

    U.S. officials say they see the initiative as a way to put additional pressure on Tehran while they press ahead with their primary diplomatic effort, which calls for the U.N. Security Council to take steps to halt Iran's enrichment program. The U.S. has so far failed to win enough support at the United Nations for sanctions.

    Joseph rolled out the proposal during a trip last month to the gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.

    John Hillen, assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs, led a top-level U.S. delegation to the region last week for further discussions.

    Hillen said the initiative was "really the first time in a while" the U.S. had been actively involved in trying to reshape a regional security system. The effort "could put pressure on Iran to behave responsibly," he said.

    The United States has helped defend many of the gulf states since the 1970s and has large naval, air and intelligence operations in the area.

    But officials say the joint defense efforts must be strengthened if they are to be effective in stemming the flow of nuclear technology to Iran and protecting neighboring nations.

    U.S. officials want to help boost the gulf states' ability to monitor and control cargo on the high seas and goods transshipped from busy gulf ports. They want to help improve the countries' abilities to detect "front" companies for Iran, to use American-style export control regulations, and to identify and halt transactions that finance Iran's purchase of goods for its unconventional weapons programs.

    The containment strategy aims to improve the countries' ability to protect oil facilities and other infrastructure and to train personnel in counter-terrorism and in handling attacks involving unconventional weapons.

    The Bush administration is also eager to see wider use of sophisticated defenses against aircraft and missiles. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have Patriot antimissile batteries, but U.S. officials say other countries need them as well, especially in light of Iran's advanced ballistic missile program.

    U.S. officials declined to provide specifics of their approach on missile defense for the region. It is unclear whether the U.S. would provide the military hardware or sell it to the nations.

    Many of the region's countries have been apprehensive that Washington would soon pressure them to provide bases or other help to enable U.S. forces to attack Iran. U.S. officials insist that this effort is exclusively about defense.

    The program is "defensive, defensive, defensive," Hillen said.

    U.S. officials say one of the greatest dangers if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon is that it could give Tehran new confidence to act against its neighbors.

    The senior State Department official said the Shiite-led country might mount terrorist attacks or try to destabilize gulf countries by appealing to their sympathetic Shiite minorities.

    The Iranians have warned of their ability to halt oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between Oman and Iran through which much of the world's oil cargo passes.

    Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, the senior U.S. commander in the Middle East, told Congress in March that Iran had expanded the naval bases along its shores and arrayed large numbers of fast-attack ships armed with torpedoes and high-speed missiles.

    In interviews this week, officials from some gulf nations acknowledged concern about Iran and their interest in U.S. defense assistance, but also emphasized their eagerness to avoid confrontation.

    "We have good relations with our allies, but we are hoping that all confrontations can be avoided," Qatar's ambassador to the United States, Nasser bin Hamad al Khalifa, said in an interview.

    Al Khalifa said he was skeptical that the gulf countries could be of much use in blocking Iran's access to nuclear goods, because they "don't have nuclear technology and they don't trade in them. To me it's a little surprising that people would think we could have an effect on this."

    Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank, said one of the challenges for the administration in working out these arrangements was that the gulf countries preferred such steps to be taken as quietly as possible, whereas U.S. officials wanted to send a public message.

    The gulf states "are receptive as long as we have the good taste to keep our mouths shut," said Clawson, a longtime Iran watcher.

    "In this case, they are going to be even more eager to do this quietly because they know the Iranians will be upset about it."

    The U.S., on the other hand, "will want to do this even more publicly than usual, because they want a maximum deterrent effect," he said.

    Some analysts were skeptical that the United States would be able to sell the effort.

    Ray Takeyh, an Iran specialist with the Council on Foreign Relations, said he believed gulf officials were unlikely to risk antagonizing their far larger neighbor even if they might be privately sending positive signals to U.S. officials.

    "This is a tough place for them to be in," Takeyh said. "At some point they might have to live with an Iran that has nuclear arms. They don't want to go back to the 1980s, when the Iranians were actively trying to subvert their countries. So they have to tread softly here."

 

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    Democrats Ask Bush for Iran Intel Update
    The Associated Press

    Friday 19 May 2006

    Washington - Senate Democrats, saying they want to "avoid repeating mistakes made in the run-up to the conflict in Iraq," sent President Bush a letter Friday urging him to direct the nation's intelligence agencies to prepare an updated National Intelligence Estimate on Iran.

    "We must have objective intelligence untainted by political considerations or policy preferences and a comprehensive debate in the Congress about the best short and long-term approaches to resolving the international community's differences with Iran," the Democrats' letter said.

    The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, has accused Iran of failing to answer questions about its nuclear program. In late March, it reported Tehran to the Security Council and gave it one month to address the demands.

    The Bush administration has been at the forefront in sounding a warning about Iran's nuclear abilities and potential ambitions.

    The Democrats, while wary of a repeat of the Bush administration's warnings about alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, which turned out not to exist, stressed in their letter that they, like the administration, are seriously concerned about Iran's intentions.

    "An Iranian nuclear weapons program would be a significant threat to international peace and security," they wrote to Bush. "Iran's refusal to conclusively explain or halt its uranium enrichment and other nuclear activities and its acquisition of ballistic missiles, coupled with the troubling rhetoric of its president, presents serious challenges to security in the Middle East and requires the United States to energetically pursue a diplomatic solution.

    "The international community must not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and Iran must know that it ultimately will not succeed in undermining international peace and stability," said the letter.

    The letter was signed by Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., Assistant Democratic Leader Dick Durbin of Illinois, Intelligence Committee Vice Chairman Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, Armed Services Committee ranking member Carl Levin of Michigan and Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Joe Biden of Delaware.