Opinion

When the Base Revolts

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by: Sridhar Pappu, The Washington Independent

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Senator Evan Bayh (D-Indiana) seemed like more than a long-shot possibility for the vice-presidential slot. (Photo: Jae C. Hong / AP)

    Can the left let Obama take the vital center?

    Raleigh, North Carolina - It seemed so right just two weeks ago. This was in Elkhart, Ind., and Sen. Evan Bayh, mentioned as a possible running mate of Sen. Barack Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee, seemed more than a long-shot possibility for the vice-presidential slot. That day, Bayh was more than probable. He was the one.

    It made too much sense. Outside the packed high school gym, one couldn't help but understand why Bayh would be a perfect sidekick to the man. Here, from the nation's heartland, was a contemporary of Obama, who could help him take perhaps not only Indiana but also surrounding states -- maybe even Ohio. Bayh, son of a respected senator, had been a governor and had extensive foreign-policy experience.

    More important, at least that day, Bayh seemed to share Obama's boyish energy and fervor, speaking with eloquence as he introduced his fellow junior senator from the neighboring state. Bayh could help Obama run the table through the Midwest, even those still considered red states, or so I thought. Moreover, as men born of the same generation, they would make for a matched pair in the same vein of William Jefferson Clinton and Al Gore. Here were two handsome, erudite men who would stand for the next era in the Democratic Party.

    Then came the vacation. While Obama took a much-needed rest with his family in Hawaii, the howl from the left grew louder and louder. Within days of the event and people talking about the probability of an Obama-Bayh ticket, the same people who had championed Obama during the Democratic primaries turned on him -- or, rather, his would-be running mate.

    They set up websites and blogged nonstop, cursing Bayh as unworthy -- far too conservative to serve as second-in-command for the man whom the Democratic base considered heir to the great, unfinished dreams of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. As a result, as of this writing, most of the chattering class and the mentioners have generally dismissed Bayh's chances for vice president as all but dead. The base, it seemed had roared and been heard.

    But Bayh's apparent fall was only the most recent show of liberal muscle. In the past few months, Obama has taken some degree of heat for clinging to the yellow line of the middle of the road on everything from voting for the FISA bill to agreeing to offshore drilling as part of an overall energy bill. The question now seems to lurk near Obama like a tripwire: Has he forsaken progressive ideals to win the center? And if he hasn't, should he?

    It is, of course, conventional wisdom that he must. Those of us who chronicle politics understand that, in the primaries, a candidate needs to appeal to the steadfast party base, the loyalists who want to see their ideals reflected in you. But it is also a truism that, after a candidate has done just that, a move to the center is essential. That's where general elections are won.

    Yet, in today's environment, with a highly mobilized party base that has the rapid-response technology to fight vociferously against any such moves, one is left to wonder: Can Obama even attempt that center-shift if he must fear the wrath of his base. Can he claim the vital center if the base won't let him?

    This question was in full view Monday in New Mexico, when Obama, his sleeves rolled as usual, scanned the 1,800 people gathered at a town hall in the gymnasium of Rio Grande High School in Albuquerque, N.M. It was a balmy afternoon. That morning, Obama had admitted to 43 women he'd convened to talk about equal rights and gender issues that he was suffering from a cold -- actual proof of the chosen one's mortality. Memories of the primary season, of his ultimate victory over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her well-heeled bickering machine, had begun to slip into memory. The Democratic National Convention was less than a week away, and, with it, his official entry into the general election. Now, as the Q-and-A period began, he readied himself for questions that all seemed to follow the same vein: Why the hell should we elect you?

    Looking to the bleachers, he called first called on Dallas Timmons. Timmons, a woman with short-cropped hair and the ward chair of the local Democratic Party, didn't take much time to express both admiration and concern. She spoke about how she and others in the party had celebrated his stand against the war in Iraq. But, she said, they all now felt, on issues like his vote for the recent FISA bill, he had "peddled and compromised."

    "As president, you set the agenda for this country," Timmons said. "Are you gonna set an agenda of change or one of compromise of what the Republican minority is gonna allow you to do in the Congress?"

    After praising Timmons' for being feisty, and addressing the issue of troop withdrawal and FISA, Obama finally said, "Even if we do well, there's still gonna be almost half the country that votes for somebody else. So one of the things that we have to understand is that there's nothing wrong with compromise -- as long as you understand what your core principles are. And my core principles are that I'm fighting for ordinary Americans to make sure that they can live out their American dream and I am fighting to make sure that our values and ideals enshrined in our Constitution and our Declaration of Independence are upheld."

    The next day, David R. Gergen, director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, who has served as a White House adviser to Presidents Richard M. Nixon, Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, put the matter into some learned light.

    "Winning elections and governing in America is a complex undertaking -- and it takes some recognition that most of the country is more moderate," Gergen said. "More people identify themselves as moderates than either liberal or conservative. I think he's a moderate -- but a liberal moderate. And he's not running as an ideologue, which I think is important. I do think, though, he has to sharpen his message so that those moderates are comfortable with his values."

    "I don't think he's changed positions," Gergen pointed out. "He's changed the emphasis in which he talks about things. He's in for a hard fight and there are large swatches of the country that are waiting to see if he's pretty close to them in terms of values. This hasn't been easy for Democrats to do. There's a reason Democrats have lost seven out of the last 10 elections for president. With Obama you've seen an emphasis on things like faith-based initiatives, which have always been part of his platform, but wasn't a major emphasis in the primary campaign."

    What the candidate from either party finds on emerging from the internal bickering of the primary season is an electorate that's not only larger but, in many ways, almost the opposite of the party base that gave you the nomination. Primary voters are hyper-focused on the candidates -- parsing each word they say because they want someone who will best represent their party's beliefs to the country and the world. They rabidly seek out information about the candidates.

    But the independent voter in the general election is someone who does not seek out a candidate. Rather, he or she is someone a candidate needs to find.

    Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist in California, explained this dichotomy. "There's always been this tension about whether you run a populist campaign -- geared towards middle-class voters, their needs, their angers." Carrick said, "or do you run a moderate, DLC [Democratic Leadership Council] model. The truth is we've come out of this hybrid of the two."

    "He has to show people who don't live in Seattle or New York City that he's real," said the Democratic strategist Liz Chadderdon. "Campaigns aren't about issues. They're about emotions. Raw emotions. And he has to spend a lot of time speaking to people in the middle of America. He has to broaden his voice."

    But broadening his voice might come with certain consequences in this Internet-triggered election.

    The stark differences between Obama and McCain extend out to the relationship they have with the bases of their respective parties. Rising from the 10-car pileup that was the GOP primary process, McCain emerged the candidate, yes, but also as a man in many way at odds with the social conservatives and evangelicals that formed the base of the modern GOP.

    By contrast, it was the liberal base, whose ideals remain rooted in the ideals of Franklin D. Roosevelt and John and Bobby Kennedy, who helped power the turbine of Obama's miraculous primary run. Just as McCain must win the trust of those within his party, Obama must do the opposite. He must reassure them that he will not give up their big causes and run straight to the center, that he will retain the ideals that have embodied his primary campaign.

    Is this a genuine concern? Just ask Tony Coelho, the former House Majority whip who served as chairman of Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. He thinks that the liberal wing of the party yawned at the thought of Gore -- viewing him as a too much of a centrist, running straight to the middle.

    "I remind a lot of Democrats who didn't vote for Al Gore -- because he wasn't liberal enough -- that we got George Bush," Coelho said. "How did that help the liberal cause? Al Gore would not have gotten us into Iraq, and he wouldn't have appointed Supreme Court justices like John Alito and John Roberts. I am not one of those who sits back and says you're either 100 percent with us or you're against us. It doesn't make sense. Obama might be something you might not like to win in Pennsylvania or somewhere else. Governing is more important than purity. You've got to keep your ideals == but you have to be a realist."

    Listening to Coelho speak, his words evoked a scene early in the run of "The West Wing." Sitting with an associate Supreme Court justice ready to retire, Martin Sheen's President Bartlet suddenly found himself under fire from the elderly jurist, who barked, "You ran great guns in the campaign. It was an insurgency, boy, a sight to see. And then you drove to the middle of the road the moment after you took the oath. Just the middle of the road. Nothing but a long line painted yellow....I wanted to retire five years ago. But I waited for a Democrat. I wanted a Democrat. Hmmph! And instead I got you."

    The day after Timmons' challenge, Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director was standing in the aftermath of another town hall, this one at the North Carolina State Fair Grounds. He, along with the candidate and the press corps had woken early, attended an event in Orlando, and now faced the bright prospect of a few hours off from the trail. With his suit jacket flung over his left shoulder, and his tie slightly undone, Gibbs began to address the question of whether the campaign was moving to the center and the complexities of holding onto the Democratic base that brought Obama his historic nomination.

    "If you look at where the American people are, we're where the American people are on issue after issue after issue," Gibbs said. "Whether it's getting responsibly out of Iraq; or forming an energy independence plan -- I think Sen. Obama's where the American public is.

    "If you look at polling," Gibbs continued, "Democrats are two, three times more energized about their nominee than Republicans are about theirs. The great thing is that the base wants change and independents in this country want change. As a matter of fact, moderate Republicans want change. I think we're fortunate that we have a message that carries across all of those platforms."

    Walking out soon after, one was enveloped by the darkness of the grounds. It was one of those moments on the campaign trail where one is suddenly returned to the quiet rhythms of American life. It is in such a physical and emotional space that you come to the important, if not obvious, realization that, beyond the walls you write and report in, is a whole country -- where this campaign is bigger than guessing who the vice presidential nominee will be.

    It is about the future of this country, of the next chapter in our shared American story. It is a country Obama must draw to his cause -- as he has the foot-soldiers of the Democratic Party. Should he hope to win out in this razor-close race, Obama will do so as a candidate who can gain the trust of newcomers who've just now come to his message and story, while keeping the aspirations and dreams of the true-believers who've brought him this far more than just alive. They must be electric.

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Comments

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I have to wonder just what

I have to wonder just what all these labels really mean. Left, right, center? Fringe elements? Base? Liberal, conservative... the list goes on. Radical, populist... we all have different takes on these words yet the bottom line really should be who is most equipped to deal with a huge host of problems that face our nation and our world. All this tossing labels around is just fiddling while Rome burns. The problem with John McCain isn't that he is conservative (which he isn't really) it is that he is obviously impaired and in no shape to be president. While the plutocracy loves a doddering, half dead president, the other 99% of us must surely realize the utter folly of letting those who mess in their own nest be in charge of anything ever again. Personally, I would love to see Cynthia McKinney as president and Ralph Nader as vice president and Ron Paul as secretary of state, and Barack Obama secretary of education (my list goes on and I'll spare you except to say that Bob Barr could be dog catcher). I know this isn't likely to happen this year but I also know that Barack Obama is a much, much (did I say much?) better man than John McCain for the job, and I believe that electing him could hasten the day when McKinney, or some one like her, could be elected president. I think Obama will win in November by a landslide. Only time will tell if Fox, NBC, CBS, CNN, and the AP will ever allow us to find out.

I agree with Joe S &

I agree with Joe S & jpoverseas but want to raise another point: while Obama may yet retain the vast majority of pragmatists on the left, what does he hope to gain by hewing right? Does he really expect to get the votes of the closet rednecks and the KKK? Does he imagine he can sway a single anti-abortionist crusader? Or the warmongers and war profiteers? Nobody really believes the nonsense about him being a Muslim. They WANT it to be true, they are looking for ANY excuse to reject him. Center? What center? The center sporting "Support Our Troops" stickers that looks on and shrugs while others are sent to bleed and die in a lost cause?

If Obama wins, and I

If Obama wins, and I certainly hope he does, he will have to govern from center-left. The country will rebel if he tries to move it too much or too quickly.

This article is another

This article is another piece of retarded propaganda. Obama is NOT against the war in Iraq regardless of his rhetoric. He wants to withdraw about 2/3 of U.S. troops and send them to Afghanistan. He will keep the private contractors in Iraq and he will keep about 50-60K U.S. troops there "to fight terrorism" and for a bunch of other vague reasons he gives. If you are going to vote for an imperialist, why not just vote for McCain straight out? At least he's honest about it. If you are anti-imperialist, vote Nader or McKinney, whoever is polling higher.

As JOE points out, McCain

As JOE points out, McCain has moved hard to the right and even embraced one of the most despised presidents in history but is giving Obama a race no one thought possible six months ago. From whence comes the evidence for--as opposed by the repetition of--the "conventional wisdom" that a candidate must move the to the illusory center to win the general election? As far as I can see, the only case in recent history, or not so recent history, where a candidate lost by not hewing to the so-called center was 40 years ago in the McGovern debacle, and it is hard to see how Humphrey, the former liberal turned centrist, might have done much better in the circumstances. By my count, five Democratic candidates lost since then by following the conventional wisdom. Gore had much more support as a "populist" early on than he did as a centrist, enough so even Jeb, Katharine, and the Supremes couldn't have installed Darth and his dummy. Clinton might have been a liberal in Arkansas, but he was a DLCer from the git go. The more you read the comments here and on the rest of the left, the more it looks like Obama is losing the support of those of us who "have nowhere else to go", at least according to the pundits and the triangulizers. From the polls I've seen, large majorities Americans are in favor of the central programs of the lefty Dems from single payer health insurance to getting out of Iraq to reinstating all of the Constitution. So it would seem a Democratic run on that basis would be a walk. Pappu has given us one more round of the "wisdom" of the DLC, which has yet to be right. But, like their ideological cousins the neocons, the DLCer seems to claim to have special access to "Truth" that stands beyond the need of evidence. The almost constant incorrect predictions and disastrous advice of both is always be explained away by opposition of those who have yet to see the light. It would be truly disheartening if a nothing with nothing who portends four more years of disaster like McCain were to win in Nov. But if that were to happen, it would be because Obama abandoned those of us on the left, not because we abandoned him. Just how many affairs does a spouse have to have before it is legitimate to get a divorce? For Pappu and the DLCers, you gotta stand by their man no matter what. Some of us have sufficient self-respect to refuse always to choose against the greater of two evils. Obama keeps talking about abandoning the politics of fear, but how is the appeal of Pappu, Coelho, Gergen, and the rest not a politics of fear, the politics of the bogeyman? If enough of us have the courage to reject fear this time, it won't be us who elected McCain, but Obama who did.

Senator Obama has already

Senator Obama has already betrayed his "values" or "core principles by stating that offshore drilling & a number of other legislative pushes are ok. He's shown himself so interested in corporate funding that he's declined public financing--so he can keep taking those big corporate donations. Do you think those corporations won't expect payback? Just business as usual in the 21st C Gilded Age in the US.

I'm really not concerned

I'm really not concerned about the polls at the moment, and would not be even if they showed Obama in the lead. What I am more concerned about, and am pleased to see discussed is the fact that, overall and in general, we are a society of moderates with fringe elements. Because we have been trained in various ways to be somewhat apathetic about elections, and politics in general, and because the fringe makes the news (and often producing the news shows that promulgate it) more often and with more "pizzazz", the middle is swayed by that. If we were more politically involved as a nation, perhaps we'd stop and say, "wait a minute. I don't want to let EITHER fringe set the agenda. And I don't want my politicians split into two factions that fight vehemently for control. I want politicians that actually care about ME, and the hundreds of millions like me." ...sigh... I know... I'm dreaming. At least for now. But the more of us that become actively involved, and work toward consensus as much as possible, the closer we come to a truly responsive form of government. ~~ Lane Baldwin - alifewithspirit.blofspot.com

Articles like this ignore

Articles like this ignore the fact that McCain who is now leading according to some polls has done so by moving more sharply right than ever before. He is hardly moving towards the Center. Perhaps this is a 'Center-Right' country as many suggest and most depressingly, if it is then how can Liberals ever hope to eventually move the whole nation if all they ever do is "move towards the Center" which validates the very Right principles that are destroying this country, its economy, and its future? The Right kept pushing until it won and now they have crippled our nation and our nation's future to secure wealth for a selfish top 10% of this country. The constant idea that Democrats have to move rightwards towards center does more to keep us in this painful pathetic slide than all other things.

Personally, I am not willing

Personally, I am not willing to give up those states. I don't think that they will necessarily go for McCain. It is still a long time until the election.

I hope that the idea is

I hope that the idea is gradually taking hold that most of us -- whether Liberal or Conservative -- can vote our principles. We don't have to endorse either candidate of the Duopoly; we have a Free Vote. Suppose you live in CA, or NY, or MA or MD; these states will go for Obama by large majorities. Suppose you live in ID, or UT, or TX, or TN; these states will go for McCain by large majorities. So if you live in the above states, or at least a dozen others, you can vote for whom you want, whether it be Cynthia McKinney, Bob Barr, Ralph Nader, or Ron Paul. So DO IT! It will further the goal that 80% of Americans share: to open up our political system to new ideas and new messages._ Best wishes, Alan McConnell