Women's March Into Office Slows
    By June Kronholz
    The Wall Street Journal

    Wednesday 15 August 2007

Pelosi, Clinton mark clear gains, but numbers seem to be dwindling.

    Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton could be elected president next year, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi would likely remain Speaker of the House assuming the Democrats retain control of Congress. But otherwise, women's long, steady march into public office could stall in 2008, and possibly even retreat.

    Women will surrender two of the nine governorships they now hold and face stiff competition over a third. All three women up for re-election in the Senate can expect withering opposition, including Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, whose seat is considered the Democrats' most vulnerable.

    The nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists 14 women among the 75 most vulnerable House members, including eight women who won office with less than 51% of the vote in 2006. And although women hold a quarter of all seats in state legislatures, "we've hit a plateau," says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics, a public-policy institute at New Jersey's Rutgers University.

    The bottom line: While women will cast about 53% of the votes in November 2008, based on the past two presidential elections, their share of elective offices seems to have leveled off at about one in six at the federal level, and one in four in the state capitals.

    The 2008 outlook for women isn't entirely gloomy. Niki Tsongas, widow of former Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, has the apparent lead in one of the first races of the political cycle, a Sept. 4 primary to fill a vacant House seat. Democrats are pinning their hopes on women to fill the open governor's seat in North Carolina and take the Senate seat in New Hampshire from Republican incumbent John Sununu.

    But even more seats have no female challengers. And although it is fairly early for most candidates to announce their plans, there is also little hint that many women are even thinking of a run.

    Moreover, the issues likely to dominate the 2008 campaign - Iraq, national security and immigration - generally have worked against women candidates in the past. "Any issues that require toughness rather than compassion, women [candidates] have trouble with," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

    The main reason for the apparent slowdown: Women remain less likely to run for public office than men. They first need to be recruited and assured of their qualifications, research shows. "Women tend to run because they're concerned about an issue; they don't wake up thinking they want to be governor the way men do," says Jeanne Shaheen, a former three-term governor of New Hampshire who is now the director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics.

    Women are also still less likely than men to enter highly competitive races, and more likely to enter a race only if they know they will face a woman rather than a man, says Jennifer Lawless, a Brown University political scientist. Her research also shows that when a woman does decide to run, she is as likely to win office as a man.

    The mixed outlook for 2008 contrasts with the increasingly pivotal role of women voters, who outnumbered men voters by 8.8 million in 2004. Women's votes historically have trended Democratic, but the Republican Party aggressively targeted them with issues such as education in 2000 and homeland security in 2004.

    President Bush failed to win a majority of women's votes in either of those elections, but his share of their votes increased enough in 2004 to enable him to win the popular vote. In 2006, female voters supplied the margin of victory in three Senate races - Missouri, Montana and Virginia - where Republican defeats enabled Democrats to take control of the chamber.

    Women's biggest advances in politics came in the early 1990s, particularly in 1992 when the number of women in the House and Senate jumped to 54 seats from 32. Last year, women won a record 16 seats in the Senate and 70 in the House out of 535 total in both chambers.

    Even so, women's advocates found it a disappointing year. Of 30 House seats that switched from Republican to Democratic control, only four went to women. With 15 months before the 2008 election, it seems possible the number of female officeholders will hold even at best, and could well drop.

    With control of the Senate in the balance, that chamber's three women up for re-election will face tough races. New Orleans voters provided Ms. Landrieu's base in her two previous Senate victories, but no one knows how many of them remain in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina wrecked the city.

    Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins has distanced herself from Mr. Bush's policy on Iraq. But if voters are as irate about the war next year as they were in 2006, "there may be nothing she can do," says Jennifer Duffy, who follows Senate elections for the Cook Political Report.

    That same wave could hit North Carolina Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who also catches flack from Republicans because their party lost Senate control in 2006 when she headed their campaign committee. And if Sen. Clinton were to win the presidency, she would give up her New York Senate seat.

    One potential Senate bright spot for women so far is New Hampshire, where Democrats are hoping to recruit Ms. Shaheen, the former governor, to challenge Mr. Sununu, who also is vulnerable because of Iraq.

    In the House, five first-term lawmakers - four Democrats and one Republican - squeaked into office by such narrow margins that they face rough re-election campaigns. Already, Republican male incumbents defeated by Democrats Nancy Boyda of Kansas and Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire last year have said they will run again.

    At least six other Republican women also could be in danger, though four of them - Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt of Ohio and Marilyn Musgrave of Colorado - are expected to face female Democratic challengers.

    As for governors' seats, Louisiana Democratic Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco isn't running for re-election this fall for a term that ends January 2008. Delaware Democrat Ruth Ann Minner will leave office in January 2009 because of term limits. Neither race has yet attracted a woman candidate.

    Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire could face Dino Rossi, the Republican candidate she defeated by 133 votes in 2004. Among the eight other governors' races this cycle, a female candidate has come forward only in North Carolina, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue is running for an open seat on a pledge to bring more defense-related industries to the state.