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'Moscow Wants to Politicize an Energy Conflict' •
Germany Warns Russia over Ukraine Gas Blockade •
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The Gas War
Le Monde | Editorial
Monday 02 January 2006
The first war of the Twenty-first Century has been declared. One country has
just cut another's energy supply because it won't bow to its demands. Russia,
the world's premier gas producer, has just pushed the button on the energy weapon.
In the middle of winter, Vladimir Putin has turned off the spigot that allowed
50 million Ukrainians to warm themselves and that powered their economy.
With accelerated global development and the surge of giant consumers like China
and India, raw materials have become weapons of mass economic deterrence, if
not destruction. A new geopolitics is forming that places producing countries
like Russia in a position of strength and that forces net buyer countries like
China to develop a diplomacy of secured supply with, for example, Africa and
the Middle East.
Moscow demands that Ukraine begin paying the market price (the one paid by
Western Europeans) for its gas now and that it benefit no longer from the exemptions
once reserved for Comecon countries. This demand is not illegitimate, but it
intervenes with excessive brutality, and Ukraine is right to ask for a staggering
of increases over time. Above all, this demand arises a year after the "Orange
Revolution" in Kiev that saw the election of pro-Western Viktor Yuchtchenko
to power. Therefore, one cannot fail to detect a desire on Vladimir Putin's
part to punish a former satellite that is breaking away.
No compromise has been found up to now, and Russia has put its threat to cut
off supplies to the Ukrainians into execution.
Europe, on the side of consuming regions, is rightly worried. A quarter of
its gas comes from Russia via Ukrainian pipelines. But that dependence is as
high as 40% for Austria and Germany. European Commissioner Andris Piebalgs has
convoked a meeting this Wednesday in Brussels to assess the import of the Russian-Ukrainian
dispute.
A priori, there is no reason to fear a shortage, especially
in France. Kiev promises not to remove any gas from the amounts intended for
Western Europe that cross its territory. That, in fact, would violate commercial
agreements and internationalize the conflict. It's not certain that would be
in the interests of the Ukrainian government. But it is also natural that it
would seek to obtain European Union assistance against the Russian Bear by any
means possible
Energy independence is becoming crucial again, as it was in the 1970s. The
gas war tolls Mr. Putin's determination, but more generally a warning and a
reminder that we must urgently re-launch a European policy to secure energy.
Translation: t r u t h o u t French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher.
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'Moscow Wants to Politicize an Energy Conflict'
By Séverine De Smet
Le Nouvel Observateur
Monday 02 January 2006
Interview with Thomas Gomart, Director
of the Russia Program/CEI of the Institut français des relations
internationales (Ifri)[French Institute for International Relations].
What geopolitical stakes are hiding behind the gas crisis between
Ukraine and Russia?
Since the Orange Revolution and Viktor Yuchtchenko's accession to power, their
relations have deteriorated considerably.
What does Ukraine represent to Russia? First of all, Ukraine remains Russia's
historic cradle. Russians are perpetually seeking a new national identity, and
for them it's important to maintain a connection to Ukraine. All the more so
as the country is indispensable to every project for regional integration Vladimir
Putin desires. I am thinking especially about his "Space for Four,"
uniting Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. With the Orange Revolution,
Kiev put an end to that project - even if, at the last CEI Summit, Yuchtchenko
showed himself to be cautious with Russia.
Moreover, Ukraine remains a transit country for Russia's energy exports, especially
gas. Now, Russia applies a geopolitical logic that aims to control transit countries
as much as possible. It's impossible to do with oil, so the Russians fall back
on gas. From point A to point B, it's easier to apply transportation oversight
with gas.
Finally, Russia suffers NATO and EU enlargement since the fall of the Berlin
Wall with difficulty. It painfully watches as its zone of influence is reduced.
The only means to exercise its international superiority remains control of
the energy issue. This instrumentalization, which, as we observe today, has
become systematic, goes along with an internal political situation controlled
by giants like Gazprom.
Ukraine finds itself in a more delicate situation. It depends on Russia for
its energy. That country has applied preferential pricing to its Ukrainian neighbor
in the CEI framework. If Kiev wants to get closer to the EU, Russia says, "Okay,
but in that case, prices will be the same as for other European countries."
With the approach of the March 2006 legislative elections, Yuchtchenko finds
himself in a very uncomfortable situation. Russia has obviously chosen not to
make it any easier for him. The basis of his foreign policy resides in European
integration. Kiev uses its crossroads position to get closer to the EU and NATO.
But in this crisis, how will the EU react to a rupture in Russo-Ukrainian relations?
I think that Europe, enmeshed in the Turkish problem, would not want to encumber
itself with an additional weight.
In the Kiev-Moscow rivalry, which can prevail?
Right now, Moscow dominates. But it must remain cautious and not push the conflict
too far. That would be negative for its image. Then you'd see a resurgence in
international criticism of post-colonial Russia. People forget, however, that
Gazprom is at the heart of the Russian regime. Right now, Russia is seeking
to politicize an energy conflict.
The European Union imports more than a quarter of its gas. What can
the repercussions of this dispute be, especially for France?
Energy dependence is never a one-way street. Gazprom depends on the EU. The
gas giant wholly profits from high prices and solvent clients in Europe. There
is no benefit for it in a deterioration of its relations. I don't think there's
a risk of a crisis. With Algerian gas, France, moreover, is sheltered from any
shortage.
Translation: t r u t h o u t French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher.
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Germany Warns Russia over Ukraine Gas Blockade
By Meg Clothier and Nick Antonovics
Reuters
Monday 02 January 2005
Moscow/Berlin - Germany warned Russia on Monday that its unilateral decision
to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine could harm Moscow's economic relations with
the West.
Gas supplies through Ukrainian pipelines to Europe started to fall off dramatically,
at the height of winter, as a result of the Russian blockade, which has aroused
Western fears about insecurity in the energy sector.
Russia, which takes over the G8 chairmanship for the first time this month
and has sought to promote itself as a reliable energy source, cut its neighbor's
gas supplies on Sunday after Ukraine rejected Moscow's demand for a fourfold
price rise.
Ukraine accused Russia of blackmail on Monday, saying Moscow wanted to destabilize
its economy. Moscow accused it of stealing supplies that were destined for Europe
- which Ukraine in turn denied.
Russia said it had had no choice but to turn off the taps after Ukraine refused
to sign a new contract that would have ended the preferential price treatment
of the Soviet era.
German Economy Minister Michael Glos, whose country is Russia's biggest gas
customer, said Moscow must act responsibly.
"Thirty percent of our gas comes from Russia at the moment. That should
be increased," Glos told the German radio station WDR. "But it can
only be increased if we know that deliveries from the east are dependable."
"Russia has the G8 presidency and also here (in this dispute) one should
naturally act responsibly," Glos said.
Washington also stepped in.
"Such an abrupt step creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region
and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure,"
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement on Sunday.
Pipelines taking Russian gas to Europe cross Ukraine, and the cut in supplies
to Ukraine quickly affected central Europe. Austria, Hungary, Poland, Romania,
Croatia and Slovakia all reported a sharp fall in deliveries.
Ordinary European consumers are unlikely to be affected in the short term,
but any cut-off to industrial users could cause significant economic damage.
The Kremlin says the dispute is a commercial matter. But Kiev sees it as an
attempt to undermine its pro-Western government, with a parliamentary election
due in three months.
There was no indication from either side on Monday that talks were going on,
or of when they might resume.
Freezing Weather
Western Europe, where demand is near peak levels because of freezing weather,
imports 25 percent of its gas from Russia, most of it via pipelines running
across Ukraine.
Norway, Western Europe's biggest natural gas exporter, said it was producing
at full capacity and would not be able to make up the shortfall.
The Russian state monopoly, Gazprom, said enough gas was still being piped
via Ukraine to supply other countries, and if they were not getting their gas,
Ukraine must be diverting it.
Gazprom said Ukraine had "stolen" gas destined for Europe worth more
than $25 million. Ukraine denied this but said it would take gas if temperatures
fell below freezing.
"A scenario aimed at creating economic pressure and blackmail has started,"
the Foreign Ministry in Kiev said.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said he wanted international experts
to help with negotiations, calling for a moratorium on prices rises while talks
go ahead.
"We think moving to market principles in the gas sector could secure a
resolution to the conflict about gas supplies and transit," he said during
a meeting with European ambassadors.
German, Italian, French and Austrian energy ministers have made a joint appeal
to Moscow and Kiev to keep gas flows steady and an emergency European Union
meeting is due on Wednesday.
The Western-leaning Yushchenko is trying to take his state into the EU and
NATO. This annoys Moscow, which does not like any loss of influence over the
former Soviet Union.
Ukrainian officials say that is why the Kremlin is punishing Ukraine with a
huge price increase while giving Moscow-friendly ex-Soviet states such as Belarus
a much easier ride.
Yushchenko, struggling to live up his people's high hopes after the "Orange
Revolution" a year ago, says Ukraine is prepared to pay more for its gas
but will not agree to a big jump all at once. Moscow wants to raise the price
to $230 per 1,000 cubic metres from the current $50.
Ukraine had threatened to retaliate by raising the rent that Russia's navy
pays to use the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol as headquarters for its Black Sea
fleet.
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Additional reporting by Olena Horodetska in Kiev, Jo Winterbottom in
Milan and Boris Groendahl in Vienna.
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