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Defiant PM Says: I'll Face Down Iraq Protesters •
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Britain to Pull Troops from Iraq as Blair Says 'Don't Force Me Out'
By Peter Beaumont and Gaby Hinsliff
The Observer UK
Sunday 25 September 2005
Defence Secretary confident withdrawal will start
in May. Plan follows pressure for exit strategy.
British troops will start a major withdrawal from Iraq next May under detailed
plans on military disengagement to be published next month, The Observer can
reveal.
The document being drawn up by the British government and the US will be presented
to the Iraqi parliament in October and will spark fresh controversy over how
long British troops will stay in the country. Tony Blair hopes that, despite
continuing and widespread violence in Iraq, the move will show that there is
progress following the conflict of 2003.
Britain has already privately informed Japan - which also has troops in Iraq
- of its plans to begin withdrawing from southern Iraq in May, a move that officials
in Tokyo say would make it impossible for their own 550 soldiers to remain.
The increasingly rapid pace of planning for British military disengagement
has been revealed on the eve of the Labour Party conference, which will see
renewed demands for a deadline for withdrawal. It is hoped that a clearer strategy
on Iraq will quieten critics who say that the government will not be able to
'move on' until Blair quits. Yesterday, about 10,000 people demonstrated against
the army's continued presence in the country.
Speaking to The Observer this weekend, the Defence Secretary, John Reid, insisted
that the agreement being drawn up with Iraqi officials was contingent on the
continuing political process, although he said he was still optimistic British
troops would begin returning home by early summer.
'The two things I want to insist about the timetable is that it is not an event
but a process, and that it will be a process that takes place at different speeds
in different parts of the country. I have said before that I believe that it
could begin in some parts of the country as early as next July. It is not a
deadline, but it is where we might be and I honestly still believe we could
have the conditions to begin handover. I don't see any reason to change my view.
'But if circumstances change I have no shame in revising my estimates.'
The disclosures follow rising demands for the government to establish a clearer
strategy for bringing troops home following the kidnapping of two British SAS
troopers in Basra and the scenes of violence that surrounded their rescue. Last
week Blair's own envoy to Iraq, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, warned that Britain could
be forced out if Iraq descends so far into chaos that 'we don't have any reasonable
prospect of holding it together'.
Continued tension between the Iraqi police force, the Iraqi administration
and British troops was revealed again yesterday when an Iraqi magistrate called
for the arrest of the two British special forces soldiers. who were on a surveillance
mission when they were taken into custody by Iraqi police and allegedly handed
on to a militia.
For Blair, the question of withdrawal is one of the most difficult he is facing.
The Prime Minister has abandoned plans, announced last February, to publish
his own exit strategy setting out the milestones which would have to be met
before quitting: instead, the plans are now being negotiated between a commission
representing the Shia-dominated Iraqi government, and senior US and UK diplomats
and military commanders in Baghdad.
Senior military sources have told The Observer that the document will lay out
a point-by-point 'road map' for military disengagement by multinational forces,
the first steps of which could be put in place soon after December's nationwide
elections.
Each stage of the withdrawal would be locally judged on regional improvements
in stability, with units being withdrawn as Iraqi units are deemed capable of
taking over. Officials familiar with the negotiations said that conditions for
withdrawal would not demand a complete cessation of insurgent violence, or the
end of al-Qaeda atrocities.
According to the agreement under negotiation, each phase would be triggered
when key security, stability and political targets have been reached. The phased
withdrawal strategy - the British side of which is expected to take at least
12 months to complete - would see UK troops hand over command responsibility
for security to senior Iraqi officers, while remaining in support as a reserve
force.
In the second phase British Warriors and other armoured vehicles would be removed
from daily patrols, before a complete withdrawal of British forces to barracks.
The final phase - departure of units - would follow a period of months where
Iraqi units had demonstrated their ability to deal with violence in their areas
of operation.
Blair will tackle his critics over Iraq in his conference speech, aides said
this weekend, but would decline to give a public deadline for withdrawing troops.
He is expected to make several major interventions on the war in the coming
weeks, before a vote on the new constitution in mid-October, explaining how
Iraq could be steered towards a sufficiently stable situation to allow troops
to come home.
'What we are not going to set out is a timetable: what we are going to set
out is a process of developing that security capability,' said a Downing Street
source. 'We don't want to be there any longer than we have to be, the Iraqis
don't want us to be there any longer than we have to be, but the Iraqi Prime
Minister has made it very clear that our presence there is one that is necessary.'
It was revealed yesterday that an Iraqi judge issued the warrants for the arrest
of the two rescued soldiers, accusing them of killing one policeman and wounding
another, carrying unlicensed weapons and holding false identification.
The continuing preparations for a military withdrawal come, however, as officials
are bracing themselves for a new political crisis in Iraq next month, with what
many regard as the inevitable rejection of a new constitution by a two-thirds
majority in three provinces, sufficient to kill the document and trigger new
elections.
The same officials believe that a failure of the controversial constitution
- which Sunnis say favours the Shia majority - would require at least another
year of political negotiations, threatening any plans to disengage.
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Defiant PM Says: I'll Face Down Iraq Protesters
By Andy McSmith, Raymond Whitaker and Francis Elliott
The Independent UK
Sunday 25 September 2005
War critics dismissed as 'urban intellectuals'.
Most Britons want troops out, poll shows.
Tony Blair will signal this week that Labour should abandon "urban intellectuals"
who deserted it over the Iraq war. As the party's conference begins in Brighton
today he is determined to face down growing pressure for a withdrawal of British
troops.
He believes Labour will lose if it seeks to win back middle-class voters who
protested against the war at the last election and can rely instead on its heartland
to remain in power.
Mr Blair's hardline stance comes as a poll released last night showed that
a majority of Britons wanted UK troops to pull out. Senior military, diplomatic
and intelligence figures added their voices to the protest last night.
The Prime Minister's determination to ignore the issue was made clear yesterday
when party managers stifled a proposed debate on Iraq.
Mr Blair will make only a passing reference to the subject in his main conference
speech on Tuesday, most of which will be about the importance of improving choice
in health and education.
His strategy was made clear by one of his ministers last week who said that
" urban intellectuals" accounted for just 4 per cent of the vote.
Liam Byrne singled out Cambridge - lost to the Liberal Democrats on an anti-war
vote - as he argued that Labour must stick to economic issues. "If we win
back Cambridge but lose seats such as Crawley, we will be out of power."
The spectre of the conflict loomed over the eve of the gathering, however,
as senior military and diplomatic figures added their voices to calls for an
exit strategy.
The former top mandarin at the Ministry of Defence, Sir Michael Quinlan, told
The Independent on Sunday: "Perhaps we shall soon be - if we are not already
- doing more harm by staying as perceived occupiers than by departing."
Meanwhile a YouGov poll for Five News last night showed that 57 per cent of
those asked said yes to the question "should British troops pull out of
Iraq?" while 27 per cent said no.
Labour's conference managers ruled that there should be no discussion of a
resolution backed by two dozen constituency parties, which praised the late
Robin Cook's commitment to "a world order governed by rules" - fearing
that it would be used as an opening to attack the decision to go to war with
Iraq without full UN backing. Instead of a debate, the conference will hear
speeches in praise of Cook and of James Callaghan and Mo Mowlam, who also died
this year, led by the former Labour leader Neil Kinnock.
Gordon Brown last night appeared to accept Mr Blair's terms for an " orderly
transition" of power. In a newspaper interview, he said: " The programme
of reform and modernisation will continue when Tony steps down. "
However, a less rosy picture of the relationship was provided in a new book
on John Prescott. When the Deputy Prime Minister sought to persuade Mr Brown
to return to help Mr Blair win a third term this year, the Chancellor is said
to have snapped: "He's ratted on me and he will rat on you."
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