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Bush Fleshes Out Iraq Strategy Details    [

    Iraqi PM Reveals US Crackdown
    By Peter Beaumont and Paul Harris
    The Observer UK

    Sunday 07 January 2007

President set for showdown with Democrats as he pours in more soldiers.

    President Bush is to announce this week that up to 30,000 extra troops will be thrown into the battle for Baghdad. They will be part of a crackdown against insurgents and the largely Shia death squads who have brought Iraq to the brink of civil war.

    The final shape of Bush's new strategy began to emerge yesterday in a series of leaks and statements in Washington and Baghdad ahead of his announcement, expected on Tuesday.

    That strategy, it now seems certain, will focus on stabilising the capital through the deployment of five extra US brigades - between 10,000 and 30,000 soldiers - made available by extending tours of duty and accelerating the rotation of fresh troops into the country. An increase of 30,000 would bring the number of US troops in Iraq to 170,000. In addition, the US would pour new resources into a job creation programme - involving painting schools and cleaning streets - that could cost up to $1bn.

    Bush's apparent determination to send extra troops, rather than set a timetable for withdrawal, represents a rejection of the Iraq Study Group report, which said US policy was not working and urged talks with two of Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria. It also sets the stage for a major battle between a House and Senate newly under Democratic control, put into power largely because of US voters' misgivings over his conduct of the war.

    In the strongest indication of Bush's preferred strategy, Iraq's Shia Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki pre-empted Bush's statement by announcing that Iraqi security forces, backed by Americans, were about to implement a major crackdown on illegal armed groups from all sectarian factions in Baghdad. Maliki's speech was a US condition for deploying extra troops, insisted on by Bush in a two-hour teleconference with Maliki last Thursday.

    Iraqi forces will begin a neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood assault on militants over the next few days, as a first step in the new White House strategy to contain Sunni insurgents and Shia death squads, advisers to Maliki said.

    One of the neoconservative thinkers, whose views are believed to have influenced Bush, suggested the military action might last longer than expected. 'We need a long-lasting surge because we have to keep in mind that we face an enemy here that adapts to our strategy,' said Frederick Kagan, a military historian and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. 'If we do a short surge they will just wait us out. We need to surge for at least 18 months.'

    He added: 'The administration understands that they have reached the crossroads in Iraq. They know that any short-term or half measures will be fatal.'

    The fresh Bush strategy, to be carried out by General David Petraeus, the new US commanding officer of multinational forces in Iraq, is modelled on Operation Forward Together II, the attempt to retake no-go areas of Baghdad last summer and autumn.

    That operation faltered largely through a shortage of US manpower on the ground and Maliki's unwillingness to agree to raids against the Mahdi army, the Shia militia loyal to firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose assembly members supported Maliki's government.

    US and Iraqi troops used a tactic of 'take, hold and rebuild' - driving gunmen out of their strongholds - and following through after the fighting with military civil affairs teams bringing small but noticeable differences to the areas where they were operating, including electricity generation schemes, rubbish collection and repairing water and sewage systems. But when the troops moved on to new areas the gunmen returned.

    The emphasis of operations is also expected to shift from preparing Iraqi forces for a quick handover of responsibility to protecting the population.

    According to Maliki, military commanders in each area of Baghdad would have full powers to implement the scheme as they saw fit. 'We will depend on our armed forces to implement this plan and the multinational force will support our forces,' he said. 'They will intervene whenever they are called on.

    'There will be no refuge from this plan for anyone operating beyond the law, regardless of their sect or political affiliation,' he said, adding that the plan would continue until its aims were achieved.

    'We will come down hard on anyone who does not carry out their orders and does their job according to his political or sectarian background. We will pursue those people under the law and punish them most severely,' he said.

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    Bush Fleshes Out Iraq Strategy Details
    By Deb Riechmann
    The Associated Press

    Sunday 07 January 2007

Bush fleshes out war strategy details; as many as 20,000 additional troops could head to Iraq.

    Washington - President Bush worked Saturday to finish his new war plan that could send as many as 20,000 additional U.S. troops to Iraq and provide more money for jobs and reconstruction programs.

    In Washington, Bush, who will announce his plan as early as Wednesday, held discussions with his national security advisers and then headed out of the White House for a bike ride. In Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced that Iraqi forces would launch a new effort to wrest control of neighborhoods in the capital from Sunni insurgents and Shiite death squads.

    Military officials say Bush is considering sending two to five brigades up to 20,000 troops to help tamp down violence that is preventing political reconciliation and rebuilding efforts in Iraq. The idea of a troop buildup is getting a cool reception on Capitol Hill and from some military leaders who claim there is no military solution to the problems in Iraq where 140,000 troops already are deployed.

    "Based on the advice of current and former military leaders, we believe this tactic would be a serious mistake," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said in the Democratic radio address Saturday. Instead, Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi want Bush to begin pulling troops out in four to six months.

    "Our troops and their families have already sacrificed a great deal for Iraq," Reid said. "They have done their part. It's time for the Iraqis to do their part."

    Some military officials, familiar with the discussions, say Bush could initially dispatch 8,000 to 10,000 new troops to Baghdad, and possibly Anbar Province, and leave himself the option of sending more later if security doesn't improve.

    Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., say that, at a minimum, another three to five brigades should be sent to Baghdad and one more to Anbar province. About 3,500 to 4,000 troops are in a brigade.

    Most of the discussion about Bush's new plan has focused on U.S. troop strength, but the strategy he will unveil also will address political and economic issues. "The clear, hold and build counterinsurgency strategy requires a focus on all three," White House counselor Dan Bartlett said. "Our strategy will reflect that point."

    Military analysts say Army Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, who recently finished his tour as the No. 2 general in Iraq, has recommended a short-term jobs program. Others familiar with the plan say Bush is favoring: short-term jobs programs and extending micro-loans to small business; increasing the amount of money that military commanders can spend quickly on local projects to improve the daily lives of Iraqis.

    Bush is considering allocating more money for the Commander's Emergency Response Program, set up in 2003 to give field commanders money to solve local problems quickly and show American compassion and good will. The program was allocated $753 million in the 2006 budget year. The president also has expressed interest in shoring up job-training programs for Iraqis and the work being done by State Department teams that coordinate local reconstruction efforts in Iraq, according to those familiar with discussions.

    In a move reflecting Bush's aim to shift gears in Iraq, the White House on Friday announced that Bush has picked Adm. William Fallon, who commands American forces in the Pacific, to replace retiring Gen. John Abizaid as top U.S. commander in the Middle East, and will nominate Army Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, who headed the effort to train Iraqi security forces, to replace Gen. George Casey as top American general in Iraq. Casey is becoming Army chief of staff.

    Both Abizaid and Casey have expressed qualms in recent weeks about boosting U.S. forces in Iraq. Abizaid said an increase of 20,000 could not be sustained for long by the overburdened American military, and Casey said such a boost should be used only to advance U.S. strategic goals.

    Last summer, the U.S. military and Iraqi army flooded the capital with 12,000 additional troops to quell violence. By October, the U.S. military said the operation had not met expectations and the situation was disheartening. And the second half of last year ended up being one of the most violent periods in the central and western sections of the Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

    Bush is expected to continue his briefings with lawmakers next week, culminating in a meeting with bipartisan leadership on Wednesday, according to lawmakers and aides.