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The Real Delegate Count
By Scott Galindez
t r u t h o u t | Perspective
Monday 14 January 2008
Barack Obama 9
Hillary Clinton 9
John Edwards 4
The Associated Press and other media outlets are trying to tell us they know
how many delegates each candidate will get out of Iowa, just as I told you they
would in a previous article.
Florida and Michigan make the delegate count even more confusing.
David Redlawsk, an associate professor of political science at the University
of Iowa, who teaches a course on the Iowa caucuses, confirmed the numbers the
media is projecting for Iowa delegate allocation is nothing more than a prediction.
He said it bothers him the media is reporting these numbers as if they are factual
since it is very unlikely the final count will be the same after the district
level conventions, where delegates to the national convention will be chosen.
He also pointed out the super delegate count could also change dramatically
since none of them are committed to remain with the candidates they now say
they are supporting.
The Associated Press is reporting: "In the overall race for the
nomination, Clinton leads with 187 delegates, including separately chosen party
and elected officials known as super delegates. She is followed by Obama with
89 delegates and Edwards with 50."
While there is some truth to this, the "super delegates," like the
Iowa county convention delegates, (which was all that was decided in Iowa),
can change their minds anytime they want.
For example, Senator Kerry endorsed Obama yesterday, but if Hillary Clinton
starts running the table, he will likely vote for Clinton at the convention
to show party unity.
If the race remains neck and neck the super delegates could decide it. That
is a scenario that favors Hillary, since she has the establishment Democrats
on her side.
What Happened in 2004?
Howard Dean had amassed the most super delegates before the Iowa caucuses.
But many had buyers' remorse, and some abandoned him once he finished a weak
third in Iowa.
Democratic powerbroker (and super delegate) Gerald McEntee, head of the American
Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, who had thrown his union
behind Dean in November 2003, announced two weeks after Dean's loss in New Hampshire
that he was abandoning him. We will see the same thing after February 5. Super
delegates will be jumping on the ship of the candidate with the momentum, and
abandoning ship of the candidates who are not looking like the eventual nominee.
How Many Super Delegates Are There?
There are 852 super delegates, roughly 40 percent of the amount of delegates
needed to win the nomination. The category includes Democratic governors and
members of Congress, former presidents Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, former
vice president Al Gore, retired Congressional leaders such as Dick Gephardt
and all Democratic National Committee members, some of who are appointed by
party chairman Howard Dean.
There are 3,515 pledged delegates that are selected by the primary and caucus
system.
Why Super Delegates?
Many see the system as undemocratic. It was set up as a safety net for party
leaders to correct a "mistake" by the voters. It was a reaction to
the McGovern nomination in 1972, and partly the Carter nomination in 1976. McGovern
was seen as someone outside the mainstream. Party leaders wanted a way to influence
the nominating process and rescue the party from a nominee they didn't think
could win. They also felt Jimmy Carter didn't have the name recognition or experience;
so if they had the system, then they probably would have attempted to block
his nomination.
What About Florida and Michigan?
Damien Lavera, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, confirmed
Florida and Michigan have been stripped of all of their delegates. And when
asked if that could change, he said he would not speculate on hypothetical situations,
and they were focusing on nominating a candidate within the existing rules.
The Florida Democratic Party sent the following press release out in December:
"No matter what anybody says, Florida Democrats will make the primary count
by going to the polls and casting their votes on January 29th. The nation will
be paying attention, and Florida Democrats will have a major impact on the race.
"Accordingly, the Florida Democratic Party will respect the voters' choice
on January 29th in determining the allocation of our delegates to the 2008 Democratic
National Convention. We are confident that the Democratic Presidential nominee
will seat Florida's delegation at the Convention."
The key is the nominee, which might be the case if a candidate is so far out
in front it won't matter if they are seated. If the race is close, however,
the situation in Michigan could complicate things.
Michigan voters are going to the polls on Tuesday, and they will not see the
names of Barack Obama or John Edwards on the ballot. Hillary Clinton, Dennis
Kucinich and Mike Gravel will be on the ballot.
Sen. Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who led the effort for an early Michigan
primary, defended the move on Friday as a way to break the lock Iowa and New
Hampshire have as the first states where voters can make decisions. He and others
say larger, more diverse states, such as Michigan, should have more influence
with early primaries.
Levin urged Democrats to vote for either Clinton or uncommitted.
Levin said despite the national party's threats to the contrary, Michigan's
156 delegates will be seated at the Democratic National Convention in August.
He said seating those delegates would open the door for states to challenge
and change the national party rules that require Iowa, New Hampshire, South
Carolina and Nevada to hold the earliest primaries.
Levin said it's unimaginable the convention would deny seats to delegates from
such large, politically important states as Florida and Michigan.
"Why would any convention say we're not going to seat delegates from two
critical states in order to protect the privileged position of New Hampshire
and Iowa?" Levin said. "Why would a convention do anything to self-destruct?"
US Rep. John Conyers and his wife, Detroit City Councilwoman Monica Conyers,
will begin airing radio ads this week urging voters to cast their ballots for
uncommitted.
Detroiters for Uncommitted Voters, a group of mostly Obama supporters, wants
to make sure people vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, even if their
candidate isn't on the ballot.
"We really want to educate people on what they should do," said Edna
Bell, a former Wayne County commissioner. "If Michigan voters want change,
the uncommitted vote is their way to make their voices heard."
It's presumed most uncommitted delegates will favor Obama or Edwards, but,
once at the convention, they can support any candidate in contention for the
Democratic nomination.
But what if the uncommitted campaign is not successful? Could Clinton walk
off with most of the delegates? While it is possible, Florida probably has it
right. It will be the nominee who will have influence over the credentials committee
at the convention. So if Michigan's 156 delegates won't affect the outcome, then
the eventual nominee will likely tell his/her supporters to seat the delegates.
If the race is extremely close, all bets are off.
Scott Galindez is Truthout's Washington, DC Bureau Chief.
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