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How Clinton Won California
By Josh Harkinson
Mother Jones
Wednesday 06 February 2008
The big surprise is not that Clinton won among women (59 percent to 34 percent)
and Latinos (2 to 1). Those votes more or less met expectations. What few people
had anticipated was the massive turnout among Latinos, who comprised 29 percent
of the California Democratic electorate yesterday-nearly double what pollsters
predicted.
As Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden pointed out in their recent Mother Jones
feature, Latino voters embody one of two major demographic waves that will change
the nation's politics. That they turned out in such huge numbers to support
Clinton might indicate they actually really like her, as opposed only to preferring
her over an African American or recognizing her name. Or maybe Latinos were
politicized even more than anyone had thought by the immigration debate.
Obama has been riding the second major demographic trend-the rise of the Millennial
Generation, or Gen Y, a huge, liberal-leaning echo-boom. Nationally, he captures
a larger overall chunk of this vote. But last night in California, age was trumped
by race. White voters under 30 broke for Obama 2 to 1 but Hispanic voters under
30 broke for Clinton by an even larger margin. And each group voted in equal
numbers. Needless to say, if that trend persists across the West and in places
like Texas, Obama is in trouble.
Obama's challenge is embodied by people like Eric Hernandez, who I profiled
last week and hung out with again last night. Hernandez is 18-years old, Latino,
and a hard-working Obama partisan. On Saturday he spent the day block-walking
with a group of 15 young people in the large Hispanic neighborhoods of Northern
California's Santa Clara County. But only about half of those volunteers spoke
Spanish. That kind of outreach in a county of 500,000 Latinos is a drop in the
bucket. Santa Clara ultimately went for Clinton 55/40. In the coming races Obama
will need need to enlist many more Spanish-speaking volunteers if he still expects
the grassroots to animate his campaign.
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