Also see:
AOL/Microsoft-Hotmail Preventing Delivery of Truthout Communications •
Ohio Back in the Spotlight
By Scott Galindez
t r u t h o u t | Report
Monday 25 February 2008
In 2004, Kenneth Blackwell, long lines and accusations of problems with voting
machines dominated the headlines. Ohio and Florida were the battleground states
everyone pointed to as the bellwethers in the race between Kerry and Bush.
In 2008, both states are back in the spotlight. Florida would rather not be;
they broke the rules and had their delegates stripped, but Ohio is in the position
every state wants. They are in a position to decide if the race for the Democratic
Party nomination should continue, or if it's time to crown the nominee.
If Ohio and Texas give Sen. Hillary Clinton wins by substantial margins, the
race goes on, but if the margins are close or Sen. Barack Obama wins one of
the states, he will be the Democratic Party nominee.
The Clinton campaign has pointed to Ohio and Texas as their firewall for the
last month. It may have been a big mistake. The rules in Texas favor Obama,
and the demographics in Ohio are similar to Wisconsin, a state in which he trounced
Clinton.
The Clinton campaign has poured a lot of resources into Ohio, and even former
President Bill Clinton has described the state as a must win.
The polls in Ohio have Senator Clinton ahead by 7 to 9 points; two weeks ago
she was up by 14 to 21. The reason the Clinton campaign felt good about Ohio
is, prior to February, she was the choice of blue-collar workers. In recent
contests, however, Obama has been winning that vote. Mark Penn, the chief strategist
for Clinton, dismisses those gains by Obama. "We were out spent significantly
in those states; that is not going to happen in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania,"
said Penn.
The Clinton camp needs to regain its advantage among white blue-collar voters
to have a chance in Ohio. The Obama campaign is aggressively courting them.
The endorsements of four major national unions, including the Teamsters and
SEIU, are a big boost in those efforts. The United Food and Commercial Workers
Union is airing spots for Obama in Ohio, a move that has come under fire by
the Clinton campaign. They say Obama is breaking a pledge to not accept assistance
from outside groups.
Obama's campaign has also angered the Clinton campaign for what they call misleading
mailings to Ohio voters.
"Shame on you, Barack Obama," Senator Clinton said at a news conference
on Saturday, holding the fliers and shaking them in the air as she spoke. "It
is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages in public. That's what
I expect from you. Meet me in Ohio. Let's have a debate about your tactics and
your behavior in this campaign."
The fliers in question criticize Senator Clinton's support of NAFTA and mandates
in her health care plan the Obama campaign says could lead to to forcing people
to buy something they can't afford.
The Clinton campaign says the health care mailing is no different than the
famous Harry and Louise ads that helped derail the Clintons' health care plan
in the early 90s. They also say Senator Clinton has been critical of NAFTA for
years and never used the word "boon" when describing it. Newsday has
recently admitted the word "boon" was a characterization of her position.
You can see the NAFTA flier by clicking on the following link: http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/B022508A.shtml.
You can see the image the Clinton campaign says is similar to the Harry and
Louise ads here.
Obama's campaign fired back, "Everything in those mailers is completely
accurate. We look forward to having a debate this Tuesday on the facts, and
the facts are that Senator Clinton was a supporter of NAFTA and the China permanent
trade treaties until this campaign began."
Its statement added that, on health care, Clinton "herself has said that
under the Clinton health care plan, she would consider 'going after the wages'
of Americans who don't purchase health insurance, whether they can afford it
or not."
Obama responded at a news conference later in the day, saying he's puzzled
why Clinton brought up the mailers now because they had been circulating for
days. "It makes me think there is something tactical about her getting
so exercised this morning," Obama said.
The Demographics in Ohio Are Similar to Wisconsin
In an article for the Washington Examiner, Philip Elliott wrote, "Senator
Clinton's Democratic presidential campaign had counted on support from women,
and less educated and less affluent voters. They weren't there for her in Wisconsin;
if the trend continues, they might not be there for her in Ohio."
Rival Barack Obama claimed those demographics Tuesday and completed a 10-state
string of wins that again shuffled the Democrats' nominating contest. As the
two head toward Ohio's March 4 primary, the state's demographics offer scant
reason for the Clinton camp's public optimism.
"He fractured her coalition totally," said Paul Maslin, who was a
pollster for former Democratic presidential candidate Bill Richardson, but is
unaffiliated in the current race. "If this is a preview of Ohio, she is
in trouble."
The African-American vote is smaller in Ohio, but could provide enough cushion
for Obama if he continues to tie Clinton among white voters as he has in recent
contests. In the 2004 general election, African-Americans made up 10 percent
of the vote. That number should be larger in the Democratic primary. Latinos
made up only 3 percent of the vote in 2004. Obama has been winning as much as
90 percent of the African-American vote, a number that gives him a significant
advantage in any state that has a significant African-American voting bloc.
Both sides are pointing to advantages they believe they have in the state.
Senator Clinton must win big here or Senator Obama will maintain his lead in
the popular vote and among pledged delegates. Those leads will be hard for the
"super delegates" to ignore.
Scott Galindez is Truthout's Washington, DC Bureau Chief.
-------
Jump to today's Truthout Features:
Print This Story
E-mail This Story