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Democratic Rivals Clash Before Pivotal Primaries •
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Democrats Expect No Knockouts
By R.G. Ratcliffe
The Houston Chronicle
Tuesday 04 March 2008
Austin - The monthlong political fight in Texas and Ohio concludes in
today's primaries, but the campaigns of U.S. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and
Barack Obama signaled Monday that neither expects a knockout punch for the Democratic
presidential nomination.
The expectations were lowered because the polls in Texas and Ohio showed the
race was too close to call.
Plus, the complex system of Texas delegates being chosen by both popular vote
and through caucuses makes it possible for the popular vote winner to come up
short in delegates.
A tracking poll Monday showed Clinton leading Obama 46.6 percent to 43.5 percent
in Texas and essentially tied in Ohio: Clinton, 44 percent; Obama, 44.4 percent.
The margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.
The Houston Chronicle, Reuters, C-Span tracking polls were conducted by Zogby
International.
On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John McCain is hoping to possibly clinch
his party's presidential nomination over his last remaining opponents, former
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Lake Jackson.
Clinton had started the race with a major lead over Obama in the two states,
but it rapidly eroded after the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" multistate
primaries. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has described Texas as
do-or-die for her campaign.
But Hillary Clinton told reporters in Ohio before coming to Texas on Monday,
"I'm just getting warmed up," pointing to upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania
and elsewhere.
Obama told reporters in San Antonio that he expects a strong showing in Texas
and Ohio, as well as in primaries in Rhode Island and Vermont, but he appeared
to be downplaying expectations of victory in all four states.
"We're working as hard as we can to try to do well," Obama said.
Stumping Across State
One sign of how the candidates feel about their chances in today's contests
is that Obama is holding his election night party in San Antonio, while Clinton's
will be in Columbus, Ohio.
Clinton's campaign pollster, Mark Penn, said the key to the elections is to
break the momentum Obama has developed.
"If Senator Clinton comes out of this having stopped the momentum and
in a position of significant strength, then this contest will, as it should,
go right through to the nominating convention because at the end of the day
no one can get to a majority of the delegates without the superdelegates deciding,"
Penn said.
Superdelegates are party leaders and elected officials who are free to vote
however they want at the nominating convention.
Clinton has been leading among the superdelegates, but her support has been
eroding in favor of Obama.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said a good day in Texas and Ohio would
be for Obama to maintain or slightly extend his delegate lead for the nomination.
"The mostly likely outcome is you're not going to see a huge delegate
shift one way or another," Plouffe said.
Plouffe said the Clinton campaign had begun by predicting huge victories in
Texas and Ohio that would erase Obama's delegate lead.
He said now Clinton's campaign is arguing that the fight will continue even
if that does not happen.
"They keep trying to move the goalpost, and at some point you run out
of field," Plouffe said.
Clinton held an Internet town hall meeting and a rally in Austin on Monday.
Obama met with veterans in San Antonio before rallies in Dallas and Houston.
Clinton touched on many of the themes that have defined her candidacy: universal
health care; teachers' pay; investing in clean renewable energy; and ending
the war in Iraq. Clinton said it now is up to the Iraqis to solve their problems.
"We've given them the gift of freedom.... Now it is up to them to determine
if they will take that gift," Clinton said.
In Houston, Obama took aim at energy companies that are a mainstay of the local
economy.
"All across Texas, people are going to the gas pump and they know it ain't
right," he told an enthusiastic crowd of a few thousand at the George R.
Brown Convention Center. "When Exxon Mobil is making $11 billion last quarter
and you can't fill up your gas tank, it ain't right."
Obama, who was introduced by his wife, Michelle, said he supported energy policy
that included raising fuel efficiency standards, curbing greenhouse gases and
seeking energy independence.
The Associated Press pledged delegate count on Monday was: Democratic: 2,025
delegates needed to win. Obama, 1,187; Clinton, 1,035.5. Republican: 1,191 needed
to win. McCain, 1014; Huckabee 257.
Record Vote Predicted
The early voting turnout in Texas has been heavy so far, with 890,188 Democrats
and 303,338 Republicans casting ballots in Texas' 15 most populous counties.
Secretary of State Phil Wilson is predicting a record 3.3 million Texans will
cast votes in the two party primaries.
The early voting would appear to favor Obama. In the state's largest
Hispanic counties, which have favored Clinton by 60 percent in the
tracking poll, there were 251,076 early votes cast. In Dallas and Harris
counties, where Obama has led by 60 percent, there were 300,109 early
ballots.
The tracking poll showed McCain leading in Texas 57 percent to
Huckabee's 28.8 percent.
On Monday, McCain had to cancel a Lubbock appearance because of bad
weather. He later held a town hall meeting in Waco.
Huckabee campaigned across Texas Monday, starting with television talk
shows in Houston before heading to Dallas and West Texas and then
returning to Houston for a late rally before several hundred supporters
at Westside Tennis Club.
After touching on the major themes of his conservative candidacy -
support for the Second Amendment, opposition to abortion, border
control, elimination of the Internal Revenue Service, greater defense
spending - Huckabee told the evening gathering not to give credence to
the polls or the predictions of his imminent demise.
"Texans are stubbornly independent," Huckabee said. "They don't
like
people telling them what they are going to do."
Huckabee was accompanied on his last-minute whirlwind through the state
by actor and former martial arts icon Chuck Norris, a major backer who
said Texas could put a stop to John McCain's momentum.
--------
Austin Bureau reporters Peggy Fikac and Lisa Sandberg, Houston Chronicle
reporters Bennett Roth and Mike Tolson and The Associated Press
contributed to this report.
r.g.ratcliffe@chron.com
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Democratic Rivals Clash Before Pivotal Primaries
By Elisabeth Bumiller and John M. Broder
The New York Times
Tuesday 04 March 2008
Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama battled over national security
and trade in a frantic burst of last-minute campaigning on Monday as Mrs. Clinton
accused Mr. Obama of deception and new evidence of discord surfaced within her
own camp.
With less than 24 hours to go before voting in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode
Island, Mrs. Clinton's campaign released a television advertisement accusing
Mr. Obama of being AWOL from his chairmanship of a Senate oversight committee
on the forces fighting in Afghanistan. "He was too busy running for president
to hold even one hearing," it said.
Mr. Obama's campaign, counterpunching, said Mrs. Clinton had herself
missed important hearings on Afghanistan before the Senate Armed Services Committee
last month.
The day was the latest installment in the riveting drama between two formidable,
historic candidates: the first woman to be a serious contender for president
and the charismatic young black man who has packed arenas across the country
and overtaken Mrs. Clinton in many polls and the delegate count.
Mrs. Clinton, facing calls from some Democrats to get out of the race should
she do poorly on Tuesday after 11 straight losses, appeared almost defiant as
she declared at the start of her day in Ohio, "I'm just getting
warmed up."
Then she charged that one of Mr. Obama's senior advisers had told Canadian
officials that Mr. Obama's opposition to the North American Free Trade
Agreement was largely a political tactic, not a serious policy position. Mr.
Obama denied that he was sending back-door messages to the Canadians and said
that the Clinton campaign was "throwing the kitchen sink" at him.
Mrs. Clinton had her own internal problems as reports of dysfunction and finger-pointing
rumbled through her operation.
In an e-mail message sent over the weekend to The Los Angeles Times, Mark Penn,
Mrs. Clinton's pollster, appeared to be distancing himself from the campaign's
operations when he said he had "no direct authority in the campaign."
Mr. Penn described himself as merely "an outside message adviser with
no campaign staff reporting to me."
Mr. Penn is a longtime friend of Bill and Hillary Clinton and serves -
as he invariably describes himself - as the campaign's chief strategist.
This means he is involved in directing the message presented by Mrs. Clinton
in her speeches and campaign advertisements, and the overall strategic thrusts
of the campaign. He has also often served as the voice of the campaign -
appearing on television and giving interviews pressing Mrs. Clinton's
cause.
On Monday night, Mr. Penn said his e-mail message to the newspaper had been
misunderstood. "This has been taken out of context and related to a very
narrow question of operations," Mr. Penn said in a telephone interview
with The New York Times. "Of course, I am the chief message adviser to
the campaign. We have a big day ahead of us and expect to be very successful."
On Monday, Mr. Obama faced continuing questions about his relationship with
the developer Antoin Rezko, who is now on trial in Chicago and accused of exploiting
political relationships with the Illinois governor, Rod R. Blagojevich, to obtain
millions of dollars in kickbacks on state contracts.
Mr. Obama is not implicated in any aspect of the case, but Mr. Rezko has contributed
$150,000 over the years to Mr. Obama's campaigns and helped him buy a
home. At the same time, Mr. Rezko bought an adjoining strip of land he later
sold to Mr. Obama.
At a news conference on Monday in San Antonio, Mr. Obama said he had already
acknowledged that he had erred.
"I brought a strip of land on an adjacent property that he had purchased;
I have said that was a mistake," Mr. Obama said. "I have been very
open about what I have called a boneheaded move."
Mr. Obama said there was no suggestion that he had betrayed the public trust
or given political favors to Mr. Rezko. He has not disclosed the number of fund-raisers
Mr. Rezko held for him.
The Clinton campaign has also found itself on the defensive over demands from
the Obama campaign that it release her records as first lady. On Monday, the
National Archives said Mrs. Clinton's schedules could be released later
this month, but asked a judge to delay the release of thousands of her telephone
logs for one to two years.
Showing the intensity of the contest, officials predicted a record turnout
among Democratic voters in Texas.
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain and Mike Huckabee also campaigned
in Texas on Monday - between them they appeared in Abilene, San Antonio,
Waco and Houston - but their race was genteel compared with the angry
tone of the Democrats.
At a news conference in Phoenix before leaving for Texas, Mr. McCain, the likely
Republican nominee, addressed a host of foreign policy topics, including the
Russian election and the attacks on Israel from Gaza. He also called on President
Hugo Chávez of Venezuela to withdraw his troops from the Colombian border.
When he was asked about the debate between Senators Clinton and Obama over
who would be better prepared to field a 3 a.m. phone call in the White House,
he said, "Well, I think many Americans, when they consider the three of
us, I would believe that my knowledge, and experience and background clearly
indicates that if the phone rang at 3 a.m. in the White House, and I was the
one to answer it, I would be the one most qualified to exercise the kind of
judgment necessary to address a national security crisis."
Mr. McCain's advisers had hoped that Mr. McCain would win enough delegates
on Tuesday to secure the 1,191 delegates necessary for the Republican nomination.
But even if Mr. McCain wins all of them - there are 256 Republican delegates
at stake on Tuesday - he will not have enough to claim the nomination,
according to tallies by The New York Times.
Nonetheless, The Associated Press has conducted a survey of superdelegates,
which would give Mr. McCain another 102 unpledged delegates. If those are included
in Tuesday's count, Mr. McCain might have enough if he wins handily on
Tuesday.
Mrs. Clinton began her day shaking hands at 5:35 a.m., when she stood just
inside the turnstile at Chrysler's Toledo North Assembly plant greeting
workers as if she were running for a city council seat. "Help me out tomorrow,
please," she implored as workers passed by. "I'd be honored
to have your vote."
The reactions varied. One worker was pulled along by the crowd and ended up
shaking Mrs. Clinton's hand. "Aw, man," he said. "Now
I have to go home and wash my hands." He declined to give his name. But
Deborah Young, 51, a vehicle inspector, was mildly awe-struck. "Isn't
she the coolest?" Ms. Young said.
On Monday evening, Mrs. Clinton made a brief detour from the campaign trail
to appear via satellite on "The Daily Show" on Comedy Central. Standing
at a rally in Austin, Tex., she took the first question from Jon Stewart, who
wondered why, with only one day left before the primaries on Tuesday, she was
taking time to appear on his show.
"It is pretty pathetic," Mrs. Clinton deadpanned.
--------
Reporting was contributed by Michael Powell from San Antonio, Michael
Cooper from Phoenix and by Julie Bosman, Adam Nagourney and Dalia Sussman from
New York.
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