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Zimbabwe Elections: Leader in Waiting
By Daniel Howden
The Independent UK
Thursday 03 April 2008
After days of uncertainty, it is official:
Robert Mugabe has finally lost control of Zimbabwe's parliament. How much longer
can he resist Morgan Tsvangirai?
Harare - It was a moment many believed they would never see. Zimbabwe's ruling party
lost control of parliament yesterday and this time the news was official.
One of the longest electoral teases in history finally delivered as Zimbabwe's
Electoral Commission confirmed that the opposition had won control of the House
of Assembly. Robert Mugabe's all-powerful Zanu-Patriotic Front was forced to
concede defeat and the only question that remains is whether the 84-year-old
will now follow suit and give up the presidency.
The respected opposition senator David Coltart, a long-time adversary of Mr
Mugabe, said the "Liberator's" options were shrinking. "The moment
the nation realises that he has lost the House of Assembly is the moment he
has lost in the national psyche," he explained.
The day began with The Herald newspaper, a government mouthpiece, declaring
the election was tied and predicting a run-off. This was already a serious concession
from a paper that closely reflects the thinking of the Mugabe regime, and had
previously predicted a crushing win for him.
In the space of a few dramatic and tense hours in the capital, Harare, the
opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) first announced that its man,
Morgan Tsvangirai, had won the presidency according to its figures. Then it
was the turn of the painfully prosaic Electoral Commission to confirm that the
ruling party had lost control of the parliament.
According to MDC figures, Mr Tsvangirai took 50.3 per cent of the vote in Saturday's
election to Mr Mugabe's 43.8 per cent, a share which if accepted would hand
him a narrow first-round victory. The MDC based its findings on publicly available
results posted outside polling stations nationwide and then collated by party
officials.
The official results of the presidential vote have still not been released
more than four days after polls closed. Already there are serious concerns among
independent observers that the commission has been "padding" Zanu-PF's
share.
The incomplete official count for the parliamentary poll showed the MDC had
taken 105 seats, a breakaway faction 9 and an independent one in the 210-seat
parliament, making it impossible for the ruling party, which gained 94 seats,
to win a majority.
The smaller opposition group has confirmed to The Independent that it will
help form a majority against Zanu-PF.
For a party and a president accustomed only to winning, the twin announcements
came as a huge shock. Bright Matonga, the deputy information minister, was initially
speechless on hearing the result, but then attempted to brazen it out: "We
don't have a problem; there is no panic here. That [the vote results] is the
wish of the people and we, Zanu-PF, respect that."
The competing announcements of the day were only the public face of frantic
political and diplomatic discussions behind the scenes.
The tale of two Harares is one of five-star hotels and luxurious havens surrounded
by disintegrating roads, burnt-out traffic lights and desperate, starving people.
The attempts to broker a negotiated settlement between the competing ambitions
of the security forces, opposition parties and governing elite take place in
the former - surreal place almost completely divorced from the struggles of
ordinary people.
One senior Western diplomat who had been convinced on Tuesday that there would
be no run-off was backtracking yesterday. "A run-off is looking more likely,"
he conceded.
Last night, calmer voices within the ruling party were attempting to caution
against any attempt to brush off the vote and declare a win, warning that the
loyalty of the rank-and-file in the army and police cannot be counted on.
Sources close to the back-channel communications between the rival parties
said the likeliest solution remained a negotiated settlement that would install
a power-sharing government presided over by Mr Tsvangirai.
However, as Zimbabwe's democratic drama entered its sixth day, no one could
be certain that logic would dictate the outcome.
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