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Missile Defense Strains US-Russia Ties •
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Russia's Aggressive Moves Spark Fears of a New Cold War
By Dave Montgomery
McClatchy Newspapers
Monday 17 September 2007
Washington - Lumbering Soviet-era bombers flying far outside Russian
airspace. Harsh recriminations of U.S. expansionism. The most vigorous military
modernization since the fall of communism more than 15 years ago.
With his country awash in oil-generated prosperity, President Vladimir Putin
is flexing Russia's muscles in a series of unsettling reminders of the Cold
War that raise the question: Just what is the former KGB spy and - by
extension, Russia - up to?
While U.S. officials and Russian experts generally don't envision a new Cold
War, many believe that Putin's recent moves are designed to assert Russia's
new vitality, create further distance from the West and re-energize the Kremlin's
influence over the vast landscape that it controlled during the Soviet era.
Now approaching his eighth and final year as Russian president, Putin, 54,
has seized on every opportunity to project a tough, virile image for himself
and his once-chaotic nation, including a much-publicized, shirtless stroll through
a Siberian stream that revealed his muscled physique.
The overall objective, said Eugene Rumer, a Russian expert at the National
Defense University in Washington, D.C, is to "show the flag" and tell
the world: "We're big boys ... we are a force in the international
arena and we'll position ourselves on our own terms."
Still, to those around during "duck-and-cover" exercises, the Cuban
Missile Crisis and Nikita Khrushchev's shoe-pounding rants at the United Nations,
some of Putin's actions have disturbing parallels to the Cold War, which officially
ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991:
- Aerial saber-rattling: Since mid-August, Tu-95 Strategic bombers, nicknamed
the "Bear," have been flying long-range missions close to NATO airspace,
prompting British and Norwegian fighters to scramble into the skies to intercept
and escort them away. Two Tu-95s also flew far into the Pacific, approaching
U.S. airspace in Guam.
Putin ordered the patrols on Aug. 17, resuming permanent airborne security
of Russia for the first time in 15 years.
- Another arms race? Putin has approved a seven-year, $200 billion rearmament
plan to revamp and modernize the military after years of decline following the
collapse of the Soviet empire, including next-generation aircraft, new intercontinental
missiles and a submarine base in the Pacific.
The arsenal also includes what Russia describes as the world's most powerful
non-nuclear air-delivered explosive, reputedly four times as powerful as a U.S.
bomb nicknamed "the mother of all bombs." Russians call theirs "the
dad of all bombs.'"
Defense Secretary Robert Gates has cited the "uncertain paths" of
Russia and China, as well as the two countries' "sophisticated military
modernization programs," in urging Congress to adopt President Bush's $463.1
billion defense budget.
- Tough talk. Pulling back from the pro-Washington embrace adopted by Boris
Yeltsin, his predecessor, Putin harshly criticized the United States this year
for overstepping its borders "in every way" and said that the expansion
of NATO reduces "the level of mutual trust."
Denouncing U.S. intentions to base missile-defense sites in Eastern Europe,
Putin has signaled Russia's intent to increase spying abroad and to pull out
of a conventional forces treaty in Europe. The Kremlin also has threatened to
deploy missiles closer to Europe unless Washington abandons the missile-defense
sites.
Putin sprang another surprise this week by naming Viktor Zubkov, an obscure
financial regulator, as prime minister following a shakeup of the government.
The selection fueled speculation that Putin, who is barred from a third consecutive
term, will run for the presidency again in 2012 after four years of a caretaker
president.
The Tu-95s that Putin has permanently assigned to patrol against unspecified
threats against Russia are themselves lingering reminders of the Cold War.
Propelled by four-turboprop engines on swept-back wings, the Bears first entered
service in 1952 and are comparable in size, shape and tenure to America's venerable
B-52, which also dates to the mid-'50s. A Russian hydrogen bomb that produced
the largest manmade explosion in history was dropped from a Tu-95.
The bombers Putin dispatched are armed with missiles but not nuclear weapons,
according to Russian officials. The latest Tu-95s have been upgraded with electronic
intelligence and have a range of more than 8,000 miles - more than enough
to reach the United States - but military analysts generally view them
as an insignificant threat to this country.
"It would not have the capability to penetrate any airspace that we would
not want it to penetrate," said retired four-star Gen. John T. "Jack"
Chain, who commanded the Strategic Air Command from 1986 until 1991. "When
it was born, it had awesome capability, but the world has changed since then."
Bush administration officials have taken a low-key approach to the flights,
saying Russia has a right to conduct the patrols in international airspace and
downplaying comparisons to the Cold War. Gen. T. Michael Moseley, the Air Force
chief of staff, said in a statement to McClatchy Newspapers that the long-range
missions serve "to remind us that the international security environment
is complex, dynamic and uncertain."
Putin is able to finance his country's military modernization through the oil
wealth that has boosted the Russian economy by an average of 26 percent each
year since 1999, reversing years of economic decline following the collapse
of the Soviet state. Russia is spending about $32 billion on its military, but
the expenditure is less than 3 percent of its gross domestic product and is
only a fraction of the more than $400 billion spent by the United States.
Most military analysts say that the Russian military, while improving, hasn't
recovered fully from the post-Soviet decline and is still inferior to the U.S.
military.
Lockheed Martin's F-22 is superior to anything in the Russian fighter fleet
and just over half of Russia's 200 bombers are "in useable condition,"
said Richard Aboulafia, an aircraft analyst with the Teal Group of Fairfax,
Va.
But he adds: "They've got just enough of a strategic force to make a nuisance
of themselves."
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Missile Defense Strains US-Russia Ties
By Desmond Butler
The Associated Press
Sunday 16 September 2007
Two rounds of talks on a Russian proposal for missile defense cooperation with
the U.S. have failed to narrow differences that have strained relations, officials
from both countries say.
The U.S. hopes technical experts who plan to visit a Russian-operated radar
in Azerbaijan on Tuesday can help jump-start the talks with new ideas for cooperation.
Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, has suggested the countries could share
the mammoth installation and a second radar under construction in southern Russia
as part of U.S. efforts to defend against the potential threat from Iranian
missiles.
Putin surprised the U.S. with the proposal in June. It followed months of criticism
of U.S. negotiations to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland and a radar
in the Czech Republic, both former Soviet satellites.
The disagreement over missile defense has become a high-priority issue raised
repeatedly in direct talks between Putin and President Bush.
The United States says the European system is intended to counter Iranian missiles
that could be aimed at Europe or U.S. territory. Russia contends the system
also could be used against Russian missiles and threatens its nuclear deterrence.
To explore ways of resolving the differences, Bush and Putin agreed to a series
of talks led by Assistant Secretary of State John Rood and Russian Deputy Foreign
Minister Sergei Kislyak. The two sides met in Washington in July and again in
Paris last week.
The talks have made little progress.
The U.S. says it hopes Russia will contribute to U.S. plans to build a missile
shield in Europe that would include the Czech and Polish bases. Russia says
it will not help the U.S. counter an Iranian threat unless the European plans
are canceled.
Following the Paris talks, Rood said the U.S. had offered proposals on how
the two sides could work together. Those ideas, however, did not deal with the
disagreement over the terms of cooperation, said a U.S. official who works on
missile defense issues and spoke on condition of anonymity.
"I think we are both in the same place as we were before," said the
official, who was not authorized to speak for attribution.
A Russian official, who also requested anonymity because he was not authorized
to speak to the press, agreed that the two sides were far apart.
"Nothing has changed in the U.S. position during the talks," said
the official. "There is still a completely different understanding of the
substance of President Putin's proposal."
The U.S. hopes Tuesday's meeting at the Azerbaijan radar site will spark ideas
for a third round of talks to be held in Moscow next month.
The Bush administration is interested in the radars that Putin has offered,
but as an additional asset for the system planned for Central Europe, not as
a substitute. The radar in Gabala, Azerbaijan, is of a type that could not perform
the same function as the one planned for the Czech Republic.
The U.S.-built radar would track a missile after it had been detected by other
means. The missile defense system also would need other radars to detect missile
launches. While the U.S. has some of those capabilities, the Gabala facility's
proximity to Iran could help the system identify missile trajectories earlier.
"What the Gabala radar would help you do is acquire targets," said
Theodore Postol, a physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Putin has proposed a different idea: using the radars as a way of monitoring
the development of Iran's missile program. While the U.S. estimates Iran could
become capable of launching an intercontinental missile by about 2015, Russia
believes Iran is decades away.
According to Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a national
security policy institute in Washington, the Gabala facility has eavesdropping
capabilities beyond its massive radar.
"The radar is Russia's eyes and ears in the Middle East," he said.
But the U.S. says it will not consider delaying its European plans while the
two sides monitor what the administration consider a clear threat from Iran.
"The United States is saying `Sure, we will talk to you, but we are going
to continue building while we talk,'" said retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert
Gard, a military fellow at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
"That is not a position that will lead to much progress."
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